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| Author | : J.S. Armstrong |
| Publisher | : Springer Science & Business Media |
| Total Pages | : 880 |
| Release | : 2001 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 9780792374015 |
This handbook summarises knowledge from experts and empirical studies. It provides guidelines that can be applied in fields such as economics, sociology, and psychology. Includes a comprehensive forecasting dictionary.
| Author | : R. Bradley MacKay |
| Publisher | : Cambridge University Press |
| Total Pages | : 175 |
| Release | : 2018-10-04 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 1108664318 |
This Element infuses established scenario planning routines with an exploration of cognitive reasoning, by contextualising scenario thinking within the wider human endeavour of grappling with future uncertainties. A study of ancient civilisations shows that scenario thinking is not new, but has evolved significantly since ancient times. By de-coupling scenario thinking from scenario planning, it is elevated as the essential ingredient in managerial foresight projects. The historical theme continues, focussing on the evolution of modern scenario planning, by way of the French and Anglo-American schools of thought, using the intuitive logics methodology. Archival research has discovered early contributions in the UK around the development and use of scenario thinking in public policy, which has been overlooked in many received histories. Finally, the usefulness of scenario thinking for strategic management is challenged here and the argument that it is a heuristic device for overcoming cognitive biases and making better strategic decisions is refined.
| Author | : George Wright |
| Publisher | : |
| Total Pages | : 312 |
| Release | : 1987-05-08 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : |
Concerned with both the academic and practical aspects of judgmental forecasting, this book presents an overview of judgmental forecasting for a multidisciplinary audience. The book includes sections on the psychology of individual judgment and judgment from groups of individuals.
| Author | : Rob J Hyndman |
| Publisher | : OTexts |
| Total Pages | : 380 |
| Release | : 2018-05-08 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 0987507117 |
Forecasting is required in many situations. Stocking an inventory may require forecasts of demand months in advance. Telecommunication routing requires traffic forecasts a few minutes ahead. Whatever the circumstances or time horizons involved, forecasting is an important aid in effective and efficient planning. This textbook provides a comprehensive introduction to forecasting methods and presents enough information about each method for readers to use them sensibly.
| Author | : Klaus Fiedler |
| Publisher | : Cambridge University Press |
| Total Pages | : 504 |
| Release | : 2006 |
| Genre | : Psychology |
| ISBN | : 9780521831598 |
This book proposes that environmental information samples are biased and cognitive processes are not.
| Author | : James R. Larson, Jr. |
| Publisher | : Psychology Press |
| Total Pages | : 433 |
| Release | : 2013-01-11 |
| Genre | : Psychology |
| ISBN | : 113695077X |
This volume critically evaluates more than a century of empirical research on the effectiveness of small, task-performing groups, and offers a fresh look at the costs and benefits of collaborative work arrangements. The central question taken up by this book is whether -- and under what conditions -- interaction among group members leads to better performance than would otherwise be achieved simply by combining the separate efforts of an equal number of people who work independently. This question is considered with respect to a range of tasks (idea-generation, problem solving, judgment, and decision-making) and from several different process perspectives (learning and memory, motivation, and member diversity). As a framework for assessing the empirical literature, the book introduces the concept of 'synergy.' Synergy refers to an objective gain in performance that is attributable to group interaction. Further, it distinguishes between weak and strong synergy, which are performance gains of different magnitude. The book highlights the currently available empirical evidence for both weak and strong synergy, identifies the conditions that seem necessary to produce each, and suggests where the search for synergy might best be directed in the future. The book is at once a high-level introduction to the field, a review of the field's history, and a scholarly critique of the current state-of-the-art. As such, it is essential reading for graduate students, advanced undergraduate students, and researchers interested in group dynamics generally -- and small group performance in particular.
