Regional Business Cycle Synchronization In Europe
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Author | : Mr.Ayhan Kose |
Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
Total Pages | : 51 |
Release | : 2008-06-01 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 1451870019 |
This paper analyzes the evolution of the degree of global cyclical interdependence over the period 1960-2005. We categorize the 106 countries in our sample into three groups-industrial countries, emerging markets, and other developing economies. Using a dynamic factor model, we then decompose macroeconomic fluctuations in key macroeconomic aggregates-output, consumption, and investment-into different factors. These are: (i) a global factor, which picks up fluctuations that are common across all variables and countries; (ii) three group-specific factors, which capture fluctuations that are common to all variables and all countries within each group of countries; (iii) country factors, which are common across all aggregates in a given country; and (iv) idiosyncratic factors specific to each time series. Our main result is that, during the period of globalization (1985-2005), there has been some convergence of business cycle fluctuations among the group of industrial economies and among the group of emerging market economies. Surprisingly, there has been a concomitant decline in the relative importance of the global factor. In other words, there is evidence of business cycle convergence within each of these two groups of countries but divergence (or decoupling) between them.
Author | : |
Publisher | : |
Total Pages | : 24 |
Release | : 2007 |
Genre | : |
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Author | : Marcus Kappler |
Publisher | : Springer Science & Business Media |
Total Pages | : 197 |
Release | : 2012-07-30 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 3790828556 |
This book offers the reader a state-of-the-art overview on theory and empirics of business cycle synchronisation, structural reform and economic integration. Focusing on the ongoing integration process in the euro area and the EU, it analyses the integration process that has taken place since the 1980s and which is marked by the advent of the euro and the substantial enlargement that resulted from the accession of 12 new Member States in East and Southern Europe.
Author | : Mr.Romain A Duval |
Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
Total Pages | : 46 |
Release | : 2014-04-03 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 1475523599 |
This paper reexamines the relationship between trade integration and business cycle synchronization (BCS) using new value-added trade data for 63 advanced and emerging economies during 1995–2012. In a panel framework, we identify a strong positive impact of trade intensity on BCS—conditional on various controls, global common shocks and country-pair heterogeneity—that is absent when gross trade data are used. That effect is bigger in crisis times, pointing to trade as an important crisis propagation mechanism. Bilateral intra-industry trade and trade specialization correlation also appear to increase co-movement, indicating that not only the intensity but also the type of trade matters. Finally, we show that dependence on Chinese final demand in value-added terms amplifies the international spillovers and synchronizing impact of growth shocks in China.
Author | : Silvia Palasca |
Publisher | : GRIN Verlag |
Total Pages | : 15 |
Release | : 2013-06-05 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 3656443033 |
Essay from the year 2013 in the subject Economics - Monetary theory and policy, Alexandru Ioan Cuza University of Iasi, language: English, abstract: The European Union sets the premises for the appearance of a new phenomenon in the global economic setting: the synchronization of the national business cycles. The aim of this article is to statistically prove the existence of a Euro are business cycle through the study of a classic indicator- the annual change of the GDP and also through the use of foreign trade indicators-the annual changes in exports in imports. Also, it is important, at the end, to choose the best of these indicators or a combination thereof to use as a benchmark for further studies. The empiric study is useful to classify the European countries in clusters according to synchronization, a first step in adopting common policies.
Author | : Krzysztof Beck |
Publisher | : |
Total Pages | : |
Release | : 2014 |
Genre | : |
ISBN | : |
Turmoil in euro area once more forces EU authorities to rethink future of further monetary integration. One of the most commonly used criterions for successful monetary in contemporary research is business cycle synchronization (BCS). Though BCS has been vastly described at country level, not as much attention has been put on the degree of BSC at regional level. Topic is important for 2 main reasons. The first is that determining degree of BCS at regional level can help in assessment of monetary policy effectiveness at country level, as well as giving point of reference for evaluation of perspective costs of participation in monetary union. The second is that there is theoretical dispute within the optimum currency areas literature between 'European Commission' and "Krugman" view that can be resolve a great deal trough regional analysis. In order to assess BCS in EU Hodrick-Prescott, as well as Christiano and Fitzgerald filter to time series of real GDP for 24 countries, 82 NUTS 1, 242 NUTS 2 and 1264 NUTS 3 regions over the period of 1998-2010. Data was later used to create bilateral measures of BSC, which gave 276 observations on country level, 3321 on NUTS 1, 29161 on NUTS 2 and 798216 on NUTS 3 level. Results of the analysis support "European Commission" view and show very high degree of BSC within EU countries. Country level analysis also reveals that within the EU there exist group of countries that could form effectively working monetary union based on BCS criterion.
Author | : Mr.Jeffrey R. Franks |
Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
Total Pages | : 47 |
Release | : 2018-01-23 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 1484338499 |
We examine economic convergence among euro area countries on multiple dimensions. While there was nominal convergence of inflation and interest rates, real convergence of per capita income levels has not occurred among the original euro area members since the advent of the common currency. Income convergence stagnated in the early years of the common currency and has reversed in the wake of the global economic crisis. New euro area members, in contrast, have seen real income convergence. Business cycles became more synchronized, but the amplitude of those cycles diverged. Financial cycles showed a similar pattern: sychronizing more over time, but with divergent amplitudes. Income convergence requires reforms boosting productivity growth in lagging countries, while cyclical and financial convergence can be enhanced by measures to improve national and euro area fiscal policies, together with steps to deepen the single market.
Author | : Kwan-ho Sin |
Publisher | : |
Total Pages | : 32 |
Release | : 2003 |
Genre | : Business cycles |
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Author | : Sŏng-hyŏn Kim |
Publisher | : |
Total Pages | : 21 |
Release | : 2014 |
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Author | : Johannes Kabderian Dreyer |
Publisher | : Springer Nature |
Total Pages | : 129 |
Release | : 2020-06-12 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 3030465152 |
This book analyses business cycles synchronization in the Euro Area (EA), one of the 3 criteria that define Optimal Currency Areas (OCAs). Even before its launch, economists questioned whether the EA has what it takes to become an OCA. The onset of the sovereign debt crisis in 2010 confirmed the challenges relating to its construction. But did the EA change over time, and what key drivers may be necessary in the future to strengthen the common currency?