The Value of Analyst Recommendations

The Value of Analyst Recommendations
Author: Wanyi Yang
Publisher:
Total Pages: 386
Release: 2018
Genre: Investment advisors
ISBN:

This thesis comprises three separate empirical studies which examine different aspects of analyst stock recommendations in international stock markets. The first study focuses on the information content of analyst recommendations at the country level. It shows that analyst recommendations aggregated at the country level predict international stock market returns. A trading strategy based on country-level recommendations yields an abnormal return of around 1% per month. Additional tests indicate that analyst recommendations aggregated at the country level provide useful information to predict future aggregate cash flows and associated market returns across different countries. The second study shifts the focus towards the standard deviation of analyst recommendations. In particular, it takes a closer look at Miller's theory (1977) and tests whether the relationship between differences of opinion and stock returns exists at the country level. This study shows that country level disagreement measured from single stock recommendation dispersion is negatively related to future realized market returns. This study also provides evidence that growth stocks show a higher level of overpricing compared to value stocks. The aggregate difference of opinion remains significantly negatively related to market returns after allowing time-varying risk exposure. However, countries with more binding short-sales constraints do not show lower future market returns. Finally, the third study takes a broader perspective and investigates whether the short-term value impact of analyst recommendations varies across countries, and whether these differences are related to countries' institutional environments. The results show that stock price reactions are systematically different across countries. In particular, stock prices react significantly stronger to recommendation announcements in countries with higher accounting standards, more effective security enforcement, better earnings quality, common law origins, and better protection of private property. However, the enforcement of insider trading laws does not significantly affect the value of recommendations at the country level. The results are robust after extending the event window to (-15, +15) and excluding confounding earnings announcements. Moreover, the institutional environment affects the value of recommendation revisions across countries as well.

Value of Analyst Recommendations

Value of Analyst Recommendations
Author: Narasimhan Jegadeesh
Publisher:
Total Pages: 41
Release: 2009
Genre:
ISBN:

This paper examines analyst recommendations in the G7 countries and evaluates the value of these recommendations over the 1993 to 2002 period. We find that the proportion of sell and strong sell recommendations in all of the countries are less than the proportion of the buy and strong buy recommendations. The frequency of sell recommendations is the lowest in the U.S. We also find that stock prices react significantly to recommendation revisions on the day of recommendation and on the following day in all of these countries except Italy. We find the largest price reactions in the U.S., followed by Japan. We evaluate trading strategies that buy upgraded stocks and sell downgraded stocks. Here again, the trading strategies have the highest profits in the U.S., followed by Japan.

The Changing Impact of Analyst Recommendation Revisions Over Time

The Changing Impact of Analyst Recommendation Revisions Over Time
Author: Nadine Weber
Publisher: LAP Lambert Academic Publishing
Total Pages: 72
Release: 2011-03
Genre:
ISBN: 9783844306927

The Efficient Markets Hypothesis beholds that all public information is incorporated in the stock price. Yet economists question to what extent this holds, and these discussions are, among other factors, fuelled by the existence of analyst recommendations. If all information is already incorporated in the stock price, what value can analysts add? A comprehensive study on the German market finds that, indeed, a tangible effect is measured after analysts voice their recommendations; this effect is especially powerful when an analyst changes his recommendation to his previous one. Moreover, this book is the first to research how analyst recommendations have changed over time, whether analysts have better forecasting power during bull or bear markets, and, most importantly, how can an investor profit from this knowledge? An advanced calendar-time strategy has been developed wherein an investor can earn significant abnormal returns by following a momentum strategy in the short-term while simultaneously abiding to a contrarian strategy in the long-term.

The Value of Client Access to Analyst Recommendations

The Value of Client Access to Analyst Recommendations
Author: T. Clifton Green
Publisher:
Total Pages: 42
Release: 2004
Genre:
ISBN:

Early access to stock recommendations provides brokerage firm clients with incremental investment value. After controlling for transaction costs, purchasing (selling) following upgrades (downgrades) results in average two-day returns of 1.02% (1.50%). Short-term profit opportunities persist for two hours following the pre-market release of new recommendations. A calendar-based strategy produces annualized returns of over 30% and the results are robust within sub-periods. Recommending firms' market makers shift their quotes accordingly, providing indirect evidence that clients make use of their short-term informational advantage.

