Macroeconomic Consequences of Tariffs

Macroeconomic Consequences of Tariffs
Author: Davide Furceri
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 57
Release: 2019-01-15
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1484390067

We study the macroeconomic consequences of tariffs. We estimate impulse response functions from local projections using a panel of annual data that spans 151 countries over 1963-2014. We find that tariff increases lead, in the medium term, to economically and statistically significant declines in domestic output and productivity. Tariff increases also result in more unemployment, higher inequality, and real exchange rate appreciation, but only small effects on the trade balance. The effects on output and productivity tend to be magnified when tariffs rise during expansions, for advanced economies, and when tariffs go up, not down. Our results are robust to a large number of perturbations to our methodology, and we complement our analysis with industry-level data.

Clashing Over Commerce

Clashing Over Commerce
Author: Douglas A. Irwin
Publisher: University of Chicago Press
Total Pages: 873
Release: 2017-11-29
Genre: Political Science
ISBN: 022639901X

A Foreign Affairs Best Book of the Year: “Tells the history of American trade policy . . . [A] grand narrative [that] also debunks trade-policy myths.” —Economist Should the United States be open to commerce with other countries, or should it protect domestic industries from foreign competition? This question has been the source of bitter political conflict throughout American history. Such conflict was inevitable, James Madison argued in the Federalist Papers, because trade policy involves clashing economic interests. The struggle between the winners and losers from trade has always been fierce because dollars and jobs are at stake: depending on what policy is chosen, some industries, farmers, and workers will prosper, while others will suffer. Douglas A. Irwin’s Clashing over Commerce is the most authoritative and comprehensive history of US trade policy to date, offering a clear picture of the various economic and political forces that have shaped it. From the start, trade policy divided the nation—first when Thomas Jefferson declared an embargo on all foreign trade and then when South Carolina threatened to secede from the Union over excessive taxes on imports. The Civil War saw a shift toward protectionism, which then came under constant political attack. Then, controversy over the Smoot-Hawley tariff during the Great Depression led to a policy shift toward freer trade, involving trade agreements that eventually produced the World Trade Organization. Irwin makes sense of this turbulent history by showing how different economic interests tend to be grouped geographically, meaning that every proposed policy change found ready champions and opponents in Congress. Deeply researched and rich with insight and detail, Clashing over Commerce provides valuable and enduring insights into US trade policy past and present. “Combines scholarly analysis with a historian’s eye for trends and colorful details . . . readable and illuminating, for the trade expert and for all Americans wanting a deeper understanding of America’s evolving role in the global economy.” —National Review “Magisterial.” —Foreign Affairs

Tariffs and the Macroeconomy

Tariffs and the Macroeconomy
Author: International Monetary Fund
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 98
Release: 1989-09-08
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1451960263

This paper examines the macroeconomic impact of tariffs. Existing theoretical models do not provide clear-cut predictions concerning the co-movement between unilateral tariff changes and a set of macroeconomic variables consisting of the real exchange rate, the trade balance, and the level of output. Three different data sets are found to be consistent with the hypothesis that tariffs have no statistically significant impact on the trade balance, the real exchange rate, or the level of output.

The Macroeconomic Effects of Trade Tariffs

The Macroeconomic Effects of Trade Tariffs
Author: Jesper Lindé
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 54
Release: 2017-07-07
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1484306112

We study the robustness of the Lerner symmetry result in an open economy New Keynesian model with price rigidities. While the Lerner symmetry result of no real effects of a combined import tariff and export subsidy holds up approximately for a number of alternative assumptions, we obtain quantitatively important long-term deviations under complete international asset markets. Direct pass-through of tariffs and subsidies to prices and slow exchange rate adjustment can also generate significant short-term deviations from Lerner. Finally, we quantify the macroeconomic costs of a trade war and find that they can be substantial, with permanently lower income and trade volumes. However, a fully symmetric retaliation to a unilaterally imposed border adjustment tax can prevent any real or nominal effects.

Tariff Passthrough at the Border and at the Store: Evidence from US Trade Policy

Tariff Passthrough at the Border and at the Store: Evidence from US Trade Policy
Author: Alberto Cavallo
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 37
Release: 2019-11-01
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1513518380

We use micro data collected at the border and at retailers to characterize the effects brought by recent changes in US trade policy - particularly the tariffs placed on imports from China - on importers, consumers, and exporters. We start by documenting that the tariffs were almost fully passed through to total prices paid by importers, suggesting the tariffs' incidence has fallen largely on the United States. Since we estimate the response of prices to exchange rates to be far more muted, the recent depreciation of the Chinese renminbi is unlikely to alter this conclusion. Next, using product-level data from several large multi-national retailers, we demonstrate that the impact of the tariffs on retail prices is more mixed. Some affected product categories have seen sharp price increases, but the difference between affected and unaffected products is generally quite modest, suggesting that retail margins have fallen. These retailers' imports increased after the initial announcement of possible tariffs, but before their full implementation, so the intermediate passthrough of tariffs to their prices may not persist. Finally, in contrast to the case of foreign exporters facing US tariffs, we show that US exporters lowered their prices on goods subjected to foreign retaliatory tariffs compared to exports of non-targeted goods.

