Forecast

Forecast
Author: Mark Buchanan
Publisher: A&C Black
Total Pages: 273
Release: 2013-01-01
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1408827379

Positive feedback--when A produces B, which in turn produces even more A--drives not only abrupt climate changes, but also disruptive events in economics and finance, from asset bubbles to debt crises, bank runs, even corporate corruption. But economists, with few exceptions, have ignored this reality for fifty years, holding on to the unreasonable belief in the wisdom of the market. It's past time to be asking how markets really work. Can we replace economic magical thinking with a better means of predicting what the financial future holds, in order to prepare for--or even avoid--the next extreme economic event? Here, physicist and acclaimed science writer Mark Buchanan answers these questions and more in a master lesson on a smarter economics, which accepts that markets act much like weather. Market instability is as natural--and dangerous--as a prairie twister. With Buchanan's help, perhaps we can better govern the markets and weather their storms.

Deep Learning with Keras

Deep Learning with Keras
Author: Antonio Gulli
Publisher: Packt Publishing Ltd
Total Pages: 310
Release: 2017-04-26
Genre: Computers
ISBN: 1787129039

Get to grips with the basics of Keras to implement fast and efficient deep-learning models About This Book Implement various deep-learning algorithms in Keras and see how deep-learning can be used in games See how various deep-learning models and practical use-cases can be implemented using Keras A practical, hands-on guide with real-world examples to give you a strong foundation in Keras Who This Book Is For If you are a data scientist with experience in machine learning or an AI programmer with some exposure to neural networks, you will find this book a useful entry point to deep-learning with Keras. A knowledge of Python is required for this book. What You Will Learn Optimize step-by-step functions on a large neural network using the Backpropagation Algorithm Fine-tune a neural network to improve the quality of results Use deep learning for image and audio processing Use Recursive Neural Tensor Networks (RNTNs) to outperform standard word embedding in special cases Identify problems for which Recurrent Neural Network (RNN) solutions are suitable Explore the process required to implement Autoencoders Evolve a deep neural network using reinforcement learning In Detail This book starts by introducing you to supervised learning algorithms such as simple linear regression, the classical multilayer perceptron and more sophisticated deep convolutional networks. You will also explore image processing with recognition of hand written digit images, classification of images into different categories, and advanced objects recognition with related image annotations. An example of identification of salient points for face detection is also provided. Next you will be introduced to Recurrent Networks, which are optimized for processing sequence data such as text, audio or time series. Following that, you will learn about unsupervised learning algorithms such as Autoencoders and the very popular Generative Adversarial Networks (GAN). You will also explore non-traditional uses of neural networks as Style Transfer. Finally, you will look at Reinforcement Learning and its application to AI game playing, another popular direction of research and application of neural networks. Style and approach This book is an easy-to-follow guide full of examples and real-world applications to help you gain an in-depth understanding of Keras. This book will showcase more than twenty working Deep Neural Networks coded in Python using Keras.

Business Forecasting

Business Forecasting
Author: Michael Gilliland
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
Total Pages: 435
Release: 2021-05-11
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1119782473

Discover the role of machine learning and artificial intelligence in business forecasting from some of the brightest minds in the field In Business Forecasting: The Emerging Role of Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning accomplished authors Michael Gilliland, Len Tashman, and Udo Sglavo deliver relevant and timely insights from some of the most important and influential authors in the field of forecasting. You'll learn about the role played by machine learning and AI in the forecasting process and discover brand-new research, case studies, and thoughtful discussions covering an array of practical topics. The book offers multiple perspectives on issues like monitoring forecast performance, forecasting process, communication and accountability for forecasts, and the use of big data in forecasting. You will find: Discussions on deep learning in forecasting, including current trends and challenges Explorations of neural network-based forecasting strategies A treatment of the future of artificial intelligence in business forecasting Analyses of forecasting methods, including modeling, selection, and monitoring In addition to the Foreword by renowned researchers Spyros Makridakis and Fotios Petropoulos, the book also includes 16 "opinion/editorial" Afterwords by a diverse range of top academics, consultants, vendors, and industry practitioners, each providing their own unique vision of the issues, current state, and future direction of business forecasting. Perfect for financial controllers, chief financial officers, business analysts, forecast analysts, and demand planners, Business Forecasting will also earn a place in the libraries of other executives and managers who seek a one-stop resource to help them critically assess and improve their own organization's forecasting efforts.

