The Cost Of Coronavirus Uncertainty
Download The Cost Of Coronavirus Uncertainty full books in PDF, epub, and Kindle. Read online free The Cost Of Coronavirus Uncertainty ebook anywhere anytime directly on your device. Fast Download speed and no annoying ads. We cannot guarantee that every ebooks is available!
| Author | : William MacAskill |
| Publisher | : Oxford University Press |
| Total Pages | : 237 |
| Release | : 2020 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 0198722273 |
About the bookToby Ord try to fill this gap. They argue that there are distinctive norms that govern how one ought to make decisions and defend an information-sensitive account of how to make such decisions. They do so by developing an analogy between moral uncertainty and social choice, noting that different moral views provide different amounts of information regarding our reasons for action, and arguing that the correct account of decision-making under moral uncertainty must be sensitive to that. Moral Uncertainty also tackles the problem of how to make intertheoretic comparisons, and addresses the implications of their view for metaethics and practical ethics. Very often we are uncertain about what we ought, morally, to do. We do not know how to weigh the interests of animals against humans, how strong our duties are to improve the lives of distant strangers, or how to think about the ethics of bringing new people into existence. But we still need to act. So how should we make decisions in the face of such uncertainty? Though economists and philosophers have extensively studied the issue of decision-making in the face of uncertainty about matters of fact, the question of decision-making given fundamental moral uncertainty has been neglected. In Moral Uncertainty, philosophers William MacAskill, Krister Bykvist, and Toby Ord try to fill this gap. They argue that there are distinctive norms that govern how one ought to make decisions and defend an information-sensitive account of how to make such decisions. They do so by developing an analogy between moral uncertainty and social choice, noting that different moral views provide different amounts of information regarding our reasons for action, and arguing that the correct account of decision-making under moral uncertainty must be sensitive to that. Moral Uncertainty also tackles the problem of how to make intertheoretic comparisons, and addresses the implications of their view for metaethics and practical ethics.
| Author | : Chaudhuri, Ananish |
| Publisher | : Edward Elgar Publishing |
| Total Pages | : 256 |
| Release | : 2022-02-18 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 1802205675 |
Utilizing extensive research in economics, psychology, political science, neuroscience and evolutionary theory, Ananish Chaudhuri provides a critical perspective on the role of cognitive biases in decision-making during the Covid-19 pandemic. The extensive use of, and support for, stringent social distancing measures in particular is explored in depth.
| Author | : Cass R. Sunstein |
| Publisher | : NYU Press |
| Total Pages | : 175 |
| Release | : 2021-04-27 |
| Genre | : Social Science |
| ISBN | : 1479808482 |
Best-selling author Cass R. Sunstein examines how to avoid worst-case scenarios The world is increasingly confronted with new challenges related to climate change, globalization, disease, and technology. Governments are faced with having to decide how much risk is worth taking, how much destruction and death can be tolerated, and how much money should be invested in the hopes of avoiding catastrophe. Lacking full information, should decision-makers focus on avoiding the most catastrophic outcomes? When should extreme measures be taken to prevent as much destruction as possible? Averting Catastrophe explores how governments ought to make decisions in times of imminent disaster. Cass R. Sunstein argues that using the “maximin rule,” which calls for choosing the approach that eliminates the worst of the worst-case scenarios, may be necessary when public officials lack important information, and when the worst-case scenario is too disastrous to contemplate. He underscores this argument by emphasizing the reality of “Knightian uncertainty,” found in circumstances in which it is not possible to assign probabilities to various outcomes. Sunstein brings foundational issues in decision theory in close contact with real problems in regulation, law, and daily life, and considers other potential future risks. At once an approachable introduction to decision-theory and a provocative argument for how governments ought to handle risk, Averting Catastrophe offers a definitive path forward in a world rife with uncertainty.
| Author | : Kostas Kampourakis |
| Publisher | : Oxford University Press, USA |
| Total Pages | : 273 |
| Release | : 2020 |
| Genre | : Philosophy |
| ISBN | : 0190871660 |
Anti-evolutionists, climate denialists, and anti-vaxxers, among others, question some of the best-established scientific findings by referring to the uncertainties in these areas of research. Uncertainty: How It Makes Science Advance shows that uncertainty is an inherent feature of science that makes it advance by motivating further research.
