The Kondratieff Waves
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| Author | : Nikolai D. Kondratieff |
| Publisher | : Ravenio Books |
| Total Pages | : 32 |
| Release | : |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : |
THE idea that the dynamics of economic life in the capitalistic social order is not of a simple and linear but rather of a complex and cyclical character is nowadays generally recognized. Science, however, has fallen far short of clarifying the nature and the types of these cyclical, wave-like movements. When in economics we speak of cycles, we generally mean seven to eleven year business cycles. But these seven to eleven year movements are obviously not the only type of economic cycles. The dynamics of economic life is in reality more complicated. In addition to the above-mentioned cycles, which we shall agree to call “intermediate,” the existence of still shorter waves of about three and one-half years’ length has recently been shown to be probable. But that is not all. There is, indeed, reason to assume the existence of long waves of an average length of about 50 years in the capitalistic economy, a fact which still further complicates the problem of economic dynamics.
| Author | : Tessaleno C. Devezas |
| Publisher | : IOS Press |
| Total Pages | : 352 |
| Release | : 2006 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 1586035886 |
Considerable progress has been made in understanding the underlying mechanisms driving the long-wave behaviour of the world socioeconomic development. A controversial mechanism discussed is the close relationship between K-waves and the outbreak of majors wars.
| Author | : Николай Дмитриевич Кондратьев |
| Publisher | : [New York] : Richardson & Snyder |
| Total Pages | : 160 |
| Release | : 1984 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : |
| Author | : Leo Nefiodow |
| Publisher | : Createspace Independent Publishing Platform |
| Total Pages | : 252 |
| Release | : 2017-04-19 |
| Genre | : |
| ISBN | : 9781545485149 |
What are the major new growth markets of the future? Why do groundbreaking innovations - like the computer, the automobile or the steam engine in the past - increasingly fail to materialize? What are the current growth barriers that hinder the further development of economy and society? The reader will find answers to these questions in this book. The Theory of Long Waves serves as a scientific foundation. In short, it states that economic and social development is significantly determined by periodic cycles that last between 40 and 60 years. In honor of their discoverer Nikolai Kondratieff, these long waves are called Kondratieff cycles. Since the late 18th century, economists have empirically proven five Kondratieff cycles. The long waves have a particularly strategic role: those, who identify the respective current Kondratieff cycle early on are able to focus on the future, to take the lead in economic and social development and benefit the most from its momentum - just like the leading command of information technology during the last, the fifth Kondratieff cycle made full employment and increasing wealth possible for these countries. The sixth Kondratieff cycle has begun with the turn of this century. As the analyses in this book show, health care will be the driving force of this new Kondratieff cycle. However, health is not just seen in a physical, but also in a holistic sense, encompassing the physical, psychological, mental, psycho-mental, social, ecological and spiritual aspects. Why are health expenditures that were previously considered a mere cost factor going to assume the role of a growth locomotive in the future? We need to recall the findings of modern growth theory here: the most important source for economic growth in developed countries is productivity advancements. The analyses in this book show that a new understanding of health is indispensable to improve productivity on all levels of the economy and society. Thanks to this new understanding, health will become a strategic weapon for the next decades. This book is tailored to a general audience, includes 76 graphics and 13 tables and is aimed at stakeholders in economy and society, experts and managers and all those, who are interested in the future. Aside from a profound analysis, the book also describes measures to develop the sixth Kondratieff.
| Author | : Nathan Mager |
| Publisher | : Praeger |
| Total Pages | : 264 |
| Release | : 1987 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : |
A study of the Kondatieff Wave Theory in light of current evidence and experience. The book is aimed at anyone interested in general economic history, economic theory and business cycles, and Kondratieff cultists.
| Author | : J.J. Van Duijn |
| Publisher | : Routledge |
| Total Pages | : 254 |
| Release | : 2013-11-05 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 1136599878 |
Of all fluctuations in economic activity, the long wave or Kondratieff cycle is easily the most puzzling and least understood one. Does it really exist, and if so, is it only a cycle in prices or a cycle in economic activity at large? What causes it, and has it been confined to Europe or does it affect the world economy as a whole? These questions, which seemed of little relevance in the prosperous years of the postwar growth era, have gained new importance since 1973. With the downturn of the long wave, interest in it has enjoyed a revival, as it did in the 1930s. A great number of publications on the long wave have appeared since 1973, many of which have added to our insight of what causes the recurrent alternations of growth acceleration and retardation. This book is the first in the English language in which all important long wave theories, old as well as recent, are brought together. It focuses on the long wave as an international phenomenon, affecting all industrialised countries. It contains new theory as well as empirical evidence and in the final section suggests a number of policy recommendations to generate innovation. This book offers an interpretation of long-term economic development different from those commonly found in the literature. It will be of interest to students and scholars of the economics of growth and change, as well as to economic historians and policy-makers. This book was first published in 1983.
