The Option Value of Vacant Land

The Option Value of Vacant Land
Author: Joseph T. L. Ooi
Publisher:
Total Pages: 19
Release: 2006
Genre:
ISBN:

Option theory offers a useful way of modeling land value under uncertainty. While this approach underlies much theoretical analysis, the unanswered question is, to what extent does the market value of land reflect this option value? This paper exploits a unique natural experiment to obtain the first direct estimates of the option value of land based on observed transactions. Comparing land sold under constraints that strip away real options to land sold in the same market without such restrictions, we find that approximately 45% of the market value of developable land represents the value of these embedded real options.

The Option Value of Vacant Land and the Optimal Timing of City Extensions

The Option Value of Vacant Land and the Optimal Timing of City Extensions
Author: Rutger-Jan Lange
Publisher:
Total Pages: 0
Release: 2018
Genre: Cities and towns
ISBN:

"Classic real options theory rests on two debatable assumptions: projects require a fixed investment and generate cash flows that follow a random walk. Relaxing both assumptions leads to radically different conclusions regarding the optimal timing of investment. We model investment using a Stone-Geary production function (Leontief and Cobb-Douglas are special cases) and growth as a mean-reverting Brownian motion. The solution method for this option valuation problem is non-trivial because the state space is two dimensional (level of the cash flow and its growth). For Leontief, the optimal policy is intuitive; the moment of investment involves a trade-off between the level of the cash ow and its growth. For Cobb-Douglas, in contrast, the optimal moment of investment depends only on the growth. More surprisingly, investment should be delayed when growth is high. This conclusion persists in the general Stone-Geary case. Applied to urban real estate, this suggests that up to 20% of cities should delay new construction because of high growth. The option value of vacant land may represent 60% of the value of new construction. High prices of vacant land may thus result from rational investor behavior rather than regulatory inefficiency. Our analysis should be widely applicable, for example to investment in high-growth companies."--Abstract.

The Option Value of Vacant Land and the Optimal Timing of City Extensions

The Option Value of Vacant Land and the Optimal Timing of City Extensions
Author: Rutger-Jan Lange
Publisher:
Total Pages: 59
Release: 2018
Genre: Cities and towns
ISBN:

Classic real options theory rests on two debatable assumptions: projects require a fixed investment and generate cash flows that follow a random walk. Relaxing both assumptions leads to radically different conclusions regarding the optimal timing of investment. We model investment using a Stone-Geary production function (Leontief and Cobb-Douglas are special cases) and growth as a mean-reverting Brownian motion. The solution method for this option valuation problem is non-trivial because the state space is two dimensional (level of the cash flow and its growth). For Leontief, the optimal policy is intuitive; the moment of investment involves a trade-off between the level of the cash ow and its growth. For Cobb-Douglas, in contrast, the optimal moment of investment depends only on the growth. More surprisingly, investment should be delayed when growth is high. This conclusion persists in the general Stone-Geary case. Applied to urban real estate, this suggests that up to 20% of cities should delay new construction because of high growth. The option value of vacant land may represent 60% of the value of new construction. High prices of vacant land may thus result from rational investor behavior rather than regulatory inefficiency. Our analysis should be widely applicable, for example to investment in high-growth companies.

The Derivatives Sourcebook

The Derivatives Sourcebook
Author: Terence Lim
Publisher: Now Publishers Inc
Total Pages: 225
Release: 2006
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1933019212

The Derivatives Sourcebook is a citation study and classification system that organizes the many strands of the derivatives literature and assigns each citation to a category. Over 1800 research articles are collected and organized into a simple web-based searchable database. We have also included the 1997 Nobel lectures of Robert Merton and Myron Scholes as a backdrop to this literature.

Efficiency Tests of Options on Treasury Bond Futures Contracts at the Chicago Board of Trade

Efficiency Tests of Options on Treasury Bond Futures Contracts at the Chicago Board of Trade
Author: Edward C. Blomeyer
Publisher:
Total Pages:
Release: 1999
Genre:
ISBN:

This study is an ex-ante and ex-post test of market efficiency for the options on Treasury bond futures contracts traded on the Chicago Board of Trade. All options and future contracts price changes were examined from market inception, in October 1982, through the middle of June 1983 for violations of put-call parity and long box spread arbitrage opportunities. Out of 81,338 option price changes, 891 changes provided ex-post arbitrage opportunities with average ex-ante profits of $54 per trade for put-call parity strategies and $117 per trade for long box spread strategies. Ex-ante profit opportunities were largest in the early months of trading and had almost disappeared by June 1983.

The Green Book

The Green Book
Author: Great Britain. Treasury
Publisher: Stationery Office
Total Pages: 114
Release: 2003
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 9780115601071

This new edition incorporates revised guidance from H.M Treasury which is designed to promote efficient policy development and resource allocation across government through the use of a thorough, long-term and analytically robust approach to the appraisal and evaluation of public service projects before significant funds are committed. It is the first edition to have been aided by a consultation process in order to ensure the guidance is clearer and more closely tailored to suit the needs of users.

The New Investment Theory of Real Options and its Implication for Telecommunications Economics

The New Investment Theory of Real Options and its Implication for Telecommunications Economics
Author: James J. Alleman
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Total Pages: 274
Release: 2007-08-19
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 0585333149

Randall B, Lowe Piper & Marbury, L.L.R The issue of costing and pricing in the telecommunications industry has been hotly debated for the last twenty years. Indeed, we are still wrestling today over the cost of the local exchange for access by interexchange and competitive local ex change carriers, as well as for universal service funding. The U.S. telecommunications world was a simple one before the emergence of competition, comprising only AT&T and independent local exchange carriers. Costs were allocated between intrastate and interstate jurisdictions and then again, between intrastate local and toll. The Bell System then divided those costs among itself (using a process referred to as the division of revenues) and independents (using a process called settlements). Tolls subsidized local calls to keep the politi cians happy, and the firm, as a whole, covered its costs and made a fair return. State regulators, however, lacked the wherewithal to audit this process. Their con cerns centered generally on whether local rates, irrespective of costs, were at a po litically acceptable level. Although federal regulators were better able to determine the reasonableness of the process and the resulting costs, they adopted an approach of "continuous surveillance" where, like the state regulator, the appearance of rea sonableness was what mattered. With the advent of competition, this historical costing predicate had to change. The Bell System, as well as the independents, were suddenly held accountable.