Three Essays

Three Essays
Author: Yan Lu
Publisher:
Total Pages: 115
Release: 2020
Genre: Electronic dissertations
ISBN:

The first essay extends the pioneering cointegration test of Johansen (1991) to allow for structural breaks in a cointegration system. Instead of using usual dummy variables, we utilize a Fourier function to control for an unknown number of multiple breaks in the cointegration system. When we use dummy variables, we need to determine the number of breaks and their locations a priori in each of the equations in the system. However, this challenging task is converted to a simpler task of determining the number of a few cumulative frequencies when we use a Fourier function. The number of parameters to estimate is reduced significantly, which can lead to a good performance of the tests. We also recommend using a fixed value of cumulative frequencies. We provide the limiting distribution of the Johansen-Fourier tests and the corresponding critical values. Monte Carlo simulations show that the new tests display good size and power properties. An empirical application to the Kilian (2009) dataset shows the result of cointegration, while the conventional Johansen cointegration tests indicate no cointegration. The second essay follows the extensive studies on the similarity and synchronization of member states' economic fundamentals and conditions triggered by the formation of the Economic and monetary union in Europe. Similar institutional and economic conditions are considered essential characteristics, implicit targets, and preferred prerequisite qualifications for the Eurozone members, as the optimal currency area theory indicates. This paper analyzes synchronization in five major macroeconomic variables in the European Union using the dynamic factor model. We do not find significant evidence of synchronization in the Eurozone or EU countries. The degree of synchronization in the Eurozone countries is not greater than that in other countries. Also, we find no significant evidence to show that the EU or Eurozone membership has increased synchronization or similarity within the group over time. Instead, we find that synchronization effects are time-dependent; they are more significant during the financial crisis period. The third and final essay analyzes the co-movements of US housing prices using the state level and metropolitan statistical areas (MSA) data. The objective of the study is to examine the significance and time-varying nature of the co-movements from macroeconomic aspects and determine major factors that drive the movements of the housing prices. Dynamic factor models with time-varying loadings and stochastic volatility (DFM-TV-SV) are employed to estimate the national, regional, and state factors. The results show that the national factor is dominant in explaining the movement of housing prices. On average, the national factor accounts for 79 percent of the variation of housing prices, while its significance is the highest during the housing boom and bust periods in many regions and states. Overall, the significance of each factor varies significantly over time and in different regions. The synchronization effects are also time varying and heterogeneous over different regions and states.

Unit Roots, Cointegration, and Structural Change

Unit Roots, Cointegration, and Structural Change
Author: G. S. Maddala
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Total Pages: 528
Release: 1998
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 9780521587822

A comprehensive review of unit roots, cointegration and structural change from a best-selling author.

Essays in Honor of M. Hashem Pesaran

Essays in Honor of M. Hashem Pesaran
Author: Alexander Chudik
Publisher: Emerald Group Publishing
Total Pages: 316
Release: 2022-01-18
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 180262063X

The collection of chapters in Volume 43 Part A of Advances in Econometrics serves as a tribute to one of the most innovative, influential, and productive econometricians of his generation, Professor M. Hashem Pesaran.

Essays on Balance of Payments Constrained Growth

Essays on Balance of Payments Constrained Growth
Author: John McCombie
Publisher: Routledge
Total Pages: 351
Release: 2004-03-26
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1134340311

This impressive collection explores the relationship between a country's balance of payments and their rate of economic growth.