| Author | : National Intelligence Council |
| Publisher | : Cosimo Reports |
| Total Pages | : 158 |
| Release | : 2021-03 |
| Genre | : |
| ISBN | : 9781646794973 |
"The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic marks the most significant, singular global disruption since World War II, with health, economic, political, and security implications that will ripple for years to come." -Global Trends 2040 (2021) Global Trends 2040-A More Contested World (2021), released by the US National Intelligence Council, is the latest report in its series of reports starting in 1997 about megatrends and the world's future. This report, strongly influenced by the COVID-19 pandemic, paints a bleak picture of the future and describes a contested, fragmented and turbulent world. It specifically discusses the four main trends that will shape tomorrow's world: - Demographics-by 2040, 1.4 billion people will be added mostly in Africa and South Asia. - Economics-increased government debt and concentrated economic power will escalate problems for the poor and middleclass. - Climate-a hotter world will increase water, food, and health insecurity. - Technology-the emergence of new technologies could both solve and cause problems for human life. Students of trends, policymakers, entrepreneurs, academics, journalists and anyone eager for a glimpse into the next decades, will find this report, with colored graphs, essential reading.
| Author | : Robert C. Feenstra |
| Publisher | : Macmillan |
| Total Pages | : 984 |
| Release | : 2011-03 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 1429241039 |
Combining classic international economics with straight-from-the- headlines immediacy, Feenstra and Taylor’s text seamlessly integrates the subject’s established core content with topic areas and ideas that have emerged from recent empirical studies. A MODERN APPROACH FOR THE 21ST CENTURY International economics texts traditionally place greater emphasis on theory and a strong focus on the advanced countries. Feenstra/Taylor links theory to empirical evidence throughout the book, and incorporates coverage of emerging markets and developing economies (India, China, SE Asia) to reflect the evolving realities of the global economy. The new edition has been extensively revised and updated, especially in light of the ongoing world financial crisis. NOTE: Feenstra/Taylor, International Economics, Second Edition, is available in four versions: International Economics, 2e: 1-4292-3118-1 International Trade, 2e: 1-4292-4104-7 International Macroeconomics, 2e: 1-4292-4103-9 Essentials of International Economics, 2e: 1-4292-7710-5
| Author | : Doug Shannon |
| Publisher | : |
| Total Pages | : 78 |
| Release | : 2020-05-14 |
| Genre | : Health & Fitness |
| ISBN | : 9780578693996 |
It's not the end of the world. But it's the end of certainty as we know it. There's so much we can't control about our health, our jobs, our social connections- of course we're anxious! But our dis-ease doesn't have to disable us. If we can build immunity to uncertainty, we can start getting some sleep, feeling confident and maybe even discover some joy in our lives again.In The Anxiety Virus, psychotherapist Jennifer Shannon starts at the physiological source of anxiety, our limbic system, which is responsible for the fight-or-flight alarms that make us anxious. She explains that this "monkey mind" needs to adapt to the new level of uncertainty in our lives, and lays out a clear plan to train it.Her three immunity-building strategies-one cognitive, one behavioral and one emotional- are designed to help us expand our tolerance for uncertainty, rather than continue to contract around what we cannot control. They are "essential" because, as Jennifer has discovered in her decades of working with anxiety disorders, we cannot transform ourselves unless we employ our thoughts, feelings and behavior in unison.Jennifer's delivers her message in clear, simple language, complemented with delightful illustrations and step-by-step exercises to practice with. Her mission: Get you through this crisis with skills you'll use the rest of your life. Her promise: When you immunize yourself to uncertainty, your anxiety lessons. The more your anxiety lessons, the more your higher qualities will flow-like flexibility, creativity, and resilience, the very qualities we all need in a crisis!
