Revisions In Official Data And Forecasting
Download Revisions In Official Data And Forecasting full books in PDF, epub, and Kindle. Read online free Revisions In Official Data And Forecasting ebook anywhere anytime directly on your device. Fast Download speed and no annoying ads. We cannot guarantee that every ebooks is available!
| Author | : Cecilia Frale |
| Publisher | : |
| Total Pages | : 0 |
| Release | : 2012 |
| Genre | : |
| ISBN | : |
This paper deals with the topic of revision of data with the aim of investigating whether consecutive releases of macroeconomic series published by statistical agencies contain useful information for economic analysis and forecasting. The rationality of the re-visions process is tested considering the complete history of data and an empirical application to show the usefulness of revisions for improving the precision of forecasting model is proposed. The results for Italian GDP growth show that embedding the revision process in a dynamic factor model helps to reduce the forecast error.
| Author | : |
| Publisher | : |
| Total Pages | : |
| Release | : 2005 |
| Genre | : Economics |
| ISBN | : |
"Conventional VAR estimation and forecasting ignores the fact that economic data are often subject to revision many months or years after their initial release. This paper shows how VAR analysis can be modified to account for such revisions. The proposed approach assumes that government statistical releases are efficient with a finite lag. It takes no stand on whether earlier revisions are "noise" or "news." The technique is illustrated using data on employment and the unemployment rate, real GDP and the unemployment rate, and real GDP and the GDP/consumption ratio. In each case, the proposed procedure outperforms conventional VAR analysis and the more-restrictive methods for handling the data-revision problem that are found in the existing literature"--Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas web site.
| Author | : |
| Publisher | : |
| Total Pages | : 40 |
| Release | : 2013 |
| Genre | : |
| ISBN | : |
| Author | : Rob J Hyndman |
| Publisher | : OTexts |
| Total Pages | : 380 |
| Release | : 2018-05-08 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 0987507117 |
Forecasting is required in many situations. Stocking an inventory may require forecasts of demand months in advance. Telecommunication routing requires traffic forecasts a few minutes ahead. Whatever the circumstances or time horizons involved, forecasting is an important aid in effective and efficient planning. This textbook provides a comprehensive introduction to forecasting methods and presents enough information about each method for readers to use them sensibly.
| Author | : Eric Ghysels |
| Publisher | : |
| Total Pages | : 41 |
| Release | : 2014 |
| Genre | : |
| ISBN | : |
Macroeconomic data are typically subject to future revisions and released with delay. Predictive return regressions using such data therefore potentially overstate the information set available to investors in real time. We document that data revisions account for a sizable share of in-sample and out-of-sample predictive power for Treasury returns found in macroeconomic data. This is partly explained by the fact that information contained in revisions to prior months' releases is incorporated into bond prices. Survey forecasts available in real time contain information about future revised data that is orthogonal to the real-time data and also helps to predict bond returns.
| Author | : Eugene A. Imhoff |
| Publisher | : |
| Total Pages | : 40 |
| Release | : 1985 |
| Genre | : |
| ISBN | : |
| Author | : Eva Arnold |
| Publisher | : |
| Total Pages | : 0 |
| Release | : 2016 |
| Genre | : |
| ISBN | : |
This paper aims at evaluating individual expectation accuracy of professional forecasters for 57 U.S., European, and German macroeconomic indicators over the period 1999-2010. The empirical analysis shows that initial announcements are partly considerably revised, and that some revisions occur systematically. Taking into account whether announcements are revised systematically and whether economists (assumingly) aim at forecasting the initial release or the latest revision, significant differences can be observed with regard to forecasters' expectation errors. In general, forecasters that are (assumingly) aiming to predict the latest revisions of German indicators are able to form better forecasts if these indicators are revised systematically. Though to a lower extent, this relationship is also observable regarding U.S. indicators. Forecasters' disagreement about fundamentals is higher during recessions and when stock markets are volatile.
| Author | : Stefan Neuwirth |
| Publisher | : |
| Total Pages | : |
| Release | : 2017 |
| Genre | : |
| ISBN | : |
| Author | : Herman O. Stekler |
| Publisher | : |
| Total Pages | : 200 |
| Release | : 1970 |
| Genre | : Economic forecasting |
| ISBN | : |
| Author | : Carol S. Carson |
| Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
| Total Pages | : 42 |
| Release | : 2004-05 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : |
This paper proposes a set of good practices for the revision of macroeconomic data. The authors argue that revisions are a routine part of disseminating quality data. Revisions are made not just to correct errors but also to incorporate better source data, update base periods, and make other improvements. It is argued, using country examples and views from policymakers and other users, that national statistical agencies should have explicit revisions policies.