The Little Book of Valuation

The Little Book of Valuation
Author: Aswath Damodaran
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
Total Pages: 269
Release: 2011-03-29
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1118064143

An accessible, and intuitive, guide to stock valuation Valuation is at the heart of any investment decision, whether that decision is to buy, sell, or hold. In The Little Book of Valuation, expert Aswath Damodaran explains the techniques in language that any investors can understand, so you can make better investment decisions when reviewing stock research reports and engaging in independent efforts to value and pick stocks. Page by page, Damodaran distills the fundamentals of valuation, without glossing over or ignoring key concepts, and develops models that you can easily understand and use. Along the way, he covers various valuation approaches from intrinsic or discounted cash flow valuation and multiples or relative valuation to some elements of real option valuation. Includes case studies and examples that will help build your valuation skills Written by Aswath Damodaran, one of today's most respected valuation experts Includes an accompanying iPhone application (iVal) that makes the lessons of the book immediately useable Written with the individual investor in mind, this reliable guide will not only help you value a company quickly, but will also help you make sense of valuations done by others or found in comprehensive equity research reports.

Should You Bet on Your Broker's Advice? A Study of Analyst Recommendations in India

Should You Bet on Your Broker's Advice? A Study of Analyst Recommendations in India
Author: Rajesh Chakrabarti
Publisher:
Total Pages: 22
Release: 2010
Genre:
ISBN:

Equity analysts serve an important function by bringing information about companies to the stock market. Equity analysis and reporting by brokerage firms has increased considerably in recent years in India. We examine over 2000 analyst recommendations to study the predictive value and market impact of stock analyst forecasts in India. We find that analysts tend to be optimistic in their predictions, recommending buys considerably more often than sells. Their recommendations do have investment value at least in the near term. Clear buy recommendations appear to be the most valuable. The recommendations also seem to have some impact on stock price.

Financial Analysts' Forecasts and Stock Recommendations

Financial Analysts' Forecasts and Stock Recommendations
Author: Sundaresh Ramnath
Publisher: Now Publishers Inc
Total Pages: 125
Release: 2008
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1601981627

Financial Analysts' Forecasts and Stock Recommendations reviews research related to the role of financial analysts in the allocation of resources in capital markets. The authors provide an organized look at the literature, with particular attention to important questions that remain open for further research. They focus research related to analysts' decision processes and the usefulness of their forecasts and stock recommendations. Some of the major surveys were published in the early 1990's and since then no less than 250 papers related to financial analysts have appeared in the nine major research journals that we used to launch our review of the literature. The research has evolved from descriptions of the statistical properties of analysts' forecasts to investigations of the incentives and decision processes that give rise to those properties. However, in spite of this broader focus, much of analysts' decision processes and the market's mechanism of drawing a useful consensus from the combination of individual analysts' decisions remain hidden in a black box. What do we know about the relevant valuation metrics and the mechanism by which analysts and investors translate forecasts into present equity values? What do we know about the heuristics relied upon by analysts and the market and the appropriateness of their use? Financial Analysts' Forecasts and Stock Recommendations examines these and other questions and concludes by highlighting area for future research.

Are Stars' Opinions Worth More? The Relation Between Analyst Reputation and Recommendation Values

Are Stars' Opinions Worth More? The Relation Between Analyst Reputation and Recommendation Values
Author: Lily H. Fang
Publisher:
Total Pages: 51
Release: 2010
Genre:
ISBN:

Using 1994-2009 data, we examine the relation between analysts' star status and their recommendation values. For investors with private, advance access to analyst recommendations (e.g., institutions), trading on All-American (AA) analysts' buy and sell recommendations yields significantly better risk-adjusted returns than trading on non-AAs' recommendations. For investors without such access (e.g., individuals), only top-rank AAs make significantly more profitable buy recommendations than others. AAs outperform non-AAs both before and after they are elected, and the performance differential does not reverse. Reg-FD, Rule 2711, and the Global Settlement did not significantly erode the performance differential between AAs and non-AAs. Furthermore, election to top-AA ranks predicts performance in buy recommendations even among analysts with high ex-ante election probabilities. Collectively, these results suggest that skill differences among analysts exist and AA election reflects institutional investors' ability to evaluate and benefit from elected analysts' superior skills. Public investors' opportunity to profit from the stars' opinions exists, but is limited due to their timing disadvantage.