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| Author | : Robert E. Lucas |
| Publisher | : MIT Press (MA) |
| Total Pages | : 300 |
| Release | : 1983 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 9780262620444 |
An academic colleague has called Lucas "the dominant figure in Americanmacroeconomics." And another refers to this group of 14 essays, nearly all of which were firstpublished during the 1970s, as the most influential contribution to macroeconomics in thatdecade.
| Author | : Victor Zarnowitz |
| Publisher | : University of Chicago Press |
| Total Pages | : 613 |
| Release | : 2007-11-01 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 0226978923 |
This volume presents the most complete collection available of the work of Victor Zarnowitz, a leader in the study of business cycles, growth, inflation, and forecasting.. With characteristic insight, Zarnowitz examines theories of the business cycle, including Keynesian and monetary theories and more recent rational expectation and real business cycle theories. He also measures trends and cycles in economic activity; evaluates the performance of leading indicators and their composite measures; surveys forecasting tools and performance of business and academic economists; discusses historical changes in the nature and sources of business cycles; and analyzes how successfully forecasting firms and economists predict such key economic variables as interest rates and inflation.
| Author | : Thomas F. Cooley |
| Publisher | : Princeton University Press |
| Total Pages | : 452 |
| Release | : 1995-02-26 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 9780691043234 |
This introduction to modern business cycle theory uses a neoclassical growth framework to study the economic fluctuations associated with the business cycle. Presenting advances in dynamic economic theory and computational methods, it applies concepts to t
| Author | : Günter Gabisch |
| Publisher | : Springer Science & Business Media |
| Total Pages | : 240 |
| Release | : 2013-04-17 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 3662011786 |
"Is the business cycle obsolete?" This often cited title of a book edited by Bronfenbren ner with the implicit affirmation of the question reflected the attitude of mainstream macroeconomics in the Sixties regarding the empirical relevance of cyclic motions of an economy. The successful income policies, theoretically grounded in Keynesian macroec onomics, seemed to have eased or even abolished the fluctuations in West,ern economies which motivated studies of many classical and neoclassical economists for more than 100 years. The reasoning behind the conviction that business cycles would increasingly become irrelevant was rather simple: if an economy fluctuates for whatever reason, then it is almost always possible to neutralize these cyclic motions by means of anti-cyclic demand policies. From the 1950's until the mid-Sixties business cycle theory had often been consid ered either as an appendix to growth theory or as an academic exercise in dynamical economics. The common business cycle models were essentially multiplier-accelerator models whose sensitive dependence on parameter values (in order to be called busi ness cycle models) suggested a rather improbable occurrence of continuing oscillations. The obvious success in compensating business cycles in those days prevented intensive concern with the occurrence of cycles. Rather, business cycle theory turned into sta bilization theory which investigated theoretical possibilities of stabilizing a fluctuating economy. Many macroeconomic textbooks appeared in the Sixties which consequently identified business cycle theory with inquiries on the possibilities to stabilize economies 2 Introduction by means of active fiscal or monetary policies.
| Author | : Lars Tvede |
| Publisher | : John Wiley & Sons |
| Total Pages | : 512 |
| Release | : 2006-05-26 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : |
During our lifetime we experience any number of business cycle crises which undermine our confidence and lead many to their ruin. We also experience the ‘happy days’ when our faith in the future becomes almost limitless, and when we forget that tides always turn again. So how can we better understand and predict these cycles? To answer these questions Lars Tvede takes us through a story that moves back in time to the Scottish gambler and financial genius, John Law, and then on to the distracted Adam Smith, the stockbroker Ricardo, the investment banker Thornton, the extrovert Schumpeter, the speculator Gould and many others to trace the theory and reality of business cycles, as it has evolved over 300 years. Gradually we reach the computer jugglers of the modern day who, with giant networks of equations, try to solve the same questions that have attracted the attention of classical economists throughout the centuries. Lars Tvede concludes this historical journey with a summary of what the core of the problem is and how modern understanding of business cycles can be used to forecast economic fluctuations. The final sections of the book provide detailed studies and explanations to of how stocks, bonds, hedge funds, private equity funds, gold, diamonds, exchange rates, real estate, commodities, art and collectibles, and numerous sub-sectors of some of these markets each behave over different categories of business cycles.
