Global Business Cycles

Global Business Cycles
Author: Mr.Ayhan Kose
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 51
Release: 2008-06-01
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1451870019

This paper analyzes the evolution of the degree of global cyclical interdependence over the period 1960-2005. We categorize the 106 countries in our sample into three groups-industrial countries, emerging markets, and other developing economies. Using a dynamic factor model, we then decompose macroeconomic fluctuations in key macroeconomic aggregates-output, consumption, and investment-into different factors. These are: (i) a global factor, which picks up fluctuations that are common across all variables and countries; (ii) three group-specific factors, which capture fluctuations that are common to all variables and all countries within each group of countries; (iii) country factors, which are common across all aggregates in a given country; and (iv) idiosyncratic factors specific to each time series. Our main result is that, during the period of globalization (1985-2005), there has been some convergence of business cycle fluctuations among the group of industrial economies and among the group of emerging market economies. Surprisingly, there has been a concomitant decline in the relative importance of the global factor. In other words, there is evidence of business cycle convergence within each of these two groups of countries but divergence (or decoupling) between them.

Business Cycle Synchronisation and Economic Integration

Business Cycle Synchronisation and Economic Integration
Author: Marcus Kappler
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Total Pages: 197
Release: 2012-07-30
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 3790828556

This book offers the reader a state-of-the-art overview on theory and empirics of business cycle synchronisation, structural reform and economic integration. Focusing on the ongoing integration process in the euro area and the EU, it analyses the integration process that has taken place since the 1980s and which is marked by the advent of the euro and the substantial enlargement that resulted from the accession of 12 new Member States in East and Southern Europe.

Trade Integration and Business Cycle Synchronization

Trade Integration and Business Cycle Synchronization
Author: Mr.Romain A Duval
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 46
Release: 2014-04-03
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1475523599

This paper reexamines the relationship between trade integration and business cycle synchronization (BCS) using new value-added trade data for 63 advanced and emerging economies during 1995–2012. In a panel framework, we identify a strong positive impact of trade intensity on BCS—conditional on various controls, global common shocks and country-pair heterogeneity—that is absent when gross trade data are used. That effect is bigger in crisis times, pointing to trade as an important crisis propagation mechanism. Bilateral intra-industry trade and trade specialization correlation also appear to increase co-movement, indicating that not only the intensity but also the type of trade matters. Finally, we show that dependence on Chinese final demand in value-added terms amplifies the international spillovers and synchronizing impact of growth shocks in China.

Business Cycles Syncronaziation in Europe

Business Cycles Syncronaziation in Europe
Author: Silvia Palasca
Publisher: GRIN Verlag
Total Pages: 15
Release: 2013-06-05
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 3656443033

Essay from the year 2013 in the subject Economics - Monetary theory and policy, Alexandru Ioan Cuza University of Iasi, language: English, abstract: The European Union sets the premises for the appearance of a new phenomenon in the global economic setting: the synchronization of the national business cycles. The aim of this article is to statistically prove the existence of a Euro are business cycle through the study of a classic indicator- the annual change of the GDP and also through the use of foreign trade indicators-the annual changes in exports in imports. Also, it is important, at the end, to choose the best of these indicators or a combination thereof to use as a benchmark for further studies. The empiric study is useful to classify the European countries in clusters according to synchronization, a first step in adopting common policies.

Business Cycle Synchronization

Business Cycle Synchronization
Author: Krzysztof Beck
Publisher:
Total Pages:
Release: 2014
Genre:
ISBN:

Turmoil in euro area once more forces EU authorities to rethink future of further monetary integration. One of the most commonly used criterions for successful monetary in contemporary research is business cycle synchronization (BCS). Though BCS has been vastly described at country level, not as much attention has been put on the degree of BSC at regional level. Topic is important for 2 main reasons. The first is that determining degree of BCS at regional level can help in assessment of monetary policy effectiveness at country level, as well as giving point of reference for evaluation of perspective costs of participation in monetary union. The second is that there is theoretical dispute within the optimum currency areas literature between 'European Commission' and "Krugman" view that can be resolve a great deal trough regional analysis. In order to assess BCS in EU Hodrick-Prescott, as well as Christiano and Fitzgerald filter to time series of real GDP for 24 countries, 82 NUTS 1, 242 NUTS 2 and 1264 NUTS 3 regions over the period of 1998-2010. Data was later used to create bilateral measures of BSC, which gave 276 observations on country level, 3321 on NUTS 1, 29161 on NUTS 2 and 798216 on NUTS 3 level. Results of the analysis support "European Commission" view and show very high degree of BSC within EU countries. Country level analysis also reveals that within the EU there exist group of countries that could form effectively working monetary union based on BCS criterion.

Economic Convergence in the Euro Area: Coming Together or Drifting Apart?

Economic Convergence in the Euro Area: Coming Together or Drifting Apart?
Author: Mr.Jeffrey R. Franks
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 47
Release: 2018-01-23
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1484338499

We examine economic convergence among euro area countries on multiple dimensions. While there was nominal convergence of inflation and interest rates, real convergence of per capita income levels has not occurred among the original euro area members since the advent of the common currency. Income convergence stagnated in the early years of the common currency and has reversed in the wake of the global economic crisis. New euro area members, in contrast, have seen real income convergence. Business cycles became more synchronized, but the amplitude of those cycles diverged. Financial cycles showed a similar pattern: sychronizing more over time, but with divergent amplitudes. Income convergence requires reforms boosting productivity growth in lagging countries, while cyclical and financial convergence can be enhanced by measures to improve national and euro area fiscal policies, together with steps to deepen the single market.

Optimal Currency Areas and the Euro, Volume I

Optimal Currency Areas and the Euro, Volume I
Author: Johannes Kabderian Dreyer
Publisher: Springer Nature
Total Pages: 129
Release: 2020-06-12
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 3030465152

This book analyses business cycles synchronization in the Euro Area (EA), one of the 3 criteria that define Optimal Currency Areas (OCAs). Even before its launch, economists questioned whether the EA has what it takes to become an OCA. The onset of the sovereign debt crisis in 2010 confirmed the challenges relating to its construction. But did the EA change over time, and what key drivers may be necessary in the future to strengthen the common currency?