Real-World Decision Making

Real-World Decision Making
Author: Morris Altman
Publisher: Bloomsbury Publishing USA
Total Pages: 690
Release: 2015-06-23
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN:

The first and only encyclopedia to focus on the economic and financial behaviors of consumers, investors, and organizations, including an exploration of how people make good—and bad—economic decisions. Traditional economic theories speculate how and when people should spend money. But consumers don't always behave as expected and often adopt strategies that might appear unorthodox yet are, at times, more effective than the rule prescribed by conventional wisdom. This groundbreaking text examines the ways in which people make financial decisions, whether it is because they are smart but atypical in their choices ... or just irrational decision makers. A leading authority on behavioral economics, Morris Altman and more than 150 expert contributors delve into key concepts in behavioral economics, economic psychology, behavioral finance, neuroeconomics, experimental economics, and institutional economics to help inform economic models based on reality, not theory. Through 250 informative entries, the book explores various aspects of the subject including decision making, economic analysis, and public policy. In addition to introducing concepts to readers new to the subject, the book sheds light on more advanced financial topics in a manner that is objective, comprehensive, and accessible.

Simply Rational

Simply Rational
Author: Gerd Gigerenzer
Publisher: Evolution and Cognition
Total Pages: 329
Release: 2015
Genre: Psychology
ISBN: 019939007X

Statistical illiteracy can have an enormously negative impact on decision making. This volume of collected papers brings together applied and theoretical research on risks and decision making across the fields of medicine, psychology, and economics. Collectively, the essays demonstrate why the frame in which statistics are communicated is essential for broader understanding and sound decision making, and that understanding risks and uncertainty has wide-reaching implications for daily life. Gerd Gigerenzer provides a lucid review and catalog of concrete instances of heuristics, or rules of thumb, that people and animals rely on to make decisions under uncertainty, explaining why these are very often more rational than probability models. After a critical look at behavioral theories that do not model actual psychological processes, the book concludes with a call for a heuristic revolution that will enable us to understand the ecological rationality of both statistics and heuristics, and bring a dose of sanity to the study of rationality.

Real-World Decision Modeling with DMN

Real-World Decision Modeling with DMN
Author: James Taylor
Publisher: Jtonedm
Total Pages: 0
Release: 2023-07-24
Genre:
ISBN:

Organizations make thousands of automated, operational decisions every week. How well they make these decisions drives profitability, reputation and customer satisfaction. Decision modeling helps them understand, automate and improve them

The Power of Experiments

The Power of Experiments
Author: Michael Luca
Publisher: MIT Press
Total Pages: 229
Release: 2021-03-02
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 0262542277

How tech companies like Google, Airbnb, StubHub, and Facebook learn from experiments in our data-driven world—an excellent primer on experimental and behavioral economics Have you logged into Facebook recently? Searched for something on Google? Chosen a movie on Netflix? If so, you've probably been an unwitting participant in a variety of experiments—also known as randomized controlled trials—designed to test the impact of different online experiences. Once an esoteric tool for academic research, the randomized controlled trial has gone mainstream. No tech company worth its salt (or its share price) would dare make major changes to its platform without first running experiments to understand how they would influence user behavior. In this book, Michael Luca and Max Bazerman explain the importance of experiments for decision making in a data-driven world. Luca and Bazerman describe the central role experiments play in the tech sector, drawing lessons and best practices from the experiences of such companies as StubHub, Alibaba, and Uber. Successful experiments can save companies money—eBay, for example, discovered how to cut $50 million from its yearly advertising budget—or bring to light something previously ignored, as when Airbnb was forced to confront rampant discrimination by its hosts. Moving beyond tech, Luca and Bazerman consider experimenting for the social good—different ways that governments are using experiments to influence or “nudge” behavior ranging from voter apathy to school absenteeism. Experiments, they argue, are part of any leader's toolkit. With this book, readers can become part of “the experimental revolution.”

Real-world Data Mining

Real-world Data Mining
Author: Dursun Delen
Publisher: Pearson Education
Total Pages: 289
Release: 2015
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 0133551075

As business becomes increasingly complex and global, decision-makers must act more rapidly and accurately, based on the best available evidence. Modern data mining and analytics is indispensable for doing this. Real-World Data Mining demystifies current best practices, showing how to use data mining and analytics to uncover hidden patterns and correlations, and leverage these to improve all business decision-making. Drawing on extensive experience as a researcher, practitioner, and instructor, Dr. Dursun Delen delivers an optimal balance of concepts, techniques and applications. Without compromising either simplicity or clarity, Delen provides enough technical depth to help readers truly understand how data mining technologies work. Coverage includes: data mining processes, methods, and techniques; the role and management of data; tools and metrics; text and web mining; sentiment analysis; and integration with cutting-edge Big Data approaches. Throughout, Delen's conceptual coverage is complemented with application case studies (examples of both successes and failures), as well as simple, hands-on tutorials.