| Author | : Gerard P. Hodgkinson |
| Publisher | : Oxford University Press |
| Total Pages | : 651 |
| Release | : 2008-03-06 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 0191558605 |
The Oxford Handbook of Organizational Decision Making comprehensively surveys theory and research on organizational decision-making, broadly conceived. Emphasizing psychological perspectives, while encompassing the insights of economics, political science, and sociology, it provides coverage at the individual, group, organizational, and inter-organizational levels of analysis. In-depth case studies illustrate the practical implications of the work surveyed. Each chapter is authored by one or more leading scholars, thus ensuring that this Handbook is an authoritative reference work for academics, researchers, advanced students, and reflective practitioners concerned with decision-making in the areas of Management, Psychology, and HRM. Contributors: Eric Abrahamson, Julia Balogun, Michael L. Barnett, Philippe Baumard, Nicole Bourque, Laure Cabantous, Prithviraj Chattopadhyay, Kevin Daniels, Jerker Denrell, Vinit M. Desai, Giovanni Dosi, Roger L.M. Dunbar, Stephen M. Fiore, Mark A. Fuller, Michael Shayne Gary, Elizabeth George, Jean-Pascal Gond, Paul Goodwin, Terri L. Griffith, Mark P. Healey, Gerard P. Hodgkinson, Gerry Johnson, Michael Johnson-Cramer, Alfred Kieser, Ann Langley, Eleanor T. Lewis, Dan Lovallo, Rebecca Lyons, Peter M. Madsen, A. John Maule, John M. Mezias, Nigel Nicholson, Gregory B. Northcraft, David Oliver, Annie Pye, Karlene H. Roberts, Jacques Rojot, Michael A. Rosen, Isabelle Royer, Eugene Sadler-Smith, Eduardo Salas, Kristyn A. Scott, Zur Shapira, Carolyne Smart, Gerald F. Smith, Emma Soane, Paul R. Sparrow, William H. Starbuck, Matt Statler, Kathleen M. Sutcliffe, Michal Tamuz, Teri Jane Ursacki-Bryant, Ilan Vertinsky, Bénédicte Vidaillet, Jane Webster, Karl E. Weick, Benjamin Wellstein, George Wright, Kuo Frank Yu, and David Zweig.
| Author | : Shardul S. Phadnis |
| Publisher | : Springer Nature |
| Total Pages | : 244 |
| Release | : 2022-04-12 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 3030918106 |
This book presents a strategic decision-making process (i.e., scenario planning) to help managers build supply chain infrastructures that can adapt to uncertain shifts in the business environment. The authors detail the process for developing and applying scenarios for strategic planning in organizations playing three different roles in supply chains. Using three cases in which the process was applied in association with the MIT Center for Transportation & Logistics, this primer also explains how companies can monitor their business environments to decide when to take the necessary steps to adapt their supply chain strategies and assets. The lessons learned are applicable globally: in first-world free-market economies, emerging countries and poorer nations, as well as the states where the government plays a strong role in the economic activity. For companies looking to assess the numerous drivers shaping their supply chains and use that information to make living strategic plans, this book will teach you how to build adaptable and agile supply chains. It will explain how to approach long-term investments in your organization.
| Author | : Nada Sanders |
| Publisher | : Business Expert Press |
| Total Pages | : 110 |
| Release | : 2016-11-14 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 1606498711 |
This book is for everyone who wants to make better forecasts. It is not about mathematics and statistics. It is about following a well-established forecasting process to create and implement good forecasts. This is true whether you are forecasting global markets, sales of SKUs, competitive strategy, or market disruptions. Today, most forecasts are generated using software. However, no amount of technology and statistics can compensate for a poor forecasting process. Forecasting is not just about generating a number. Forecasters need to understand the problems they are trying to solve. They also need to follow a process that is justifiable to other parties and be implemented in practice. This is what the book is about. Accurate forecasts are essential for predicting demand, identifying new market opportunities, forecasting risks, disruptions, innovation, competition, market growth and trends. Companies can navigate this daunting landscape and improve their forecasts by following some well-established principles. This book is written to provide the fundamentals business leaders need in order to make good forecasts. These fundamentals hold true regardless of what is being forecast and what technology is being used. It provides the basic foundational principles all companies need to achieve competitive forecast accuracy.
