Uncertainty Forecasting in Engineering

Uncertainty Forecasting in Engineering
Author: Bernd Möller
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Total Pages: 202
Release: 2007-08-15
Genre: Mathematics
ISBN: 3540371761

Observations of uncertainty in measured data with time improves forecasting capability in a wide range of fields in engineering. This book provides an introduction to uncertainty forecasting based on fuzzy time series. It details descriptive, modeling, and forecasting methods for fuzzy time series. Coverage places emphasis on forecasting based on fuzzy random processes as well as forecasting involving fuzzy neuronal networks.

Next Generation Earth System Prediction

Next Generation Earth System Prediction
Author: National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine
Publisher: National Academies Press
Total Pages: 351
Release: 2016-08-22
Genre: Science
ISBN: 0309388805

As the nation's economic activities, security concerns, and stewardship of natural resources become increasingly complex and globally interrelated, they become ever more sensitive to adverse impacts from weather, climate, and other natural phenomena. For several decades, forecasts with lead times of a few days for weather and other environmental phenomena have yielded valuable information to improve decision-making across all sectors of society. Developing the capability to forecast environmental conditions and disruptive events several weeks and months in advance could dramatically increase the value and benefit of environmental predictions, saving lives, protecting property, increasing economic vitality, protecting the environment, and informing policy choices. Over the past decade, the ability to forecast weather and climate conditions on subseasonal to seasonal (S2S) timescales, i.e., two to fifty-two weeks in advance, has improved substantially. Although significant progress has been made, much work remains to make S2S predictions skillful enough, as well as optimally tailored and communicated, to enable widespread use. Next Generation Earth System Predictions presents a ten-year U.S. research agenda that increases the nation's S2S research and modeling capability, advances S2S forecasting, and aids in decision making at medium and extended lead times.

On Replenishment Rules, Forecasting, and the Bullwhip Effect in Supply Chains

On Replenishment Rules, Forecasting, and the Bullwhip Effect in Supply Chains
Author: Stephen M. Disney
Publisher: Now Publishers Inc
Total Pages: 95
Release: 2008
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1601981325

In this review we focus on supply coordination and use the bullwhip effect as the key example of supply chain inefficiency. We emphasize the managerial relevance of the bullwhip effect and the methodological issues so that both managers and researchers can benefit.

The Elements of Statistical Learning

The Elements of Statistical Learning
Author: Trevor Hastie
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Total Pages: 545
Release: 2013-11-11
Genre: Mathematics
ISBN: 0387216065

During the past decade there has been an explosion in computation and information technology. With it have come vast amounts of data in a variety of fields such as medicine, biology, finance, and marketing. The challenge of understanding these data has led to the development of new tools in the field of statistics, and spawned new areas such as data mining, machine learning, and bioinformatics. Many of these tools have common underpinnings but are often expressed with different terminology. This book describes the important ideas in these areas in a common conceptual framework. While the approach is statistical, the emphasis is on concepts rather than mathematics. Many examples are given, with a liberal use of color graphics. It should be a valuable resource for statisticians and anyone interested in data mining in science or industry. The book’s coverage is broad, from supervised learning (prediction) to unsupervised learning. The many topics include neural networks, support vector machines, classification trees and boosting---the first comprehensive treatment of this topic in any book. This major new edition features many topics not covered in the original, including graphical models, random forests, ensemble methods, least angle regression & path algorithms for the lasso, non-negative matrix factorization, and spectral clustering. There is also a chapter on methods for “wide” data (p bigger than n), including multiple testing and false discovery rates. Trevor Hastie, Robert Tibshirani, and Jerome Friedman are professors of statistics at Stanford University. They are prominent researchers in this area: Hastie and Tibshirani developed generalized additive models and wrote a popular book of that title. Hastie co-developed much of the statistical modeling software and environment in R/S-PLUS and invented principal curves and surfaces. Tibshirani proposed the lasso and is co-author of the very successful An Introduction to the Bootstrap. Friedman is the co-inventor of many data-mining tools including CART, MARS, projection pursuit and gradient boosting.

Aviation Weather Handbook (2024)

Aviation Weather Handbook (2024)
Author: Federal Aviation Administration
Publisher: Simon and Schuster
Total Pages: 740
Release: 2024-02-20
Genre: Transportation
ISBN: 1510780203

THE ESSENTIAL FULL-COLOR WEATHER HANDBOOK FOR PILOTS! This handbook consolidates the weather information from six FAA weather-related advisory circulars (AC) into one useful publication. The following ACs will eventually be cancelled and replaced by this handbook: AC 00-06, Aviation Weather AC 00-24, Thunderstorms AC 00-30, Clear Air Turbulence Avoidance AC 00-45, Aviation Weather Services AC 00-54, Pilot Windshear Guide AC 00-57, Hazardous Mountain Winds The FAA designed Aviation Weather Handbook as a technical reference for all who operate in the National Aerospace System (NAS). Pilots, dispatchers, and operators will find this handbook a valuable resource for flight planning and decision making. With a complete guide to the United States' aviation weather program, products, and services, it also documents weather theory and its application to aviation. The objective of this handbook is to help the pilot and operator understand the basics of weather, aviation weather hazards, and aviation weather products. Beginners and advanced pilots alike will find the Aviation Weather Handbook to be a critical resource for all aviation weather subjects.

Introduction to Time Series Forecasting With Python

Introduction to Time Series Forecasting With Python
Author: Jason Brownlee
Publisher: Machine Learning Mastery
Total Pages: 359
Release: 2017-02-16
Genre: Mathematics
ISBN:

Time series forecasting is different from other machine learning problems. The key difference is the fixed sequence of observations and the constraints and additional structure this provides. In this Ebook, finally cut through the math and specialized methods for time series forecasting. Using clear explanations, standard Python libraries and step-by-step tutorials you will discover how to load and prepare data, evaluate model skill, and implement forecasting models for time series data.

Time-Series Forecasting

Time-Series Forecasting
Author: Chris Chatfield
Publisher: CRC Press
Total Pages: 281
Release: 2000-10-25
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1420036203

From the author of the bestselling "Analysis of Time Series," Time-Series Forecasting offers a comprehensive, up-to-date review of forecasting methods. It provides a summary of time-series modelling procedures, followed by a brief catalogue of many different time-series forecasting methods, ranging from ad-hoc methods through ARIMA and state-space