Home Country Bias in Sovereign Ratings?

Home Country Bias in Sovereign Ratings?
Author: Hasan Doluca
Publisher:
Total Pages: 23
Release: 2014
Genre:
ISBN:

This paper analyzes if the so called home country bias exists in sovereign ratings: Home country bias could be due to the fact that a rating agency applies higher ratings to a country with which the country where the rating agency is located has stronger relations. For the analysis of a potential home country preference we use a novel approach to the existing financial literature on rating bias: in particular, we use variables proxying the interconnection between the country in which the rating agency is headquartered and the rated country. The results of the analysis of home country bias are ambiguous. The interconnection of the US with the rated country proxied by the trade channel does not imply any home country bias; nevertheless, when a different proxy - based on the interconnection between US financial institutions and the respective countries - is used, at first glance the results indicate a bias with respect to the ratings from Moody's only. However, this finding could not be verified by the robustness check. Thus, the ambiguous results show the need for further research on this issue.

Empirical Evidence of Bias in Sovereign Ratings

Empirical Evidence of Bias in Sovereign Ratings
Author: Hasan Doluca
Publisher:
Total Pages: 59
Release: 2014
Genre:
ISBN:

This paper analyzes if and what kind of sovereign rating bias exists. We analyze three possible biases. Firstly, rating agencies may have the incentive to rate countries where they earn more money better compared to countries where they earn less (profit maximizing bias). Secondly, different information asymmetry levels between the rated sovereigns and the rating agencies could lead to a bias (information asymmetry bias). A third bias could be due to the fact that a rating agency applies higher ratings to a country with which the country where the rating agency is located has stronger relations (home country bias). For the analysis of a potential home country preference we use a novel approach to the existing financial literature on rating bias: in particular, we use variables proxying the interconnection between the country in which the rating agency is headquartered and the rated country. This paper finds no empirical evidence of profit maximizing bias on the level of sovereign ratings but a significant bias in sovereign ratings caused by information asymmetry. The results of the analysis of home country bias are ambiguous. The interconnection of the US with the rated country proxied by the trade channel does not imply any home country bias; nevertheless, when a different proxy -- based on the interconnection between US-financial institutions and the respective countries -- is used, at first glance the results indicate a bias with respect to the ratings from Moody's only. However, this finding turns out not to be robust.

Managing the Sovereign-Bank Nexus

Managing the Sovereign-Bank Nexus
Author: Mr.Giovanni Dell'Ariccia
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 54
Release: 2018-09-07
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1484359623

This paper reviews empirical and theoretical work on the links between banks and their governments (the bank-sovereign nexus). How significant is this nexus? What do we know about it? To what extent is it a source of concern? What is the role of policy intervention? The paper concludes with a review of recent policy proposals.

The Equity Home Bias Puzzle

The Equity Home Bias Puzzle
Author: Ian Cooper
Publisher:
Total Pages: 133
Release: 2013
Genre: International finance
ISBN: 9781601987631

Home bias - the empirical phenomenon that investors assign anomalously high weights to their own domestic assets - has puzzled academics for decades: financial theory predicts that an internationally well diversified portfolio of stocks and short-term bonds can reduce risk significantly without affecting expected return. Although the globalization of international equity markets has increased international investments, equity portfolios remain severely home biased today, and no single explanation seems to solve the puzzle completely. In this paper, we first provide a thorough description of the equity home bias phenomenon by defining, discussing, and applying the competing measures and presenting some estimates of the costs of under-diversification. Second, we evaluate the explanations for the equity home bias proposed in the literature such as information asymmetries, behavioral aspects, barriers to foreign investment, and governance issues, and conclude that each explanation on its own falls short, suggesting that the equity home bias probably reflects a combination of factors. Lastly, we review the implications of international under-diversification for portfolio formation and the cost of capital of companies.