Limit Order Books

Limit Order Books
Author: Frédéric Abergel
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Total Pages: 242
Release: 2016-05-09
Genre: Mathematics
ISBN: 1316870480

A limit order book is essentially a file on a computer that contains all orders sent to the market, along with their characteristics such as the sign of the order, price, quantity and a timestamp. The majority of organized electronic markets rely on limit order books to store the list of interests of market participants on their central computer. A limit order book contains all the information available on a specific market and it reflects the way the market moves under the influence of its participants. This book discusses several models of limit order books. It begins by discussing the data to assess their empirical properties, and then moves on to mathematical models in order to reproduce the observed properties. Finally, the book presents a framework for numerical simulations. It also covers important modelling techniques including agent-based modelling, and advanced modelling of limit order books based on Hawkes processes. The book also provides in-depth coverage of simulation techniques and introduces general, flexible, open source library concepts useful to readers studying trading strategies in order-driven markets.

How I Became a Quant

How I Became a Quant
Author: Richard R. Lindsey
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
Total Pages: 406
Release: 2011-01-11
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1118044754

Praise for How I Became a Quant "Led by two top-notch quants, Richard R. Lindsey and Barry Schachter, How I Became a Quant details the quirky world of quantitative analysis through stories told by some of today's most successful quants. For anyone who might have thought otherwise, there are engaging personalities behind all that number crunching!" --Ira Kawaller, Kawaller & Co. and the Kawaller Fund "A fun and fascinating read. This book tells the story of how academics, physicists, mathematicians, and other scientists became professional investors managing billions." --David A. Krell, President and CEO, International Securities Exchange "How I Became a Quant should be must reading for all students with a quantitative aptitude. It provides fascinating examples of the dynamic career opportunities potentially open to anyone with the skills and passion for quantitative analysis." --Roy D. Henriksson, Chief Investment Officer, Advanced Portfolio Management "Quants"--those who design and implement mathematical models for the pricing of derivatives, assessment of risk, or prediction of market movements--are the backbone of today's investment industry. As the greater volatility of current financial markets has driven investors to seek shelter from increasing uncertainty, the quant revolution has given people the opportunity to avoid unwanted financial risk by literally trading it away, or more specifically, paying someone else to take on the unwanted risk. How I Became a Quant reveals the faces behind the quant revolution, offering you?the?chance to learn firsthand what it's like to be a?quant today. In this fascinating collection of Wall Street war stories, more than two dozen quants detail their roots, roles, and contributions, explaining what they do and how they do it, as well as outlining the sometimes unexpected paths they have followed from the halls of academia to the front lines of an investment revolution.

Why Stock Markets Crash

Why Stock Markets Crash
Author: Didier Sornette
Publisher: Princeton University Press
Total Pages: 449
Release: 2017-03-21
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1400885094

The scientific study of complex systems has transformed a wide range of disciplines in recent years, enabling researchers in both the natural and social sciences to model and predict phenomena as diverse as earthquakes, global warming, demographic patterns, financial crises, and the failure of materials. In this book, Didier Sornette boldly applies his varied experience in these areas to propose a simple, powerful, and general theory of how, why, and when stock markets crash. Most attempts to explain market failures seek to pinpoint triggering mechanisms that occur hours, days, or weeks before the collapse. Sornette proposes a radically different view: the underlying cause can be sought months and even years before the abrupt, catastrophic event in the build-up of cooperative speculation, which often translates into an accelerating rise of the market price, otherwise known as a "bubble." Anchoring his sophisticated, step-by-step analysis in leading-edge physical and statistical modeling techniques, he unearths remarkable insights and some predictions--among them, that the "end of the growth era" will occur around 2050. Sornette probes major historical precedents, from the decades-long "tulip mania" in the Netherlands that wilted suddenly in 1637 to the South Sea Bubble that ended with the first huge market crash in England in 1720, to the Great Crash of October 1929 and Black Monday in 1987, to cite just a few. He concludes that most explanations other than cooperative self-organization fail to account for the subtle bubbles by which the markets lay the groundwork for catastrophe. Any investor or investment professional who seeks a genuine understanding of looming financial disasters should read this book. Physicists, geologists, biologists, economists, and others will welcome Why Stock Markets Crash as a highly original "scientific tale," as Sornette aptly puts it, of the exciting and sometimes fearsome--but no longer quite so unfathomable--world of stock markets.

