The Uncertain Course
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| Author | : Joseph Y. Halpern |
| Publisher | : MIT Press |
| Total Pages | : 505 |
| Release | : 2017-04-07 |
| Genre | : Computers |
| ISBN | : 0262533804 |
Formal ways of representing uncertainty and various logics for reasoning about it; updated with new material on weighted probability measures, complexity-theoretic considerations, and other topics. In order to deal with uncertainty intelligently, we need to be able to represent it and reason about it. In this book, Joseph Halpern examines formal ways of representing uncertainty and considers various logics for reasoning about it. While the ideas presented are formalized in terms of definitions and theorems, the emphasis is on the philosophy of representing and reasoning about uncertainty. Halpern surveys possible formal systems for representing uncertainty, including probability measures, possibility measures, and plausibility measures; considers the updating of beliefs based on changing information and the relation to Bayes' theorem; and discusses qualitative, quantitative, and plausibilistic Bayesian networks. This second edition has been updated to reflect Halpern's recent research. New material includes a consideration of weighted probability measures and how they can be used in decision making; analyses of the Doomsday argument and the Sleeping Beauty problem; modeling games with imperfect recall using the runs-and-systems approach; a discussion of complexity-theoretic considerations; the application of first-order conditional logic to security. Reasoning about Uncertainty is accessible and relevant to researchers and students in many fields, including computer science, artificial intelligence, economics (particularly game theory), mathematics, philosophy, and statistics.
| Author | : Andrew S. Erickson |
| Publisher | : Naval Institute Press |
| Total Pages | : 240 |
| Release | : 2017-02-15 |
| Genre | : History |
| ISBN | : 1682470822 |
China’s shipbuilding industry has grown more rapidly than any other in modern history. Commercial shipbuilding output jumped thirteen-fold from 2002–12, ensuring that Beijing has largely reached its goal of becoming the world’s leading shipbuilder. Yet progress is uneven, with military shipbuilding leading overall but with significant weakness in propulsion and electronics for military and civilian applications. It has never been more important to assess what ships China can supply its navy and other maritime forces with, today and in the future. Chinese Naval Shipbuilding answers three pressing questions: What are China’s prospects for success in key areas of naval shipbuilding? What are the likely results for China’s navy? What are the implications for the U.S. Navy? To address these critical issues, this volume assembles some of the world’s leading experts and linguistic analysts, often pairing them in research teams. These sailors, scholars, industry professionals, and government specialists have commanded ships at sea, led shipbuilding programs ashore, toured Chinese vessels and production facilities, invested in Chinese shipyards, and analyzed and presented important data to top-level decision-makers in times of crisis. In synthesizing their collective insights, this book fills a key gap in our understanding of China, its shipbuilding industry, its navy, and what it all means.
| Author | : Pema Chödrön |
| Publisher | : Shambhala Publications |
| Total Pages | : 255 |
| Release | : 2008 |
| Genre | : Body, Mind & Spirit |
| ISBN | : 1590305558 |
Tibetan Buddhist nun Pema Chodron offers short, stand-alone readings designed to help readers cultivate compassion and awareness amid the challenges of daily living.
| Author | : Rob Larsen |
| Publisher | : "O'Reilly Media, Inc." |
| Total Pages | : 313 |
| Release | : 2014-12-10 |
| Genre | : Computers |
| ISBN | : 1491945869 |
What’s the best way to develop for a Web gone wild? That’s easy. Simply scrap the rules you’ve relied on all these years and embrace uncertainty as a core tenet of design. In this practical book, veteran developer Rob Larsen outlines the principles out what he calls The Uncertain Web, and shows you techniques necessary to successfully make the transition. By combining web standards, progressive enhancement, an iterative approach to design and development, and a desire to question the status quo, your team can create sites and applications that will perform well in a wide range of present and future devices. This guide points the way. Topics include: Navigating thousands of browser/device/OS combinations Focusing on optimal, not absolute solutions Feature detection, Modernizr, and polyfills RWD, mobile first, and progressive enhancement UIs that work with multiple user input modes Image optimization, SVG, and server-side options The horribly complex world of web video The Web we want to see in the future
| Author | : Susan Jeffers |
| Publisher | : Macmillan + ORM |
| Total Pages | : 261 |
| Release | : 2007-04-01 |
| Genre | : Self-Help |
| ISBN | : 1429975865 |
Author of Feel The Fear And Do It Anyway From the multi-million bestselling author of Feel the Fear and Do It Anyway comes a powerful and healing book designed to offer a safety net in a world of never-ending change. It may be one of the most comforting and life-affirming books you will ever read. With her invaluable insights and exercises, Susan Jeffers gives you the tools you need to deal with all the uncertainty in your life with a sense of peace and possibility. You will learn: - Forty-two exercises to help make your life an exciting adventure instead of a continuous worry - How to lighten up and put problems into a life-affirming perspective - The amazing power of the word "maybe" - And much more. You will discover that there is a wondrous, joyous, and abundant life that can exist in the presence of uncertainty. The question is, "What do you need to do to reach this wonderful state?" And the answers abound in Embracing Uncertainty..