| Author | : Christa Teston |
| Publisher | : University of Chicago Press |
| Total Pages | : 254 |
| Release | : 2017-05-05 |
| Genre | : Medical |
| ISBN | : 022645083X |
Doctors, scientists, and patients have long grappled with the dubious nature of “certainty” in medical practice. To help navigate the chaos caused by ongoing bodily change we rely on scientific reductions and deductions. We take what we know now and make best guesses about what will be. But bodies in flux always outpace the human gaze. Particularly in cancer care, processes deep within our bodies are at work long before we even know where to look. In the face of constant biological and technological change, how do medical professionals ultimately make decisions about care? Bodies in Flux explores the inventive ways humans and nonhumans work together to manufacture medical evidence. Each chapter draws on rhetorical theory to investigate a specific scientific method for negotiating medical uncertainty in cancer care, including evidential visualization, assessment, synthesis, and computation. Case studies unveil how doctors rely on visuals when deliberating about a patient’s treatment options, how members of the FDA use inferential statistics to predict a drug’s effectiveness, how researchers synthesize hundreds of clinical trials into a single evidence-based recommendation, and how genetic testing companies compute and commoditize human health. Teston concludes by advocating for an ethic of care that pushes back against the fetishization of certainty—an ethic of care that honors human fragility and bodily flux.
| Author | : Robert K. Dixit |
| Publisher | : Princeton University Press |
| Total Pages | : 484 |
| Release | : 2012-07-14 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 1400830176 |
How should firms decide whether and when to invest in new capital equipment, additions to their workforce, or the development of new products? Why have traditional economic models of investment failed to explain the behavior of investment spending in the United States and other countries? In this book, Avinash Dixit and Robert Pindyck provide the first detailed exposition of a new theoretical approach to the capital investment decisions of firms, stressing the irreversibility of most investment decisions, and the ongoing uncertainty of the economic environment in which these decisions are made. In so doing, they answer important questions about investment decisions and the behavior of investment spending. This new approach to investment recognizes the option value of waiting for better (but never complete) information. It exploits an analogy with the theory of options in financial markets, which permits a much richer dynamic framework than was possible with the traditional theory of investment. The authors present the new theory in a clear and systematic way, and consolidate, synthesize, and extend the various strands of research that have come out of the theory. Their book shows the importance of the theory for understanding investment behavior of firms; develops the implications of this theory for industry dynamics and for government policy concerning investment; and shows how the theory can be applied to specific industries and to a wide variety of business problems.
| Author | : John Kay |
| Publisher | : W. W. Norton & Company |
| Total Pages | : 407 |
| Release | : 2020-03-17 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 1324004789 |
Much economic advice is bogus quantification, warn two leading experts in this essential book, now with a preface on COVID-19. Invented numbers offer a false sense of security; we need instead robust narratives that give us the confidence to manage uncertainty. “An elegant and careful guide to thinking about personal and social economics, especially in a time of uncertainty. The timing is impeccable." — Christine Kenneally, New York Times Book Review Some uncertainties are resolvable. The insurance industry’s actuarial tables and the gambler’s roulette wheel both yield to the tools of probability theory. Most situations in life, however, involve a deeper kind of uncertainty, a radical uncertainty for which historical data provide no useful guidance to future outcomes. Radical uncertainty concerns events whose determinants are insufficiently understood for probabilities to be known or forecasting possible. Before President Barack Obama made the fateful decision to send in the Navy Seals, his advisers offered him wildly divergent estimates of the odds that Osama bin Laden would be in the Abbottabad compound. In 2000, no one—not least Steve Jobs—knew what a smartphone was; how could anyone have predicted how many would be sold in 2020? And financial advisers who confidently provide the information required in the standard retirement planning package—what will interest rates, the cost of living, and your state of health be in 2050?—demonstrate only that their advice is worthless. The limits of certainty demonstrate the power of human judgment over artificial intelligence. In most critical decisions there can be no forecasts or probability distributions on which we might sensibly rely. Instead of inventing numbers to fill the gaps in our knowledge, we should adopt business, political, and personal strategies that will be robust to alternative futures and resilient to unpredictable events. Within the security of such a robust and resilient reference narrative, uncertainty can be embraced, because it is the source of creativity, excitement, and profit.
