Tax Reforms and Fiscal Shock Smoothing

Tax Reforms and Fiscal Shock Smoothing
Author: Mr.David Amaglobeli
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 29
Release: 2019-05-23
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1498315623

This paper examines the role of tax policy reforms in enhancing fiscal shock smoothing in a panel of 13 OECD economies during the period 1980-2017. The results suggest that tax reforms, in particular those that broaden the tax base, significantly enhance the ability of fiscal policy to mitigate the impact of growth shocks on disposable income. We find that the magnitude of shock smoothing increases from an average of 2 percent to 3-31⁄2 percent following the reform. The effects are considerably higher for tax base than tax rate changes, and also higher for indirect tax than direct tax changes. The effects are symmetric—that is, the increase in shock smoothing following a reform expanding the tax base (rate) is similar to the decline in shock smoothing after a reform narrowing the tax base (rate). Tax elasticity, collection efficiency, and the progressivity of the tax system are important channels through which tax reforms affect fiscal stabilization.

Tax Reforms and Fiscal Shock Smoothing

Tax Reforms and Fiscal Shock Smoothing
Author: Mr.David Amaglobeli
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 29
Release: 2019-05-23
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 149831709X

This paper examines the role of tax policy reforms in enhancing fiscal shock smoothing in a panel of 13 OECD economies during the period 1980-2017. The results suggest that tax reforms, in particular those that broaden the tax base, significantly enhance the ability of fiscal policy to mitigate the impact of growth shocks on disposable income. We find that the magnitude of shock smoothing increases from an average of 2 percent to 3-31⁄2 percent following the reform. The effects are considerably higher for tax base than tax rate changes, and also higher for indirect tax than direct tax changes. The effects are symmetric—that is, the increase in shock smoothing following a reform expanding the tax base (rate) is similar to the decline in shock smoothing after a reform narrowing the tax base (rate). Tax elasticity, collection efficiency, and the progressivity of the tax system are important channels through which tax reforms affect fiscal stabilization.

The Perils of Tax Smoothing: Sustainable Fiscal Policy with Random Shocks to Permanent Output

The Perils of Tax Smoothing: Sustainable Fiscal Policy with Random Shocks to Permanent Output
Author: Kevin Joseph Carey
Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND
Total Pages: 32
Release: 2005-11-01
Genre:
ISBN: 9781451862263

If permanent output is uncertain, tax smoothing can be perilous: both debt levels and tax rates are difficult to stabilize and may drift upwards. One practical remedy would be to target the debt. However, our simulations confirm that such a policy would require undesirably volatile fiscal adjustments and may inhibit countercyclical borrowing. An alternative would be to link the primary surplus not only to the debt ratio (like tax smoothing) but also to its volatility, thus preempting further adjustments while gradually reducing the debt.

Tax Smoothing in a Financially Repressed Economy

Tax Smoothing in a Financially Repressed Economy
Author: Paul Cashin
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 50
Release: 1998-08
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN:

Why do governments run fiscal deficits? One rationale for the existence of fiscal imbalances is to minimize the distortionary effects of levying nonlump-sum taxes (for a given present value of tax collections), by spreading the burden of these taxes over time. That is, if taxes are distorting decisions to work or consume, then the timing of taxes will matter. This concept of tax smoothing, first introduced by Barro (1979), is now well established in the literature on fiscal policy.2 Tax smoothing has the normative implication that budget imbalances can be optimal fiscal policy responses to anticipated future events. In particular, a government anticipating an increase in its own expenditure can minimize the distortionary effects of raising the finance for that expenditure if it brings forward some of the associated tax increase and runs a budget surplus (or a smaller deficit) in the current period. Similarly, a budget deficit (or a smaller surplus) is optimal if the government anticipates future falls in its expenditure.

Fiscal Policy and Long-Term Growth

Fiscal Policy and Long-Term Growth
Author: International Monetary Fund
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 257
Release: 2015-04-20
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1498344658

This paper explores how fiscal policy can affect medium- to long-term growth. It identifies the main channels through which fiscal policy can influence growth and distills practical lessons for policymakers. The particular mix of policy measures, however, will depend on country-specific conditions, capacities, and preferences. The paper draws on the Fund’s extensive technical assistance on fiscal reforms as well as several analytical studies, including a novel approach for country studies, a statistical analysis of growth accelerations following fiscal reforms, and simulations of an endogenous growth model.