The Great Rebalancing

The Great Rebalancing
Author: Michael Pettis
Publisher: Princeton University Press
Total Pages: 257
Release: 2014-10-26
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1400852269

How trade imbalances spurred on the global financial crisis and why we aren't out of trouble yet China's economic growth is sputtering, the Euro is under threat, and the United States is combating serious trade disadvantages. Another Great Depression? Not quite. Noted economist and China expert Michael Pettis argues instead that we are undergoing a critical rebalancing of the world economies. Debunking popular misconceptions, Pettis shows that severe trade imbalances spurred on the recent financial crisis and were the result of unfortunate policies that distorted the savings and consumption patterns of certain nations. Pettis examines the reasons behind these destabilizing policies, and he predicts severe economic dislocations that will have long-lasting effects. Demonstrating how economic policies can carry negative repercussions the world over, The Great Rebalancing sheds urgent light on our globally linked economic future.

Trade Wars are Class Wars

Trade Wars are Class Wars
Author: Matthew C. Klein
Publisher: Yale University Press
Total Pages: 292
Release: 2020-01-01
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 0300244177

"This is a very important book."--Martin Wolf, Financial TimesA provocative look at how today's trade conflicts are caused by governments promoting the interests of elites at the expense of workers Longlisted for the 2020 Financial Times & McKinsey Business Book of the Year Award "Worth reading for [the authors'] insights into the history of trade and finance."--George Melloan, Wall Street Journal Trade disputes are usually understood as conflicts between countries with competing national interests, but as Matthew C. Klein and Michael Pettis show, they are often the unexpected result of domestic political choices to serve the interests of the rich at the expense of workers and ordinary retirees. Klein and Pettis trace the origins of today's trade wars to decisions made by politicians and business leaders in China, Europe, and the United States over the past thirty years. Across the world, the rich have prospered while workers can no longer afford to buy what they produce, have lost their jobs, or have been forced into higher levels of debt. In this thought-provoking challenge to mainstream views, the authors provide a cohesive narrative that shows how the class wars of rising inequality are a threat to the global economy and international peace--and what we can do about it.

The World Trade System

The World Trade System
Author: Jagdish N. Bhagwati
Publisher: MIT Press
Total Pages: 415
Release: 2016-12-16
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 0262035235

The world trade system : trends and challenges / Jagdish Bhagwati, Pravin Krishna and Arvind Panagariya -- Issues in trade policy -- Border tax equalization / Steve Charnovitz -- Trade, poverty and inequality / Devashish Mitra -- Dispute settlement : the influence of preferential trade agreements on litigation between trading partners / Petros Mavroidis and Andre Sapir -- Anti-dumping provisions within preferential trade agreements / Tom Prusa -- The wto trade facilitation agreement : milestone, mirage, or mistake? / Bernard Hoekman -- Agriculture : food security and trade liberalization / Stefan Tangermann -- Regional perspectives -- Trans Pacific Partnership : perspectives from China / Mary Lovely and Dimitar Gueorguiev -- Trans Atlantic Free trade : the view from Germany / Gabriel Felbermayr -- Administered protection in the eu : implications for TTIP / Jonas Kasteng

Straight Talk on Trade

Straight Talk on Trade
Author: Dani Rodrik
Publisher: Princeton University Press
Total Pages: 330
Release: 2019-08-27
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 0691196087

Deftly navigating the tensions among globalization, national sovereignty, and democracy, Straight Talk on Trade presents an indispensable commentary on today's world economy and its dilemmas, and offers a visionary framework at a critical time when it is most needed.

International Trade

International Trade
Author: Anne O. Krueger
Publisher:
Total Pages: 369
Release: 2020
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 0190900466

International trade and trade policy have become increasingly important and complex in recent years. In this comprehensive introduction to the key aspects of international trade policy, noted authority Anne O. Krueger explains what has happened and why these issues are so difficult. With evidence-based analysis and an even-handed approach, International Trade: What Everyone Needs to Know lays the foundation to understand what trade does and does not do. Focusing on the importance of trade in both goods and services, Krueger explores the effects of various trade policies step-by-step and demonstrates why economists generally support free trade. Krueger considers the historical experience, highlighting how technological changes and reduction of trade barriers helped transform the world economy. Tariffs, antidumping and countervailing duties, government procurement policies, preferential trading arrangements, trade with developing countries and emerging markets, and the World Trade Organization are examined. Krueger tackles the fundamental questions surrounding trade including: What are the benefits and costs? What are trade deficits and do they matter? Why do some people favor protectionism and barriers to trade? How does trade policy affect workers? Written in question-and-answer format, this non-technical introduction to the policies of international trade provides an indispensable guide to one of the most crucial elements of the global economy.