The Oxford Handbook of Economic Forecasting

The Oxford Handbook of Economic Forecasting
Author: Michael P. Clements
Publisher: OUP USA
Total Pages: 732
Release: 2011-07-08
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 0195398645

Greater data availability has been coupled with developments in statistical theory and economic theory to allow more elaborate and complicated models to be entertained. These include factor models, DSGE models, restricted vector autoregressions, and non-linear models.

Dynamic Factor Models

Dynamic Factor Models
Author: Siem Jan Koopman
Publisher: Emerald Group Publishing
Total Pages: 685
Release: 2016-01-08
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1785603523

This volume explores dynamic factor model specification, asymptotic and finite-sample behavior of parameter estimators, identification, frequentist and Bayesian estimation of the corresponding state space models, and applications.

Dynamic Linear Models with R

Dynamic Linear Models with R
Author: Giovanni Petris
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Total Pages: 258
Release: 2009-06-12
Genre: Mathematics
ISBN: 0387772383

State space models have gained tremendous popularity in recent years in as disparate fields as engineering, economics, genetics and ecology. After a detailed introduction to general state space models, this book focuses on dynamic linear models, emphasizing their Bayesian analysis. Whenever possible it is shown how to compute estimates and forecasts in closed form; for more complex models, simulation techniques are used. A final chapter covers modern sequential Monte Carlo algorithms. The book illustrates all the fundamental steps needed to use dynamic linear models in practice, using R. Many detailed examples based on real data sets are provided to show how to set up a specific model, estimate its parameters, and use it for forecasting. All the code used in the book is available online. No prior knowledge of Bayesian statistics or time series analysis is required, although familiarity with basic statistics and R is assumed.

Bayesian Estimation of DSGE Models

Bayesian Estimation of DSGE Models
Author: Edward P. Herbst
Publisher: Princeton University Press
Total Pages: 295
Release: 2015-12-29
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 0691161089

Dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models have become one of the workhorses of modern macroeconomics and are extensively used for academic research as well as forecasting and policy analysis at central banks. This book introduces readers to state-of-the-art computational techniques used in the Bayesian analysis of DSGE models. The book covers Markov chain Monte Carlo techniques for linearized DSGE models, novel sequential Monte Carlo methods that can be used for parameter inference, and the estimation of nonlinear DSGE models based on particle filter approximations of the likelihood function. The theoretical foundations of the algorithms are discussed in depth, and detailed empirical applications and numerical illustrations are provided. The book also gives invaluable advice on how to tailor these algorithms to specific applications and assess the accuracy and reliability of the computations. Bayesian Estimation of DSGE Models is essential reading for graduate students, academic researchers, and practitioners at policy institutions.

The Oxford Handbook of Bayesian Econometrics

The Oxford Handbook of Bayesian Econometrics
Author: John Geweke
Publisher: Oxford University Press
Total Pages: 576
Release: 2011-09-29
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 0191618268

Bayesian econometric methods have enjoyed an increase in popularity in recent years. Econometricians, empirical economists, and policymakers are increasingly making use of Bayesian methods. This handbook is a single source for researchers and policymakers wanting to learn about Bayesian methods in specialized fields, and for graduate students seeking to make the final step from textbook learning to the research frontier. It contains contributions by leading Bayesians on the latest developments in their specific fields of expertise. The volume provides broad coverage of the application of Bayesian econometrics in the major fields of economics and related disciplines, including macroeconomics, microeconomics, finance, and marketing. It reviews the state of the art in Bayesian econometric methodology, with chapters on posterior simulation and Markov chain Monte Carlo methods, Bayesian nonparametric techniques, and the specialized tools used by Bayesian time series econometricians such as state space models and particle filtering. It also includes chapters on Bayesian principles and methodology.

