Term Structure Models Of Interest Rates With Jump Diffusion Information
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Linear-Quadratic Term Structure Models - Toward the Understanding of Jumps in Interest Rates
| Author | : George J. Jiang |
| Publisher | : |
| Total Pages | : 13 |
| Release | : 2012 |
| Genre | : |
| ISBN | : |
In this paper, we propose a unifying class of affine-quadratic term structure models (AQTSMs) in the general jump-diffusion framework. Extending existing term structure models, the AQTSMs incorporate random jumps of stochastic intensity in the short rate process. Using information from the Treasury futures market, we propose a GMM approach for the estimation of the risk-neutral process. A distinguishing feature of the approach is that the time series estimates of stochastic volatility and jump intensity are obtained, together with model parameter estimates. Our empirical results suggest that stochastic jump intensity significantly improves the model fit to the term structure dynamics. We identify a stochastic jump intensity process that is negatively correlated with interest rate changes. Overall, negative jumps tend to have a larger size than positive ones. Our empirical results also suggest that, at monthly frequency, while stochastic volatility has certain predictive power of inflation, jumps are neither triggered by nor predictive of changes in macroeconomic variables. At daily frequency, however, we document interesting patterns for jumps associated with informational shocks in the financial market.
Modeling the Term Structure of Interest Rates
| Author | : Rajna Gibson |
| Publisher | : Now Publishers Inc |
| Total Pages | : 171 |
| Release | : 2010 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 1601983727 |
Modeling the Term Structure of Interest Rates provides a comprehensive review of the continuous-time modeling techniques of the term structure applicable to value and hedge default-free bonds and other interest rate derivatives.
Jump-Diffusion Processes and the Bond Markets
| Author | : Sanjiv Ranjan Das |
| Publisher | : |
| Total Pages | : |
| Release | : 2009 |
| Genre | : |
| ISBN | : |
This paper develops models of the term structure when the short rate follows a jump-diffusion process. An empirical implementation demonstrates that jump-diffusions better explain interest rate behavior than pure diffusion models. The fit is shown to be improved by an augmented jump-diffusion time varying volatility model proposed here. The effect of skewness and kurtosis on the term structure of interest rates is analyzed. The economic implications of jump activity are explored with the analysis of changes in Federal Reserve target rates and their relationship to the term structure.
Dynamic Term Structure Modeling
| Author | : Sanjay K. Nawalkha |
| Publisher | : John Wiley & Sons |
| Total Pages | : 722 |
| Release | : 2007-05-23 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 0470140062 |
Praise for Dynamic Term Structure Modeling "This book offers the most comprehensive coverage of term-structure models I have seen so far, encompassing equilibrium and no-arbitrage models in a new framework, along with the major solution techniques using trees, PDE methods, Fourier methods, and approximations. It is an essential reference for academics and practitioners alike." --Sanjiv Ranjan Das Professor of Finance, Santa Clara University, California, coeditor, Journal of Derivatives "Bravo! This is an exhaustive analysis of the yield curve dynamics. It is clear, pedagogically impressive, well presented, and to the point." --Nassim Nicholas Taleb author, Dynamic Hedging and The Black Swan "Nawalkha, Beliaeva, and Soto have put together a comprehensive, up-to-date textbook on modern dynamic term structure modeling. It is both accessible and rigorous and should be of tremendous interest to anyone who wants to learn about state-of-the-art fixed income modeling. It provides many numerical examples that will be valuable to readers interested in the practical implementations of these models." --Pierre Collin-Dufresne Associate Professor of Finance, UC Berkeley "The book provides a comprehensive description of the continuous time interest rate models. It serves an important part of the trilogy, useful for financial engineers to grasp the theoretical underpinnings and the practical implementation." --Thomas S. Y. Ho, PHD President, Thomas Ho Company, Ltd, coauthor, The Oxford Guide to Financial Modeling
A Nonparametric View of the Role of Jumps to Interest Rates
| Author | : Michael S. Johannes |
| Publisher | : |
| Total Pages | : 55 |
| Release | : 2011 |
| Genre | : |
| ISBN | : |
This paper provides an empirical analysis of the role of jumps in continuous-time models of the short rate. A diagnostic is developed to relate the failure of single and certain multi-factor models to the presence of unaccounted for jump-type movements. I introduce a nonparametric jump-diffusion model and develop an estimation methodology, which is justified using Monte Carlo simulations. The results point toward a dominant role for jumps in determining the dynamics of the short rate relative to standard diffusion components. An approximate filtering algorithm estimates jump times and sizes, providing further insight into the role of jumps. Jumps appear to be a mechanism through which fundamental information regarding the state of the macroeconomy enters the term-structure. Last, I investigate the implications of jumps for the default free, zero coupon term structure of interest rates.
Affine-Quadratic Jump-Diffusion Term Structure Models
| Author | : George J. Jiang |
| Publisher | : |
| Total Pages | : 41 |
| Release | : 2013 |
| Genre | : |
| ISBN | : |
In this paper, we propose a unifying affine-quadratic jump-diffusion framework for the term structure dynamics. The model incorporates both stochastic volatility and random jumps in the short rate process. In particular, we extend the existing models by explicitly modeling the jump intensity as a stochastic process. Using information from the treasury futures market, a GMM estimation approach is proposed for the risk-neutral process. A distinguishing feature of the approach is that the latent state variables are obtained, together with the model parameter estimates. The estimated latent state variables, namely the stochastic volatility and stochastic jump intensity, allow us to investigate the premia of various risk factors as well as underlying economic variables driving the term structure dynamics. Our empirical results suggest that the stochastic jump intensity significantly improves the model fit to the term structure dynamics. We identify a jump intensity negatively correlated with interest rate changes, a higher probability of positive jump than negative jump, and an on average larger size of negative jump than positive jump. We document a significant time-varying risk premium that is positively correlated with volatility.
Building and Using Dynamic Interest Rate Models
| Author | : Ken O. Kortanek |
| Publisher | : John Wiley & Sons |
| Total Pages | : 248 |
| Release | : 2001-11-28 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : |
This book offers a new approach to interest rate and modeling term structure by using models based on optimization of dynamical systems, rather than the traditional stochastic differential equation models. The authors use dynamic models to estimate the term structure of interest rates and show the reader how to build their own numerical simulations. It includes software that will enable readers to simulate the various models covered in the book.