| Author | : Jay W. Roberts |
| Publisher | : Routledge |
| Total Pages | : 161 |
| Release | : 2021-11-22 |
| Genre | : Education |
| ISBN | : 1000459187 |
Risky Teaching examines the role of risk and uncertainty in teaching and learning in higher education. Discussing the current landscape of higher education and the challenges and opportunities we face, this book synthesizes a range of evidence-based and high-impact practices both in and out of the classroom, offering practical strategies and thought-provoking ideas on educational innovation for students and faculty. Covering topics such as taking risks inside the classroom, innovative teaching methods outside the classroom, rethinking assessment, and sustaining creativity as we grow in our careers, this practical resource is for faculty and instructors to work within and through uncertainty. The book also explores the inward challenges and opportunities associated with risky teaching and how institutional leaders can encourage productive risk-taking throughout the organization. This important text is for faculty and instructors in higher education who want to help their students thrive in a complex, unscripted, and disruptive world.
| Author | : |
| Publisher | : |
| Total Pages | : 458 |
| Release | : 1925 |
| Genre | : |
| ISBN | : |
| Author | : Frank H. Knight |
| Publisher | : Cosimo, Inc. |
| Total Pages | : 401 |
| Release | : 2006-11-01 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 1602060053 |
A timeless classic of economic theory that remains fascinating and pertinent today, this is Frank Knight's famous explanation of why perfect competition cannot eliminate profits, the important differences between "risk" and "uncertainty," and the vital role of the entrepreneur in profitmaking. Based on Knight's PhD dissertation, this 1921 work, balancing theory with fact to come to stunning insights, is a distinct pleasure to read. FRANK H. KNIGHT (1885-1972) is considered by some the greatest American scholar of economics of the 20th century. An economics professor at the University of Chicago from 1927 until 1955, he was one of the founders of the Chicago school of economics, which influenced Milton Friedman and George Stigler.
| Author | : Sheryl Paul |
| Publisher | : Hachette UK |
| Total Pages | : 218 |
| Release | : 2019-06-27 |
| Genre | : Health & Fitness |
| ISBN | : 1783253452 |
'We have to shift from a mindset of shame, which sees anxiety as evidence of brokenness, to a mindset of curiosity, which recognizes that anxiety is evidence of our sensitive heart, our imaginative mind and our soul's desire to grow towards wholeness.' Three million people are thought to suffer from anxiety in the UK, and it is an issue that affects a growing number of people across all ages. For anyone troubled by obsessive thoughts, insomnia and other manifestations of anxiety, counsellor Sheryl Paul offers shelter in the storm. In The Wisdom of Anxiety, Paul reveals that anxiety, like any emotion, is a signal - a clear bodily invitation to heal and renew your trust in your choices, self-image and core values. Weaving together practical exercises with personal stories, Paul offers medication-free approaches for accessing the gifts in different kinds of anxiety, and especially the anxiety summoned by life's transitions, for example a career change, becoming parents or becoming carers for loved ones. Chapters include recognising the symptoms of anxiety, its origins, the myth of 'normal', the expectation of happiness and a timeline of healing that includes exercises for the body and mind. There are also chapters on parenting in an age of anxiety and the vulnerability of connection and relationships.
| Author | : Jeffrey A. Friedman |
| Publisher | : Oxford University Press |
| Total Pages | : 241 |
| Release | : 2019-04-01 |
| Genre | : Political Science |
| ISBN | : 019093803X |
Uncertainty surrounds every major decision in international politics. Yet there is almost always room for reasonable people to disagree about what that uncertainty entails. No one can reliably predict the outbreak of armed conflict, forecast economic recessions, anticipate terrorist attacks, or estimate the countless other risks that shape foreign policy choices. Many scholars and practitioners therefore believe that it is better to keep foreign policy debates focused on the facts - that it is, at best, a waste of time to debate uncertain judgments that will often prove to be wrong. In War and Chance, Jeffrey A. Friedman shows how foreign policy officials often try to avoid the challenge of assessing uncertainty, and argues that this behavior undermines high-stakes decision making. Drawing on an innovative combination of historical and experimental evidence, he explains how foreign policy analysts can assess uncertainty in a manner that is theoretically coherent, empirically meaningful, politically defensible, practically useful, and sometimes logically necessary for making sound choices. Each of these claims contradicts widespread skepticism about the value of probabilistic reasoning in international politics, and shows how placing greater emphasis on assessing uncertainty can improve nearly any foreign policy debate. A clear-eyed examination of the logic, psychology, and politics of assessing uncertainty, War and Chance provides scholars and practitioners with new foundations for understanding one of the most controversial elements of foreign policy discourse.
