Inflation Persistence in Brazil - A Cross Country Comparison

Inflation Persistence in Brazil - A Cross Country Comparison
Author: Mr.Shaun K. Roache
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 22
Release: 2014-04-04
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1475542011

Inflation persistence is sometimes defined as the tendency for price shocks to push the inflation rate away from its steady state—including an inflation target—for a prolonged period. Persistence is important because it affects the output costs of lowering inflation back to the target, often described as the “sacrifice ratio”. In this paper I use inflation expectations to provide a comparison of inflation persistence in Brazil with a sample of inflation targeting (IT) countries. This approach suggests that inflation persistence increased in Brazil through early 2013, in contrast to many of its IT peers, mainly due to “upward” persistence. The 2013 rate hiking cycle may have contributed to some recent decline in persistence.

Inflation Expectations

Inflation Expectations
Author: Peter J. N. Sinclair
Publisher: Routledge
Total Pages: 402
Release: 2009-12-16
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1135179778

Inflation is regarded by the many as a menace that damages business and can only make life worse for households. Keeping it low depends critically on ensuring that firms and workers expect it to be low. So expectations of inflation are a key influence on national economic welfare. This collection pulls together a galaxy of world experts (including Roy Batchelor, Richard Curtin and Staffan Linden) on inflation expectations to debate different aspects of the issues involved. The main focus of the volume is on likely inflation developments. A number of factors have led practitioners and academic observers of monetary policy to place increasing emphasis recently on inflation expectations. One is the spread of inflation targeting, invented in New Zealand over 15 years ago, but now encompassing many important economies including Brazil, Canada, Israel and Great Britain. Even more significantly, the European Central Bank, the Bank of Japan and the United States Federal Bank are the leading members of another group of monetary institutions all considering or implementing moves in the same direction. A second is the large reduction in actual inflation that has been observed in most countries over the past decade or so. These considerations underscore the critical – and largely underrecognized - importance of inflation expectations. They emphasize the importance of the issues, and the great need for a volume that offers a clear, systematic treatment of them. This book, under the steely editorship of Peter Sinclair, should prove very important for policy makers and monetary economists alike.

The Econometric Analysis of Seasonal Time Series

The Econometric Analysis of Seasonal Time Series
Author: Eric Ghysels
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Total Pages: 258
Release: 2001-06-18
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 9780521565882

Eric Ghysels and Denise R. Osborn provide a thorough and timely review of the recent developments in the econometric analysis of seasonal economic time series, summarizing a decade of theoretical advances in the area. The authors discuss the asymptotic distribution theory for linear nonstationary seasonal stochastic processes. They also cover the latest contributions to the theory and practice of seasonal adjustment, together with its implications for estimation and hypothesis testing. Moreover, a comprehensive analysis of periodic models is provided, including stationary and nonstationary cases. The book concludes with a discussion of some nonlinear seasonal and periodic models. The treatment is designed for an audience of researchers and advanced graduate students.

Inflation and Activity – Two Explorations and their Monetary Policy Implications

Inflation and Activity – Two Explorations and their Monetary Policy Implications
Author: Mr.Olivier J. Blanchard
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 29
Release: 2015-11-06
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1513555839

We explore two issues triggered by the crisis. First, in most advanced countries, output remains far below the pre-recession trend, suggesting hysteresis. Second, while inflation has decreased, it has decreased less than anticipated, suggesting a breakdown of the relation between inflation and activity. To examine the first, we look at 122 recessions over the past 50 years in 23 countries. We find that a high proportion of them have been followed by lower output or even lower growth. To examine the second, we estimate a Phillips curve relation over the past 50 years for 20 countries. We find that the effect of unemployment on inflation, for given expected inflation, decreased until the early 1990s, but has remained roughly stable since then. We draw implications of our findings for monetary policy.

