Information Spillovers and Market Integration in International Finance

Information Spillovers and Market Integration in International Finance
Author: Suk-Joong Kim
Publisher: World Scientific Publishing Company
Total Pages: 626
Release: 2017
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 9789813223578

The contents in this volume are based on the program Sets and Computations that was held at the Institute for Mathematical Sciences, National University of Singapore from 30 March until 30 April 2015. This special collection reports on important and recen

Foreign Exchange Intervention: A Dataset of Public Data and Proxies

Foreign Exchange Intervention: A Dataset of Public Data and Proxies
Author: Gustavo Adler
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 67
Release: 2021-02-19
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1513566679

Foreign exchange intervention (FXI) is a highly debated topic. Yet, comprehensive and comparable data on FXI is hard to find. This paper provides a new dataset of FXI covering a large number of countries over the period 2000-20 at monthly and quarterly frequencies. It includes publicly available data for about 40 countries and carefully constructed proxies for 122 countries. Proxies are focused on both spot and derivative transactions that alter the central bank’s foreign currency position and account for a wide range of central bank operations, including vis-à-vis residents, the first proxy to do so to our knowledge. The paper discusses the merits of the new proxy relative to coarser measures traditionally used like the change in reserves, and potential definitional differences with published data. The paper also presents stylized facts using our newly constructed FXI proxies.

Foreign Exchange Intervention Rules for Central Banks: A Risk-based Framework

Foreign Exchange Intervention Rules for Central Banks: A Risk-based Framework
Author: Romain Lafarguette
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 33
Release: 2021-02-12
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1513569406

This paper presents a rule for foreign exchange interventions (FXI), designed to preserve financial stability in floating exchange rate arrangements. The FXI rule addresses a market failure: the absence of hedging solution for tail exchange rate risk in the market (i.e. high volatility). Market impairment or overshoot of exchange rate between two equilibria could generate high volatility and threaten financial stability due to unhedged exposure to exchange rate risk in the economy. The rule uses the concept of Value at Risk (VaR) to define FXI triggers. While it provides to the market a hedge against tail risk, the rule allows the exchange rate to smoothly adjust to new equilibria. In addition, the rule is budget neutral over the medium term, encourages a prudent risk management in the market, and is more resilient to speculative attacks than other rules, such as fixed-volatility rules. The empirical methodology is backtested on Banco Mexico’s FXIs data between 2008 and 2016.

The Cost of Foreign Exchange Intervention

The Cost of Foreign Exchange Intervention
Author: Gustavo Adler
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 37
Release: 2016-04-12
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 148433230X

The accumulation of large foreign asset positions by many central banks through sustained foreign exchange (FX) intervention has raised questions about its associated fiscal costs. This paper clarifies conceptual issues regarding how to measure these costs both from an ex-post and an ex-ante (relevant for decision making) perspective, and estimates both marginal and total costs for 73 countries over the period 2002-13. We find ex-ante marginal costs for the median emerging market economy (EME) in the inter-quartile range of 2-5.5 percent per year; while ex-ante total costs (of sustaining FX positions) in the range of 0.2-0.7 percent of GDP per year for light interveners and 0.3-1.2 percent of GDP per year for heavy interveners. These estimates indicate that fiscal costs of sustained FX intervention (via expanding central bank balance sheets) are not negligible.

Unveiling the Effects of Foreign Exchange Intervention

Unveiling the Effects of Foreign Exchange Intervention
Author: Gustavo Adler
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 42
Release: 2015-06-23
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1513534602

We study the effect of foreign exchange intervention on the exchange rate relying on an instrumental-variables panel approach. We find robust evidence that intervention affects the level of the exchange rate in an economically meaningful way. A purchase of foreign currency of 1 percentage point of GDP causes a depreciation of the nominal and real exchange rates in the ranges of [1.7-2.0] percent and [1.4-1.7] percent respectively. The effects are found to be quite persistent. The paper also explores possible asymmetric effects, and whether effectiveness depends on the depth of domestic financial markets.

Guidelines for Foreign Exchange Reserve Management

Guidelines for Foreign Exchange Reserve Management
Author: International Monetary Fund
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 34
Release: 2004-08-16
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 9781589062603

These guidelines are intended to assist countries in strengthening their policy frameworks for reserve management so that they can become more resilient to shocks that may originate from global financial markets or within the domestic financial system. The guidelines have been developed as part of a broader IMF work program to help strengthen international financial architecture, to promote policies and practices that contribute to stability and transparency in the financial sector, and to reduce external vulnerabilities of member countries.

Strained Relations

Strained Relations
Author: Michael D. Bordo
Publisher: University of Chicago Press
Total Pages: 453
Release: 2015-03-02
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 022605151X

During the twentieth century, foreign-exchange intervention was sometimes used in an attempt to solve the fundamental trilemma of international finance, which holds that countries cannot simultaneously pursue independent monetary policies, stabilize their exchange rates, and benefit from free cross-border financial flows. Drawing on a trove of previously confidential data, Strained Relations reveals the evolution of US policy regarding currency market intervention, and its interaction with monetary policy. The authors consider how foreign-exchange intervention was affected by changing economic and institutional circumstances—most notably the abandonment of the international gold standard—and how political and bureaucratic factors affected this aspect of public policy.