Stock Market Crashes: Predictable And Unpredictable And What To Do About Them

Stock Market Crashes: Predictable And Unpredictable And What To Do About Them
Author: William T Ziemba
Publisher: World Scientific
Total Pages: 309
Release: 2017-08-30
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 9813223863

'Overall, the book provides an interesting and useful synthesis of the authors’ research on the predictions of stock market crashes. The book can be recommended to anyone interested in the Bond Stock Earnings Yield Differential model, and similar methods to predict crashes.'Quantitative FinanceThis book presents studies of stock market crashes big and small that occur from bubbles bursting or other reasons. By a bubble we mean that prices are rising just because they are rising and that prices exceed fundamental values. A bubble can be a large rise in prices followed by a steep fall. The focus is on determining if a bubble actually exists, on models to predict stock market declines in bubble-like markets and exit strategies from these bubble-like markets. We list historical great bubbles of various markets over hundreds of years.We present four models that have been successful in predicting large stock market declines of ten percent plus that average about minus twenty-five percent. The bond stock earnings yield difference model was based on the 1987 US crash where the S&P 500 futures fell 29% in one day. The model is based on earnings yields relative to interest rates. When interest rates become too high relative to earnings, there almost always is a decline in four to twelve months. The initial out of sample test was on the Japanese stock market from 1948-88. There all twelve danger signals produced correct decline signals. But there were eight other ten percent plus declines that occurred for other reasons. Then the model called the 1990 Japan huge -56% decline. We show various later applications of the model to US stock declines such as in 2000 and 2007 and to the Chinese stock market. We also compare the model with high price earnings decline predictions over a sixty year period in the US. We show that over twenty year periods that have high returns they all start with low price earnings ratios and end with high ratios. High price earnings models have predictive value and the BSEYD models predict even better. Other large decline prediction models are call option prices exceeding put prices, Warren Buffett's value of the stock market to the value of the economy adjusted using BSEYD ideas and the value of Sotheby's stock. Investors expect more declines than actually occur. We present research on the positive effects of FOMC meetings and small cap dominance with Democratic Presidents. Marty Zweig was a wall street legend while he was alive. We discuss his methods for stock market predictability using momentum and FED actions. These helped him become the leading analyst and we show that his ideas still give useful predictions in 2016-2017. We study small declines in the five to fifteen percent range that are either not expected or are expected but when is not clear. For these we present methods to deal with these situations.The last four January-February 2016, Brexit, Trump and French elections are analzyed using simple volatility-S&P 500 graphs. Another very important issue is can you exit bubble-like markets at favorable prices. We use a stopping rule model that gives very good exit results. This is applied successfully to Apple computer stock in 2012, the Nasdaq 100 in 2000, the Japanese stock and golf course membership prices, the US stock market in 1929 and 1987 and other markets. We also show how to incorporate predictive models into stochastic investment models.

About Stock Markets Predictability

About Stock Markets Predictability
Author: Hicham Abdelouahab Benjelloun
Publisher:
Total Pages:
Release: 2009
Genre:
ISBN:

I provide a fresh and potentially controversial perspective. I argue that stock markets have a certain outcome but an unpredictable pattern. Collective awareness determines what the future performance of a security or market will be but the circumstances leading to this outcome are untraceable as there are infinite possibilities. Previous research is unanimous in believing that stock prices in efficient markets hover around their fundamental value which is represented but the present value of all future cash flows. I argue instead that stock prices are simply a reflection of previous thoughts. These thoughts come from the certain investors who mentally guide the market. In other words stock prices have nothing to do with the future but are completely related to the past. I also argue that most stocks are perfectly correlated to each other and that it is possible to obtain high gains consistently. Finally I argue that by simply redefining risk the market may not be as risky as it appears sometimes.

Global Stock Markets

Global Stock Markets
Author: Wolfgang Drobetz
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Total Pages: 346
Release: 2013-06-29
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 3663085295

Wolfgang Drobetz provides empirical evidence on the time variation of expected stock returns over the stages of the business cycle.

Stock Return Predictability

Stock Return Predictability
Author: Arthur Ritter
Publisher: GRIN Verlag
Total Pages: 21
Release: 2015-05-27
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 3656968926

Research Paper (postgraduate) from the year 2015 in the subject Business economics - Banking, Stock Exchanges, Insurance, Accounting, grade: 17 (1,3), University of St Andrews (School of Management), course: Investment and Portfolio Management, language: English, abstract: Empirical evidence of stock return predictability obtained by financial ratios or macroeconomic factors has received substantial attention and remains a controversial topic to date. This is no surprise given that the existence of return predictability is not only of interest to practitioners but also introduces severe implications for financial models of risk and return. Founded on the assumption of efficient capital markets, research on capital asset pricing models has instigated this emergence of stock return predictability factors. Analysing these factors categorically, this paper will provide a balanced discussion of advocates as well as sceptics of stock return predictability. This essay will commence by firstly outlining the fundamental assumptions of an efficient capital market and its implications for return predictability. Subsequently, a thorough focus will be placed on the most significant predictability factors, including fundamental financial ratios and macroeconomic indicators as well as the validity of sampling methods used to attain return forecasts. Lastly this essay will reflect on the findings while proposing areas of further research.

Predicting Stock Returns

Predicting Stock Returns
Author: David G McMillan
Publisher: Springer
Total Pages: 141
Release: 2017-11-30
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 3319690086

This book provides a comprehensive analysis of asset price movement. It examines different aspects of stock return predictability, the interaction between stock return and dividend growth predictability, the relationship between stocks and bonds, and the resulting implications for asset price movement. By contributing to our understanding of the factors that cause price movement, this book will be of benefit to researchers, practitioners and policy makers alike.

Stock Prices, Inflation and Stock Returns Predictability

Stock Prices, Inflation and Stock Returns Predictability
Author: Christophe Boucher
Publisher:
Total Pages: 50
Release: 2008
Genre:
ISBN:

This paper considers a new perspective on the relationship between stock prices and inflation, by estimating the common long-term trend in real stock prices, as reflected in the earning-price ratio, and both expected and realized inflation. We study the role of the transitory deviations from the common trend in the earning-price ratio and realized inflation for predicting stock market fluctuations. In particular, we find that these deviations exhibit substantial insample and out-of-sample forecasting abilities for both real stock returns and excess returns. Moreover, we find that this variable provides information about future stock returns at short and intermediate horizons that is not captured by other popular forecasting variables.