Heterogeneity and Persistence in Returns to Wealth

Heterogeneity and Persistence in Returns to Wealth
Author: Andreas Fagereng
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 69
Release: 2018-07-27
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1484370066

We provide a systematic analysis of the properties of individual returns to wealth using twelve years of population data from Norway’s administrative tax records. We document a number of novel results. First, during our sample period individuals earn markedly different average returns on their financial assets (a standard deviation of 14%) and on their net worth (a standard deviation of 8%). Second, heterogeneity in returns does not arise merely from differences in the allocation of wealth between safe and risky assets: returns are heterogeneous even within asset classes. Third, returns are positively correlated with wealth: moving from the 10th to the 90th percentile of the financial wealth distribution increases the return by 3 percentage points - and by 17 percentage points when the same exercise is performed for the return to net worth. Fourth, wealth returns exhibit substantial persistence over time. We argue that while this persistence partly reflects stable differences in risk exposure and assets scale, it also reflects persistent heterogeneity in sophistication and financial information, as well as entrepreneurial talent. Finally, wealth returns are (mildly) correlated across generations. We discuss the implications of these findings for several strands of the wealth inequality debate.

Quantile Regression

Quantile Regression
Author: Roger Koenker
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Total Pages: 367
Release: 2005-05-05
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1139444719

Quantile regression is gradually emerging as a unified statistical methodology for estimating models of conditional quantile functions. By complementing the exclusive focus of classical least squares regression on the conditional mean, quantile regression offers a systematic strategy for examining how covariates influence the location, scale and shape of the entire response distribution. This monograph is the first comprehensive treatment of the subject, encompassing models that are linear and nonlinear, parametric and nonparametric. The author has devoted more than 25 years of research to this topic. The methods in the analysis are illustrated with a variety of applications from economics, biology, ecology and finance. The treatment will find its core audiences in econometrics, statistics, and applied mathematics in addition to the disciplines cited above.

The Term Structure of Growth-at-Risk

The Term Structure of Growth-at-Risk
Author: Tobias Adrian
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 40
Release: 2018-08-02
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1484372360

Using panel quantile regressions for 11 advanced and 10 emerging market economies, we show that the conditional distribution of GDP growth depends on financial conditions, with growth-at-risk (GaR)—defined as growth at the lower 5th percentile—more responsive than the median or upper percentiles. In addition, the term structure of GaR features an intertemporal tradeoff: GaR is higher in the short run; but lower in the medium run when initial financial conditions are loose relative to typical levels, and the tradeoff is amplified by a credit boom. This shift in the growth distribution generally is not incorporated when solving dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models with macrofinancial linkages, which suggests downside risks to GDP growth are systematically underestimated.

Time Series Models for Business and Economic Forecasting

Time Series Models for Business and Economic Forecasting
Author: Philip Hans Franses
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Total Pages: 421
Release: 2014-04-24
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1139952129

With a new author team contributing decades of practical experience, this fully updated and thoroughly classroom-tested second edition textbook prepares students and practitioners to create effective forecasting models and master the techniques of time series analysis. Taking a practical and example-driven approach, this textbook summarises the most critical decisions, techniques and steps involved in creating forecasting models for business and economics. Students are led through the process with an entirely new set of carefully developed theoretical and practical exercises. Chapters examine the key features of economic time series, univariate time series analysis, trends, seasonality, aberrant observations, conditional heteroskedasticity and ARCH models, non-linearity and multivariate time series, making this a complete practical guide. Downloadable datasets are available online.

What Happens During Recessions, Crunches and Busts?

What Happens During Recessions, Crunches and Busts?
Author: Mr.Ayhan Kose
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 77
Release: 2008-12-01
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1451871325

We provide a comprehensive empirical characterization of the linkages between key macroeconomic and financial variables around business and financial cycles for 21 OECD countries over the period 1960–2007. In particular, we analyze the implications of 122 recessions, 112 (28) credit contraction (crunch) episodes, 114 (28) episodes of house price declines (busts), 234 (58) episodes of equity price declines (busts) and their various overlaps in these countries over the sample period. Our results indicate that interactions between macroeconomic and financial variables can play major roles in determining the severity and duration of recessions. Specifically, we find evidence that recessions associated with credit crunches and house price busts tend to be deeper and longer than other recessions. JEL Classification Numbers: E32; E44; E51; F42