The Use and Abuse of "real-time" Data in Economic Forecasting

The Use and Abuse of
Author: Evan F. Koenig
Publisher:
Total Pages: 44
Release: 2000
Genre: Economic forecasting
ISBN:

We distinguish between three different ways of using real-time data to estimate forecasting equations and argue that the most frequently used approach should generally be avoided. The point is illustrated with a model that uses monthly observations of industrial production, employment, and retail sales to predict real GDP growth. When the model is estimated using our preferred method, its out-of-sample forecasting performance is clearly superior to that obtained using conventional estimation, and compares favorably with that of the Blue-Chip consensus.

Practical Time Series Forecasting with R

Practical Time Series Forecasting with R
Author: Galit Shmueli
Publisher: Axelrod Schnall Publishers
Total Pages: 232
Release: 2016-07-19
Genre: Mathematics
ISBN: 0997847913

Practical Time Series Forecasting with R: A Hands-On Guide, Second Edition provides an applied approach to time-series forecasting. Forecasting is an essential component of predictive analytics. The book introduces popular forecasting methods and approaches used in a variety of business applications. The book offers clear explanations, practical examples, and end-of-chapter exercises and cases. Readers will learn to use forecasting methods using the free open-source R software to develop effective forecasting solutions that extract business value from time-series data. Featuring improved organization and new material, the Second Edition also includes: - Popular forecasting methods including smoothing algorithms, regression models, and neural networks - A practical approach to evaluating the performance of forecasting solutions - A business-analytics exposition focused on linking time-series forecasting to business goals - Guided cases for integrating the acquired knowledge using real data* End-of-chapter problems to facilitate active learning - A companion site with data sets, R code, learning resources, and instructor materials (solutions to exercises, case studies) - Globally-available textbook, available in both softcover and Kindle formats Practical Time Series Forecasting with R: A Hands-On Guide, Second Edition is the perfect textbook for upper-undergraduate, graduate and MBA-level courses as well as professional programs in data science and business analytics. The book is also designed for practitioners in the fields of operations research, supply chain management, marketing, economics, finance and management. For more information, visit forecastingbook.com

Prediction and prevention of prescription drug abuse

Prediction and prevention of prescription drug abuse
Author: Julie A. Marusich
Publisher: RTI Press
Total Pages: 16
Release: 2013-07-22
Genre: Medical
ISBN:

In 2011, the prevalence of prescription drug abuse exceeded that of any other illicit drug except marijuana. Consequently, efforts to curtail abuse of new medications should begin during the drug development process, where abuse liability can be identified and addressed before a candidate medication has widespread use. The first step in this process is scheduling with the Drug Enforcement Agency so that legal access is appropriately restricted, dependent upon levels of abuse risk and medical benefit. To facilitate scheduling, the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) has published guidance for industry that describes assessment of abuse liability. The purpose of this paper is to review methods that may be used to satisfy the FDA's regulatory requirements for animal behavioral and dependence pharmacology. Methods include psychomotor activity, self-administration (an animal model of the rewarding effects of a drug), drug discrimination (an animal model of the subjective effects of a drug), and evaluation of tolerance and dependence. Data from tests with known drugs of abuse illustrate typical results. While the use of preclinical data to predict abuse liability is an imperfect process, these methods have substantial predictive validity. The ultimate goal is to increase consumer safety through appropriate scheduling of new medications.

Precipitation: Advances in Measurement, Estimation and Prediction

Precipitation: Advances in Measurement, Estimation and Prediction
Author: Silas C. Michaelides
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Total Pages: 552
Release: 2008-02-27
Genre: Science
ISBN: 3540776559

This volume is the outcome of contributions from 51 scientists who were invited to expose their latest findings on precipitation research and in particular, on the measurement, estimation and prediction of precipitation. The reader is presented with a blend of theoretical, mathematical and technical treatise of precipitation science but also with authentic applications, ranging from local field experiments and country-scale campaigns to multinational space endeavors.