| Author | : Alfred Klienknecht |
| Publisher | : Springer |
| Total Pages | : 355 |
| Release | : 1993-02-12 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 1349224502 |
This book presents new methods for the analysis of time series and the identification of long waves. In Part One it is shown that new time series analyses confirm the existence of Kondratieff long waves in economic growth for the 19th and 20th centuries. Part Two presents evidence on long waves in aggregate profit rates for selected major industrialized countries. Part Three covers theoretical discussions and attempts at modeling social, economic and technological factors in long waves.
| Author | : Leonid E. Grinin |
| Publisher | : ООО "Издательство "Учитель" |
| Total Pages | : 224 |
| Release | : |
| Genre | : |
| ISBN | : 5705750811 |
Though the researchers of the theory of long and medium-term cycles are certainly worried about the economic situation, they understand that the cyclicity still remains an inevitable attribute of economic development. And Juglar's aphorism that crisis is a consequence of the preceded prosperity is still true. In this third issue of the Yearbook ‘Kondratieff Waves’ with the subtitle ‘Cycles, Crises, and Forecasts’, we present a number of insight contributions on nature, egularities, and interconnections among cycles of different duration. Some economic cycles may result in a severe economic crisis. The current one shows once again the importance of the study of cyclical dynamics and its peculiarities. Between the 1980s and 1990s the Keynesian receipts were replaced by neoliberal and monetarist ones which seemed to be miraculous as well. The depleted growth was marked with the largest global crisis of 2008 which also showed that within globalization when regulation in the international arena is impossible yet, there recur the signs of Juglar cycles of the 19th and first half of the 20th centuries with their uncontrollable upwards and sharp declines evolving into collapses and panic. This is supported by the fact that for eight years the world has been at the depressive phase. This edition will be useful for economists, social scientists, as well as for a wide range of those interested in the problems of the past, present, and future of global economy and globalization. This research has been supported by the Russian Foundation for the Humanities (Project No 16-02-14053 г).
| Author | : Christopher Freeman |
| Publisher | : Edward Elgar Publishing |
| Total Pages | : 0 |
| Release | : 1996 |
| Genre | : Lange bølger |
| ISBN | : 9781852789541 |
A collection of 33 articles dating from 1913 to 1993 on the theory of long economic waves, or Kondiratieff cycles. They include key papers on the connection between innovation and long- wave theory, the statistical debate about the theory, its use as a forecasting tool since the renaissance of long waves in the 1970s and 1980s, and the first English translation from the Dutch of J. van Gelderen's (alias J. Fedder) classic Springtide: Reflections on Industrial Development and Price Movements, which began the whole business in 1913. Among the other authors are Jan Tinbergen, Andrew Tylecote, Nathan Rosenberg, Ernest Mandel, and Helga Nowotny. No subject index. Annotation copyright by Book News, Inc., Portland, OR
| Author | : Markku Wilenius |
| Publisher | : World Scientific |
| Total Pages | : 268 |
| Release | : 2017-03-24 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 1786342901 |
Patterns of the Future explains the current world using the theory of long-term development waves (Kondratiev waves). Markku Wilenius, Professor of Futures Studies, argues that we are now entering the sixth wave: the age of intelligent, integrated technologies, helping to restore the balance between humans, technology and nature by radically improved material and energy efficiency and a wiser use of human potential.The unfolding sixth wave will challenge our current values, institutions and business models. Using a systems-based approach, Patterns of the Future analyses how corporations and the public sector can navigate in the sixth wave. Case studies look at specific examples of this, using high-profile companies to demonstrate both the best- (and worst-) case scenarios of innovation for change.This book spans concepts from multiple disciplines in the social sciences, making it relevant not only to undergraduate and graduate students in futures studies, environmental studies, economics, and business, but also national policymakers, think tanks, corporate operators and indeed for any one seriously interested in the future.
