Unconventional Policies and Exchange Rate Dynamics

Unconventional Policies and Exchange Rate Dynamics
Author: Gustavo Adler
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 38
Release: 2017-11-13
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1484328779

We study exchange rate dynamics under cooperative and self-oriented policies in a two-country DSGE model with unconventional monetary and exchange rate policies. The cooperative solution features a large exchange rate adjustment that cushions the impact of negative shocks and a moderate use of unconventional policy instruments. Self-oriented policies (Nash equilibrium), however, entail limited exchange rate movements and an aggressive use of unconventional policies in both countries. Our results highlight the role of international policy cooperation in allowing the exchange rate to play the traditional role of shock absorber.

Exchange Rate Targets and Currency Bands

Exchange Rate Targets and Currency Bands
Author: Paul Krugman
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Total Pages: 274
Release: 1992-10-22
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 9780521435260

This volume examines the intersection between a new analytical approach and a real economic problem.

The Macroeconomic Theory of Exchange Rate Crises

The Macroeconomic Theory of Exchange Rate Crises
Author: Giovanni Piersanti
Publisher: Oxford University Press
Total Pages: 407
Release: 2012-04-26
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 0199653127

An overview of the causes and consequences of speculative attacks on domestic currency and international financial turmoil. It provides a comprehensive treatment of the existing theories of exchange rate crises and of financial market runs.

Foreign Exchange Intervention Rules for Central Banks: A Risk-based Framework

Foreign Exchange Intervention Rules for Central Banks: A Risk-based Framework
Author: Romain Lafarguette
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 33
Release: 2021-02-12
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1513569406

This paper presents a rule for foreign exchange interventions (FXI), designed to preserve financial stability in floating exchange rate arrangements. The FXI rule addresses a market failure: the absence of hedging solution for tail exchange rate risk in the market (i.e. high volatility). Market impairment or overshoot of exchange rate between two equilibria could generate high volatility and threaten financial stability due to unhedged exposure to exchange rate risk in the economy. The rule uses the concept of Value at Risk (VaR) to define FXI triggers. While it provides to the market a hedge against tail risk, the rule allows the exchange rate to smoothly adjust to new equilibria. In addition, the rule is budget neutral over the medium term, encourages a prudent risk management in the market, and is more resilient to speculative attacks than other rules, such as fixed-volatility rules. The empirical methodology is backtested on Banco Mexico’s FXIs data between 2008 and 2016.

The Cost of Foreign Exchange Intervention

The Cost of Foreign Exchange Intervention
Author: Gustavo Adler
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 37
Release: 2016-04-12
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 148433230X

The accumulation of large foreign asset positions by many central banks through sustained foreign exchange (FX) intervention has raised questions about its associated fiscal costs. This paper clarifies conceptual issues regarding how to measure these costs both from an ex-post and an ex-ante (relevant for decision making) perspective, and estimates both marginal and total costs for 73 countries over the period 2002-13. We find ex-ante marginal costs for the median emerging market economy (EME) in the inter-quartile range of 2-5.5 percent per year; while ex-ante total costs (of sustaining FX positions) in the range of 0.2-0.7 percent of GDP per year for light interveners and 0.3-1.2 percent of GDP per year for heavy interveners. These estimates indicate that fiscal costs of sustained FX intervention (via expanding central bank balance sheets) are not negligible.

Capital Mobility

Capital Mobility
Author: Leonardo Leiderman
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Total Pages: 400
Release: 1994-07-14
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 9780521454384

This edited volume examines capital mobility in both industrialised and developing countries.

Target Zones and Forward Rates in a Model with Repeated Realignments

Target Zones and Forward Rates in a Model with Repeated Realignments
Author: Mr.Leonardo Bartolini
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 54
Release: 1992-03-01
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1451921195

This paper studies the implications of the imperfect credibility of an exchange rate target zone on the term structure of forward premia. The relationship between spot and forward exchange rates of different maturities reflects the possibility of repeated realignments of the exchange rate band. The credibility of the commitment to the target zone implicit in forward market data can be extracted by estimating the model. Application to French/German data indicates that the model is capable of matching observed patterns of interest rate differentials during the EMS, while yielding estimates of the credibility parameters that accord with the experience of the FF/DM exchange rate during the 1980s.

European Currency Crises and After

European Currency Crises and After
Author: Christian Bordes-Marcilloux
Publisher: Manchester University Press
Total Pages: 282
Release: 1995
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 9780719047077

The speculative crises of 1992-93, which shook the EMS, left in their wake a series of questions about the monetary future of Europe, exchange rate behaviour and exchange-rate policy. This book explores these questions from the varying standpoints of econo

Currencies, Crises, Fiscal Policy, and Coordination

Currencies, Crises, Fiscal Policy, and Coordination
Author: Paul R. Masson
Publisher: World Scientific
Total Pages: 355
Release: 2011
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 981435015X

This volume provides an integrated compilation of selected major articles published by the author in several fields of international finance. These include contributions to the understanding of currency crises and financial contagion, the evolution of exchange rate regimes, the interaction between national fiscal policies and regional monetary unions, and the effect of uncertainty on the gains from international economic policy coordination. The author spent most of his career doing research at established institutions (the Bank of Canada, OECD, and IMF), and these articles emerged from the need to understand the major economic policy issues of the day. In the book's introduction, the author discusses the motivation for these contributions and the unifying themes that emerged, while a concluding chapter provides his personal reflections and suggestions about promising avenues for further research.