Bayesian Hierarchical Models

Bayesian Hierarchical Models
Author: Peter D. Congdon
Publisher: CRC Press
Total Pages: 487
Release: 2019-09-16
Genre: Mathematics
ISBN: 0429532903

An intermediate-level treatment of Bayesian hierarchical models and their applications, this book demonstrates the advantages of a Bayesian approach to data sets involving inferences for collections of related units or variables, and in methods where parameters can be treated as random collections. Through illustrative data analysis and attention to statistical computing, this book facilitates practical implementation of Bayesian hierarchical methods. The new edition is a revision of the book Applied Bayesian Hierarchical Methods. It maintains a focus on applied modelling and data analysis, but now using entirely R-based Bayesian computing options. It has been updated with a new chapter on regression for causal effects, and one on computing options and strategies. This latter chapter is particularly important, due to recent advances in Bayesian computing and estimation, including the development of rjags and rstan. It also features updates throughout with new examples. The examples exploit and illustrate the broader advantages of the R computing environment, while allowing readers to explore alternative likelihood assumptions, regression structures, and assumptions on prior densities. Features: Provides a comprehensive and accessible overview of applied Bayesian hierarchical modelling Includes many real data examples to illustrate different modelling topics R code (based on rjags, jagsUI, R2OpenBUGS, and rstan) is integrated into the book, emphasizing implementation Software options and coding principles are introduced in new chapter on computing Programs and data sets available on the book’s website

Simultaneous Statistical Inference

Simultaneous Statistical Inference
Author: Thorsten Dickhaus
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Total Pages: 182
Release: 2014-01-23
Genre: Science
ISBN: 3642451829

This monograph will provide an in-depth mathematical treatment of modern multiple test procedures controlling the false discovery rate (FDR) and related error measures, particularly addressing applications to fields such as genetics, proteomics, neuroscience and general biology. The book will also include a detailed description how to implement these methods in practice. Moreover new developments focusing on non-standard assumptions are also included, especially multiple tests for discrete data. The book primarily addresses researchers and practitioners but will also be beneficial for graduate students.

Bayesian Multivariate Time Series Methods for Empirical Macroeconomics

Bayesian Multivariate Time Series Methods for Empirical Macroeconomics
Author: Gary Koop
Publisher: Now Publishers Inc
Total Pages: 104
Release: 2010
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 160198362X

Bayesian Multivariate Time Series Methods for Empirical Macroeconomics provides a survey of the Bayesian methods used in modern empirical macroeconomics. These models have been developed to address the fact that most questions of interest to empirical macroeconomists involve several variables and must be addressed using multivariate time series methods. Many different multivariate time series models have been used in macroeconomics, but Vector Autoregressive (VAR) models have been among the most popular. Bayesian Multivariate Time Series Methods for Empirical Macroeconomics reviews and extends the Bayesian literature on VARs, TVP-VARs and TVP-FAVARs with a focus on the practitioner. The authors go beyond simply defining each model, but specify how to use them in practice, discuss the advantages and disadvantages of each and offer tips on when and why each model can be used.

Bayesian Forecasting and Dynamic Models

Bayesian Forecasting and Dynamic Models
Author: Mike West
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Total Pages: 720
Release: 2013-06-29
Genre: Mathematics
ISBN: 1475793650

In this book we are concerned with Bayesian learning and forecast ing in dynamic environments. We describe the structure and theory of classes of dynamic models, and their uses in Bayesian forecasting. The principles, models and methods of Bayesian forecasting have been developed extensively during the last twenty years. This devel opment has involved thorough investigation of mathematical and sta tistical aspects of forecasting models and related techniques. With this has come experience with application in a variety of areas in commercial and industrial, scientific and socio-economic fields. In deed much of the technical development has been driven by the needs of forecasting practitioners. As a result, there now exists a relatively complete statistical and mathematical framework, although much of this is either not properly documented or not easily accessible. Our primary goals in writing this book have been to present our view of this approach to modelling and forecasting, and to provide a rea sonably complete text for advanced university students and research workers. The text is primarily intended for advanced undergraduate and postgraduate students in statistics and mathematics. In line with this objective we present thorough discussion of mathematical and statistical features of Bayesian analyses of dynamic models, with illustrations, examples and exercises in each Chapter.