Risk-sensitive Optimal Control with Forward-looking Variables

Risk-sensitive Optimal Control with Forward-looking Variables
Author: Guido Traficante
Publisher:
Total Pages: 0
Release: 2023
Genre:
ISBN:

We discuss how to solve infinite-horizon optimal control problems with recursive preferences à la Hansen and Sargent (1995) when both backward and forward-looking variables enter into the law of motion regulating the system dynamics. With our analysis we establish: 1) under which conditions the risk-adjustment in the objective function of the standard linear-quadratic formulation introduced by Hansen and Sargent affects the optimal policy; 2) how the optimal rule in a stationary solution is identified solving two distinct fixed-point problems, the former pertaining to the optimization exercise, the latter to the expected values of the forward-looking variables. Applying our methodology to Smets and Wouters' (Smets and Wouters, 2003) new-Keynesian model of monetary policy, we show how a central bank endowed with recursive preferences `a la Hansen and Sargent (1995) selects a more aggressive policy than one furnished with quadratic costs.

Risk-Sensitive Optimal Control

Risk-Sensitive Optimal Control
Author: Peter Whittle
Publisher:
Total Pages: 266
Release: 1990-05-11
Genre: Mathematics
ISBN:

The two major themes of this book are risk-sensitive control and path-integral or Hamiltonian formulation. It covers risk-sensitive certainty-equivalence principles, the consequent extension of the conventional LQG treatment and the path-integral formulation.

Risk-Sensitive Control and an Optimal Investment Model

Risk-Sensitive Control and an Optimal Investment Model
Author: Wendell H. Fleming
Publisher:
Total Pages:
Release: 2001
Genre:
ISBN:

We consider an optimal investment model in which the goal is to maximize the long-term growth rate of expected utility of wealth. In the model, the mean returns of the securities are explicitly affected by the underlying economic factors. The utility function is HARA. The problem is reformulated as an infinite time horizon risk-sensitive control problem. We study the dynamic programming equation associated with this control problem and derive some consequences of the investment problem.

Stochastic Optimal Control, International Finance, and Debt Crises

Stochastic Optimal Control, International Finance, and Debt Crises
Author: Jerome L. Stein
Publisher: Oxford University Press, USA
Total Pages: 305
Release: 2006-04-06
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 0199280576

This book focuses on the interaction between equilibrium real exchange rates, optimal external debt, endogenous optimal growth and current account balances, in a world of uncertainty. The theoretical parts result from interdisciplinary research between economics and applied mathematics. From the economic theory and the mathematics of stochastic optimal control the author derives benchmarks for the optimal debt and equilibrium real exchange rate in an environment where both thereturn on capital and the real rate of interest are stochastic variables. The theoretically derived equilibrium real exchange rate - the "natural real exchange rate" NATREX - is where the real exchange rate is heading. These benchmarks are applied to answer the following questions.* What is a theoretically based empirical measure of a "misaligned" exchange rate that increases the probability of a significant depreciation or a currency crisis?* What is a theoretically based empirical measure of an "excess" debt that increases the probability of or a debt crisis?* What is the interaction between an excess debt and a misaligned exchange rate?The theory is applied to evaluate the Euro exchange rate, the exchange rates of the transition economies, the sustainability of U.S. current account deficits, and derives warning signals of the Asian crises and debt crises in emerging markets.

Linear Risk-Averse Optimal Control Problems

Linear Risk-Averse Optimal Control Problems
Author: Paolo Vitale
Publisher:
Total Pages: 42
Release: 2013
Genre:
ISBN:

We discuss how Whittle's (Whittle, 1990) approach to risk-sensitive optimal control problems can be applied in economics and finance. We show how his analysis of the class of Linear Exponential Quadratic Gaussian problems can be extended to accommodate time-discounting, while preserving its simple and general recursive solutions. We apply Whittle's methodology investigating two specific problems in financial economics and monetary policy.

Technology, Innovations and Growth

Technology, Innovations and Growth
Author: J. K. Sengupta
Publisher: Springer
Total Pages: 298
Release: 2010-11-02
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 0230295258

This book provides detailed empirical analysis of countries in Asia to examine various dynamic models that incorporate the impact of technology and innovations on the industry evolution and overall economic growth.

Robustness

Robustness
Author: Lars Peter Hansen
Publisher: Princeton University Press
Total Pages: 453
Release: 2016-06-28
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 0691170975

The standard theory of decision making under uncertainty advises the decision maker to form a statistical model linking outcomes to decisions and then to choose the optimal distribution of outcomes. This assumes that the decision maker trusts the model completely. But what should a decision maker do if the model cannot be trusted? Lars Hansen and Thomas Sargent, two leading macroeconomists, push the field forward as they set about answering this question. They adapt robust control techniques and apply them to economics. By using this theory to let decision makers acknowledge misspecification in economic modeling, the authors develop applications to a variety of problems in dynamic macroeconomics. Technical, rigorous, and self-contained, this book will be useful for macroeconomists who seek to improve the robustness of decision-making processes.