Stock Price Predictions

Stock Price Predictions
Author: Azhar Ul Haque Sario
Publisher: Independently Published
Total Pages: 0
Release: 2023-07-13
Genre:
ISBN:

"Stock Price Predictions: An Introduction to Probabilistic Models" is a comprehensive guide that delves into the intricate world of stock market prediction models. This book is a treasure trove of knowledge for both novice and seasoned investors, providing detailed explanations of traditional and modern approaches used to predict stock prices. In the first part of the book, "Traditional Approaches, " the author examines the most commonly used techniques for estimating share prices, such as Fundamental Analysis, Technical Analysis, and Quantitative Analysis. It also delves into more specific methods like Sentiment Analysis, Time Series Analysis, and Machine Learning Algorithms, among others. Each method is meticulously explained, providing readers with a sound understanding of the strengths and limitations of each approach. The second part, "Understanding the World of Probability-Based Models," introduces readers to the realm of probability models, explaining their role and different types. It covers a wide range of models like ARIMA, GARCH, VAR, MGARCH, Stochastic Volatility Models, and many more. Each model is discussed in depth, with explanations of how they can be used to estimate future share prices. This section serves as an excellent resource for those seeking to expand their knowledge and skills in using probability-based models for stock price prediction. The final section, "Instances of Successful Forecasts Using Probability-Based Models," provides real-world examples of successful forecasts using these models. It includes well-known models like the Black-Scholes Model, Monte Carlo Simulations, Brownian Motion Model, ARIMA, and GARCH Model. The book concludes with a discussion on the success of more contemporary models like LSTM and Facebook's Prophet.

The World Scientific Handbook of Futures Markets

The World Scientific Handbook of Futures Markets
Author: Anastasios G. E. T. Al MALLIARIS
Publisher: World Scientific
Total Pages: 844
Release: 2015-08-06
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 9814566926

"The World Scientific Handbook of Futures Markets serves as a definitive source for comprehensive and accessible information in futures markets. The emphasis is on the unique characteristics of futures markets that make them worthy of a special volume. In our judgment, futures markets are currently undergoing remarkable changes as trading is shifting from open outcry to electronic and as the traditional functions of hedging and speculation are extended to include futures as an alternative investment vehicle in traditional portfolios. The unique feature of this volume is the selection of five classic papers that lay the foundations of the futures markets and the invitation to the leading academics who do work in the area to write critical surveys in a dozen important topics."--$cProvided by publisher.

Soft Computing in Data Analytics

Soft Computing in Data Analytics
Author: Janmenjoy Nayak
Publisher: Springer
Total Pages: 848
Release: 2018-08-21
Genre: Technology & Engineering
ISBN: 9811305145

The volume contains original research findings, exchange of ideas and dissemination of innovative, practical development experiences in different fields of soft and advance computing. It provides insights into the International Conference on Soft Computing in Data Analytics (SCDA). It also concentrates on both theory and practices from around the world in all the areas of related disciplines of soft computing. The book provides rapid dissemination of important results in soft computing technologies, a fusion of research in fuzzy logic, evolutionary computations, neural science and neural network systems and chaos theory and chaotic systems, swarm based algorithms, etc. The book aims to cater the postgraduate students and researchers working in the discipline of computer science and engineering along with other engineering branches.