| Author | : Robert Wenzel |
| Publisher | : Lulu.com |
| Total Pages | : 131 |
| Release | : 2014-06-24 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 131222827X |
An important analysis of business cycle theory, what causes economic booms and busts and what options are available to combat them.
| Author | : Lars Tvede |
| Publisher | : Routledge |
| Total Pages | : 361 |
| Release | : 2013-02-01 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 1134697902 |
Why do we experience business cycles? What creates them? Is it mass psychology, or phenomena in the management of business? Are the banks to blame or should we be looking to the unions and the politicians? Lars Tvede's story moves back in time to the Scottish gambler and financial genius, John Law, and then on to the distracted Adam Smith, the stockbroker Ricardo, the investment banker Thornton, the extrovert Schumpeter, the speculator Jay Gould and many others. The computer jugglers of the modern day, with giant networks of equations, try to solve the same questions that have attracted the attention of classical economists throughout the centuries. Throughout this volume, business cycle theories are used to explain actual events. Theoretical thinking has reflected the economist's own experiences of hyper-inflations, depressions, speculation orgies and liquidity squeezes. The reader can follow the narrative to discover how economists often thought that problems had been solved until new data changed the economic picture once again.
| Author | : Todd A. Knoop |
| Publisher | : Greenwood |
| Total Pages | : 320 |
| Release | : 2004 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : |
The economy of any nation is an intricate web of relationships among the factors determining supply and demand--and everything that affects them, from inflation to taxes to the stock market. The study of business cycles attempts to explain why economies grow and contract, experiencing periods of prosperity and pain. Consistent with the popular conception of economics as the dismal science, economists secretly long for recessions (periods of negative growth) and depressions (severe contractions), not because they enjoy their devastating impact on human welfare, but because these downturns serve as excellent laboratories for observing what happens when markets break down. Despite over two centuries of debate, no one has yet definitively unlocked the secrets of economic downturns and how they might be prevented. In Recessions and Depressions Todd Knoop traces the evolution of business cycle theory, from the classical model, which preceded the Great Depression, through the ground-breaking ideas of John Maynard Keynes, Milton Friedman, and their followers. He examines the strengths and limitations of each approach, in terms of explaining the impact of such factors as government policy, money supply, labor productivity, and wages. In the process, he presents an accessible introduction to what makes the economy tick, and offers new insights into understanding such historic events as the Great Depression, as well as more recent ones, such as the Asian meltdown in the 1990s, the financial crises in Latin America, and the U.S. recession of 2001, from which the United States is still recovering. Knoop reminds us that economists' track record in forecasting business cycles leaves much to be desired, and the quest to fully understand what causes economic downturns--and their effects on individuals and families--continues.
| Author | : Ms.Valerie Cerra |
| Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
| Total Pages | : 50 |
| Release | : 2020-05-29 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 1513536990 |
Traditionally, economic growth and business cycles have been treated independently. However, the dependence of GDP levels on its history of shocks, what economists refer to as “hysteresis,” argues for unifying the analysis of growth and cycles. In this paper, we review the recent empirical and theoretical literature that motivate this paradigm shift. The renewed interest in hysteresis has been sparked by the persistence of the Global Financial Crisis and fears of a slow recovery from the Covid-19 crisis. The findings of the recent literature have far-reaching conceptual and policy implications. In recessions, monetary and fiscal policies need to be more active to avoid the permanent scars of a downturn. And in good times, running a high-pressure economy could have permanent positive effects.
| Author | : Alain Alcouffe |
| Publisher | : Routledge |
| Total Pages | : 425 |
| Release | : 2017-01-06 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 1317207785 |
Business Cycles in Economic Thought underlines how, over the time span of two centuries, economic thought interacted with cycles in a continuous renewal of theories and rethinking of policies, whilst economic actions embedded themselves into past economic thought. This book argues that studying crises and periods of growth in different European countries will help to understand how different national, political and cultural traditions influenced the complex interaction of economic cycles and economic theorizing. The editors of this great volume bring together expert contributors consisting of economists, historians of economic thought and historians of economics, to analyse crises and theories of the nineteenth and the twentieth century. This is alongside a comprehensive outlook on the most relevant advances of economic theory in France, Germany and Italy, as well as coverage of non-European countries, such as the United States. Several of the highly prestigious Villa Vigoni Trilateral Conferences formed the background for the discussions in this book. This volume is of great interest to students and academics who study history of economic thought, political economy and macroeconomics.