Parameter Instability, Expectations, Exogenous Fiscal Shocks, and the Relationship Between Taxes and Government Spending

Parameter Instability, Expectations, Exogenous Fiscal Shocks, and the Relationship Between Taxes and Government Spending
Author: Edgar M. Luna
Publisher:
Total Pages: 133
Release: 2014
Genre:
ISBN:

This dissertation focuses on the US government spending and taxes relationship. Chapter 2 considers the empirical relationship of taxes and spending using Granger causality test robust to parameter instability. The results show that revenues cause expenditures and expenditures cause revenues, as the fiscal synchronization suggests, only after taking into account parameter instability, using Rossi's (2005) test. Chapter 3 considers impulse response functions to see whether decreases in newly and already legislated taxes decrease government spending, as the "starve the beast" hypothesis suggests. Results show that these two shocks affect government spending in different ways. News about future tax cuts decrease government spending before these cuts are implemented, supporting the "starve the beast" hypothesis. Likewise, newly legislated tax cuts create a fiscal illusion, leading voters to demand higher government spending. Finally, Chapter 4 examines the behavior of the average tax rates following the present value of government war spending changes. Using impulse response functions, the point estimates suggest that a spending increase of 1% of GDP increases the average tax rate 0.2% on average, supporting the tax smoothing idea.

The Role of Fiscal Transfers in Smoothing Regional Shocks

The Role of Fiscal Transfers in Smoothing Regional Shocks
Author: Mr.Tigran Poghosyan
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 34
Release: 2016-07-21
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1498379605

We assess the extent to which fiscal transfers smooth regional shocks in three large federations: the U.S., Canada, and Australia. We find that fiscal transfers offset 4-11 percent of idiosyncratic shocks (risk-sharing) and 13-24 percent of permanent shocks (redistribution). This fiscal insurance largely operates through automatic stabilizers embedded in a central budget primarily through federal taxes and transfers to individuals, rather than transfers from the central government to state budgets. These results have implications for the design of fiscal risk-sharing mechanisms in the euro area.

Fiscal Adjustment for Stability and Growth

Fiscal Adjustment for Stability and Growth
Author: Mr.James Daniel
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 80
Release: 2006-08-17
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 9781589065130

The pamphlet (which updates the 1995 Guidelines for Fiscal Adjustment) presents the IMF’s approach to fiscal adjustment, and focuses on the role that sound government finances play in promoting macroeconomic stability and growth. Structured around five practical questions—when to adjust, how to assess the fiscal position, what makes for successful adjustment, how to carry out adjustment, and which institutions can help—it covers topics such as tax policies, debt sustainability, fiscal responsibility laws, and transparency.

The Effectiveness of Fiscal Policy in Stimulating Economic Activity

The Effectiveness of Fiscal Policy in Stimulating Economic Activity
Author: Richard Hemming
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 62
Release: 2002-12
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN:

This paper reviews the theoretical and empirical literature on the effectiveness of fiscal policy. The focus is on the size of fiscal multipliers, and on the possibility that multipliers can turn negative (i.e., that fiscal contractions can be expansionary). The paper concludes that fiscal multipliers are overwhelmingly positive but small. However, there is some evidence of negative fiscal multipliers.

Fiscal Policy, Stabilization, and Growth

Fiscal Policy, Stabilization, and Growth
Author: Guillermo E. Perry
Publisher: World Bank Publications
Total Pages: 354
Release: 2007-10-19
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 0821370855

Fiscal policy in Latin America has been guided primarily by short-term liquidity targets whose observance was taken as the main exponent of fiscal prudence, with attention focused almost exclusively on the levels of public debt and the cash deficit. Very little attention was paid to the effects of fiscal policy on growth and on macroeconomic volatility over the cycle. Important issues such as the composition of public expenditures (and its effects on growth), the ability of fiscal policy to stabilize cyclical fluctuations, and the currency composition of public debt were largely neglected. As a result, fiscal policy has often amplified cyclical volatility and dampened growth. 'Fiscal Policy, Stabilization, and Growth' explores the conduct of fiscal policy in Latin America and its consequences for macroeconomic stability and long-term growth. In particular, the book highlights the procyclical and anti-investment biases embedded in the region's fiscal policies, explores their causes and macroeconomic consequences, and asesses their possible solutions.