Handbook on Decision Making

Handbook on Decision Making
Author: Chee Peng Lim
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Total Pages: 539
Release: 2010-09-07
Genre: Technology & Engineering
ISBN: 3642136397

Decision making arises when we wish to select the best possible course of action from a set of alternatives. With advancements of the digital technologies, it is easy, and almost instantaneous, to gather a large volume of information and/or data pertaining to a problem that we want to solve. For instance, the world-wi- web is perhaps the primary source of information and/or data that we often turn to when we face a decision making problem. However, the information and/or data that we obtain from the real world often are complex, and comprise various kinds of noise. Besides, real-world information and/or data often are incomplete and ambiguous, owing to uncertainties of the environments. All these make decision making a challenging task. To cope with the challenges of decision making, - searchers have designed and developed a variety of decision support systems to provide assistance in human decision making processes. The main aim of this book is to provide a small collection of techniques stemmed from artificial intelligence, as well as other complementary methodo- gies, that are useful for the design and development of intelligent decision support systems. Application examples of how these intelligent decision support systems can be utilized to help tackle a variety of real-world problems in different - mains, e. g. business, management, manufacturing, transportation and food ind- tries, and biomedicine, are also presented. A total of twenty chapters, which can be broadly divided into two parts, i. e.

Smart Economic Decision-Making in a Complex World

Smart Economic Decision-Making in a Complex World
Author: Morris Altman
Publisher: Academic Press
Total Pages: 302
Release: 2020-05-22
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 0128131780

Smart Economic Decision-Making in a Complex World is a fresh and reality-based perspective on decision-making with significant implications for analysis, self-understanding and policy. The book examines the conditions under which smart people generate outcomes that improve their place of work, their household and society. Within this work, the curious reader will find interesting open questions on many fascinating areas of current economic debate, including, the role of realistic assumptions robust model building, understanding how and when non-neoclassical behavior is best practice, why the assumption of smart decision-makers is best to understand and explain our economies and societies, and under what conditions individuals can make the best possible choices for themselves and society at large. Additional sections cover when and how efficiency is achieved, why inefficiencies can persist, when and how consumer welfare is maximized, and what benchmarks should be used to determine efficiency and rationality. Makes the case for ‘smart and rational’ decision-making as a context-dependent rational process that is framed by socio-cultural environment and conditioned by institutional capacities Explains how incorporation of the ‘smart’ decision-maker concept into economic thought improves our understanding of how, why and when people generate certain outcomes Explores how economic efficiency can be achieved, individual preferences realized, and social welfare maximized through the use of ‘smart and rational’ approaches

The Decision Model

The Decision Model
Author: Barbara von Halle
Publisher: CRC Press
Total Pages: 556
Release: 2009-10-27
Genre: Computers
ISBN: 1420082825

In the current fast-paced and constantly changing business environment, it is more important than ever for organizations to be agile, monitor business performance, and meet with increasingly stringent compliance requirements. Written by pioneering consultants and bestselling authors with track records of international success, The Decision Model: A

Real-Life Decision-Making

Real-Life Decision-Making
Author: Mats Danielson
Publisher: CRC Press
Total Pages: 141
Release: 2023-08-08
Genre: Education
ISBN: 1000936899

Have you ever experienced a decision situation that was hard to come to grips with? Did you ever feel a need to improve your decision-making skills? Is this something where you feel that you have not learned enough practical and useful methods? In that case, you are not alone! Even though decision-making is both considered and actually is a very important skill in modern work-life as well as in private life, these skills are not to any reasonable extent taught in schools at any level. No wonder many people do indeed feel the need to improve but have a hard time finding out how. This book is an attempt to remedy this shortcoming of our educational systems and possibly also of our common, partly intuition-based, decision culture. Intuition is not at all bad, quite the contrary, but it has to co-exist with rationality. We will show you how. Methods for decision-making should be of prime concern to any individual or organisation, even if the decision processes are not always explicitly or even consciously formulated. All kinds of organisations, as well as individuals, must continuously make decisions of the most varied nature in order to prosper and attain their objectives. A large part of the time spent in any organisation, not least at management levels, is spent gathering, processing, and compiling information for the purpose of making decisions supported by that information. The same interest has hitherto not been shown for individual decision-making, even though large gains would also be obtained at a personal level if important personal decisions were better deliberated. This book aims at changing that and thus attends to both categories of decision-makers. This book will take you through a journey starting with some history of decision-making and analysis and then go through easy-to-learn ways of structuring decision information and methods for analysing the decision situations, beginning with simple decision situations and then moving on to progressively harder ones, but never losing sight of the overarching goal that the reader should be able to follow the progression and being able to carry out similar decision analyses in real-life situations. The Open Access version of this book, available at www.taylorfrancis.com, has been made available under a Creative Commons Attribution-Non Commercial-No Derivatives 4.0 license.

Disasters and Dilemmas

Disasters and Dilemmas
Author: Adam Morton
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
Total Pages: 226
Release: 2017-09-27
Genre: Philosophy
ISBN: 1119468124

The author presents a number of strategies for making decisions based on desires or values which are incompatible or which conflict with one another in various ways. Cases discussed include conflicts of first and second order desires, conflicts between desires for present and for future ends, problems deriving from anticipated changes of desire, risk-taking problems, and coordination problems. One central claim of the book is that the same dilemma-managing strategies can be applied to all of these. The book also argues that many of the characteristics of moral dilemmas appear in non-moral decision-making. The relations between these strategies and utility-maximizing decision rules are subtle, and are explored throughout the book. To some extent the strategies apply to cases which are too complicated for utility-maximization to apply. Some of them also apply to the early stages of decision-making where utility-maximization does not enter, for example, in selecting a list of options for serious consideration. In some tidy cases, though, the strategies give different recommendations. This book is meant to have both a theoretical and a practical appeal, deriving from our need for ways of making decisions that do not force us to find trade-offs between goods or values which are hard to compare. The strategies presented in the book are meant to be usable in situations which seem to force decision-makers to balance very different quantities, and the discussion of them is meant as a contribution to debates about incomparable values, moral dilemmas and rational decision.