Wage Growth and Inflation in Europe: A Puzzle?

Wage Growth and Inflation in Europe: A Puzzle?
Author: Vizhdan Boranova
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 40
Release: 2019-12-20
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1513521276

Wages have been rising faster than productivity in many European countries for the past few years, yet signs of underlying consumer price pressures remain limited. To shed light on this puzzle, this paper examines the historical link between wage growth and inflation in Europe and factors that influence the strength of the passthrough from labor costs to prices. Historically, wage growth has led to higher inflation, but the impact has weakened since 2009. Empirical analysis suggests that the passthrough from wage growth to inflation is significantly lower in periods of subdued inflation and inflation expectations, greater competitive pressures, and robust corporate profitability. Thus the recent pickup in wage growth is likely to have a more muted impact on inflation than in the past.

European Wage Dynamics and Spillovers

European Wage Dynamics and Spillovers
Author: Yuanyan Sophia Zhang
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 29
Release: 2019-07-19
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1498319297

Wage rises have remained stubbornly low in advanced Europe in recent years, but, at the same time, newer EU members are experiencing rapid wage acceleration. This paper investigates the drivers of this wage divergence. Econometric analysis using error correction models suggests that wage growth responds more quickly to changes in unemployment in the newer EU members than in advanced Europe, where wages are more closely related to inflation and inflation expectations in the short run, implying greater inertia in nominal wage rises in advanced Europe. In the years after the global crisis, this inertia contributed to the build up of a real wage overhang relative to sharply slowing labor productivity, which subsequently dragged on nominal wage rises even as unemployment began to decline. Spillovers of subdued wage growth between euro area countries also weighed on wage rises in advanced Europe.

Inflation and Wage Behaviour in Europe

Inflation and Wage Behaviour in Europe
Author: Paul de Grauwe
Publisher: Oxford University Press
Total Pages: 372
Release: 1996
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 9780198289869

The Maastricht Treaty makes the convergence of inflation rates one of the preconditions of European Monetary Union (EMU). The purpose of this study is to shed light on the mechanism underlying the processes that lead to convergence or divergence in national inflation rates. It examinesinflation and wage bahaviour in the European Monetary System (EMS), their determinants, and their implications for the credibility and sustainability of the system's exchange rate mechanism (ERM). Although the focus is on the EMS period, eleven of the twelve studies also review the background of the1970s. The contributors examine issues of monetary control, stability of national and ERM-wide money-demand function, the monetary policy of Germany - the pivotal country in the EMS - and its influence on the stability of the system after the fall of the Berlin Wall. As well as explaining how theEMS worked, the book also offers reasons for its breakdown in 1992-3 under the blow of exogenous shocks and growing policy conflict between member countries.The study identifies several causes of inflation and persistent inflation differentials in the EMS. Among the 'real' causes, particular attention is devoted to sectoral productivity shocks. In some countries, import price shocks, exogenous wage pushes, taxes, and government expenditure are bound tobe important factors. Since theses kinds of shock hit the various economies of the region differently, inflation differntials can persist for several years. The different policies of governments and central banks, and the fact the monetary policies have not always been consistent with the long-runmaintenance of fixed exchange rates, have also played a considerable role in explaining the persistance of inflation differentials.

The Links Between Economic Activity and Inflation

The Links Between Economic Activity and Inflation
Author: Marianne Ojo D Delaney PhD
Publisher:
Total Pages: 36
Release: 2019
Genre:
ISBN:

Vlieghe (2018:7) refers to the “'exchange rate effects” of inflation and in this sense, a distinction is made between inflation which is attributed to a rise in prices, namely import prices - when the rate of exchange makes it more expensive for products to be imported - with the resulting effects that price increases are passed on to consumers.The central bank effect, as will be further highlighted in this paper, refers to the possible impact/s generated by central bank officials in responding to achieve inflation targets, by raising or lowering interest rates - and can hence be referred to as “the interest rate effect.”Daly (2019:4) on the other hand, argues that the “Fed Wedge” has contributed to the weakening of the link between economic activity and inflation.Why can some economic indicators still be considered to be applicable and relevant - even in an environment where so many advancements and financial instruments have significantly altered the financial landscape which existed over the years?In particular, why can the Philips Curve still be considered applicable and relevant - with reference to wage inflation and productivity? More importantly, what economic indicators can serve to provide more reliable indicators of inflationary levels once more temporary elements, as induced by import prices, have diminished?