Sovereign Debt and Rating Agency Bias

Sovereign Debt and Rating Agency Bias
Author: D. Tennant
Publisher: Springer
Total Pages: 136
Release: 2017-08-15
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1137391502

Sovereign Debt and Credit Rating Bias rejects the notion that credit rating agencies' rigorous and transparent determination of ratings leaves no room for bias, and debunks the myth that the value CRAs place on their reputational capital precludes prolonged biases. To determine the extent of CRAs' biased actions, Tennant and Tracey apply a rigorous methodology to a well-established economic model of the determinants of sovereign debt quality. They present strong evidence of bias against poor countries and demonstrate how biased rating changes could disadvantage such countries and the companies operating therein as they seek access to international capital markets. They discuss plausible explanations for the bias and suggest remedial measures that would help ensure balance in credit rating changes. This book fills an important gap by rigorously examining a long-standing but often ignored concern about the rating practices of credit rating agencies.

Fiscal Deficits, Public Debt, and Sovereign Bond Yields

Fiscal Deficits, Public Debt, and Sovereign Bond Yields
Author: Mr.Manmohan S. Kumar
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 30
Release: 2010-08-01
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1455202185

The recent sharp increase in fiscal deficits and government debt in many countries raises questions regarding their impact on long-term sovereign bond yields. While economic theory suggests that this impact is likely to be adverse, empirical results have been less clear cut, have generally ignored nonlinear effects of deficits and debt through some other key determinants of yields, and have been mostly confined to advanced economies. This paper reexamines the impact of fiscal deficits and public debt on long-term interest rates during 1980 - 2008, taking into account a wide range of country-specific factors, for a panel of 31 advanced and emerging market economies. It finds that higher deficits and public debt lead to a significant increase in long-term interest rates, with the precise magnitude dependent on initial fiscal, institutional and other structural conditions, as well as spillovers from global financial markets. Taking into account these factors suggests that large fiscal deficits and public debts are likely to put substantial upward pressures on sovereign bond yields in many advanced economies over the medium term.

Home Bias in Bank Sovereign Bond Purchases and the Bank-Sovereign Nexus

Home Bias in Bank Sovereign Bond Purchases and the Bank-Sovereign Nexus
Author: Desislava Andreeva
Publisher:
Total Pages: 44
Release: 2017
Genre:
ISBN:

We study whether a pre-existing link between bank and sovereign credit risk biased euro area banks' sovereign debt portfolio choices during 2011Q4 and 2012Q1 - a period of exceptional increases in their domestic sovereign bond holdings. We find that banks whose creditworthiness is linked to that of the respective sovereign tended to purchase higher amounts of domestic sovereign bonds relative to their main assets if the CDS spreads on domestic sovereign bonds were higher. Moreover, for elevated sovereign CDS levels, banks whose creditworthiness is ex ante more strongly positively correlated with that of the local sovereign exhibit larger purchases of domestic government bonds. These findings are consistent with 'risk shifting' behaviour, where by investing in domestic government bonds banks earn the full, high risk premium while the risk is largely borne by their creditors as it materialises in states of the world where the banks are likely to be insolvent anyway. As a result, domestic sovereign debt offers ex ante higher returns to bank shareholders than alternative ways to build up precautionary liquidity buffers or indeed to execute carry trades, such as to invest in non-domestic government bonds.

Banks, Government Bonds, and Default

Banks, Government Bonds, and Default
Author: Nicola Gennaioli
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 53
Release: 2014-07-08
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1498391990

We analyze holdings of public bonds by over 20,000 banks in 191 countries, and the role of these bonds in 20 sovereign defaults over 1998-2012. Banks hold many public bonds (on average 9% of their assets), particularly in less financially-developed countries. During sovereign defaults, banks increase their exposure to public bonds, especially large banks and when expected bond returns are high. At the bank level, bondholdings correlate negatively with subsequent lending during sovereign defaults. This correlation is mostly due to bonds acquired in pre-default years. These findings shed light on alternative theories of the sovereign default-banking crisis nexus.

Coordinated Portfolio investment Survey

Coordinated Portfolio investment Survey
Author: International Monetary Fund
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 180
Release: 1997-01-01
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1455216569

This paper presents a coordinated portfolio investment survey guide provided to assist national compilers in the conduct of the Coordinated Portfolio Investment Survey, conducted under the auspices of the IMF with reference to the year-end 1997. The guide covers a variety of conceptual issues that a country must address when conducting a survey. It also covers the practical issues associated with preparing for a national survey. These include setting a timetable, taking account of the legal and confidentiality issues raised, developing a mailing list, and maintaining quality control checks.