The Missing Inflation Puzzle

The Missing Inflation Puzzle
Author: Sebastian Heise
Publisher:
Total Pages: 0
Release: 2020
Genre:
ISBN:

Price inflation in the U.S. has been sluggish and slow to pick up in the last two decades. We show that this missing inflation can be traced to a growing disconnect between unemployment and core goods inflation. We exploit rich industry-level data to show that weakening pass-through from wages to prices in the goods-producing sector is an important source of the slow inflation pick-up in the last two decades. We set up a theoretical framework where markups and pass-through are a function of firms' market shares and show that increased import competition and rising market concentration reduce pass-through from wages to prices. We then use industry-level data and find strong support for these two channels consistent with the implications of our model.

The Missing Inflation Puzzle

The Missing Inflation Puzzle
Author: Sebastian Heise
Publisher:
Total Pages: 0
Release: 2022
Genre:
ISBN:

Price inflation in the U.S. has been sluggish and slow to pick up in the last two decades. We show that this missing inflation can be traced to a growing disconnect between unemployment and core goods inflation. We exploit rich industry-level data to show that weakening pass-through from wages to prices in the goods-producing sector is an important source of the slow inflation pick-up in the last two decades. We set up a theoretical framework where markups and pass-through are a function of firms' market shares and show that increased import competition and rising market concentration reduce pass-through from wages to prices. We then use industry-level data and find strong support for these two channels consistent with the implications of our model.

Regional Economic Outlook, October 2019, Europe

Regional Economic Outlook, October 2019, Europe
Author: International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 34
Release: 2019-11-06
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1513516949

Economic activity in Europe has slowed on the back of weakness in trade and manufacturing. For most of the region, the slowdown remains externally driven. However, some signs of softer domestic demand have started to appear, especially in investment. Services and domestic consumption have been buoyant so far, but their resilience is tightly linked to labor market conditions, which, despite some easing, remain robust. Expansionary fiscal policy in many countries, and looser financial conditions, have also supported domestic demand. On balance, Europe’ s growth is projected to decline. A modest recovery is forecast for 2020 as global trade is expected to pick up and some economies recover from past stresses. This projection, broadly unchanged from the April 2019 World Economic Outlook, masks significant differences between advanced and emerging Europe. Growth in advanced Europe has been revised down, while growth in emerging Europe has been revised up. Amid high uncertainty, risks remain to the downside, with a no-deal Brexit the key risk in the near term. An intensification of trade tensions and related uncertainty could also dampen investment. More broadly, the weakness in trade and manufacturing could spread to other sectors—notably services—faster and to a greater extent than currently envisaged. Other risks stem from abrupt declines in risk appetite, financial vulnerabilities, the re-emergence of deflationary pressures in advanced economies, and geopolitics.

Productivity Puzzles Across Europe

Productivity Puzzles Across Europe
Author: Philippe Askenazy
Publisher: Oxford University Press
Total Pages: 338
Release: 2016
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 0198786166

A volume on labour productivity in Europe in the aftermath of the 2008 financial crisis. It provides rationales for recent productivity trends in France, the UK, Germany, and Spain, and analyses policy responses to the crisis and how these have affected post-recession outcomes.

Wage and Inflation Dynamics in Denmark

Wage and Inflation Dynamics in Denmark
Author: Raju Huidrom
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 16
Release: 2023-07-19
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN:

Nominal wage growth in Denmark has so far been modest and outpaced by high inflation, putting real wage growth in negative territory. Amid still-tight labor markets, this has raised concerns about wage pressures going forward and the eventual impact on inflation. The analysis suggests that wage formation in Denmark has historically been partly backward-looking, and economic slack also has played a role. Given these, high inflation realized thus far and the tightness in the labor market implies that wage pressures are expected to remain elevated in the near term. Some of these wage pressures, in turn, are expected to be passed on to core inflation, sustaining high inflation. Thus, determined policies to fight inflation are important.