Real Sectoral Spillovers: A Dynamic Factor Analysis of the Great Recession

Real Sectoral Spillovers: A Dynamic Factor Analysis of the Great Recession
Author: MissNan Li
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 52
Release: 2018-05-09
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1484355717

This paper studies changes in the transmission of common versus sectoral idiosyncratic shocks across different U.S. nonfarm business sectors during the Great Recession, and evaluates the cross-sectoral spillovers. Shocks are identified by dynamic factor methods. We find that the Great Recession is largely a time of heightened impact of common shocks— which accounts for 3/4 of aggregate volatility—and large spillovers of negative financerelated shocks. Moreover, in contrast with the earlier literature that failed to find a significant role of sectoral shocks (propagated through the input-output linkages across sectors) in driving variability in aggregate industry output, this study allows spillovers of shocks to operate through other mechanisms intertemporally. We find that prior to the recession the majority of aggregate fluctuations is explained by sector-specific shocks.

License to Spill: How Do We Discuss Spillovers in Article IV Staff Reports

License to Spill: How Do We Discuss Spillovers in Article IV Staff Reports
Author: Jelle Barkema
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 25
Release: 2021-05-07
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1513573675

This paper dives into the Fund’s historical coverage of cross-border spillovers in its surveillance. We use a state-of-the-art deep learning model to analyze the discussion of spillovers in all IMF Article IV staff reports between 2010 and 2019. We find that overall, while the discussion of spillovers decreased over time, it was pronounced in the staff reports of some systemically important economies and during periods of global spillover events. Spillover discussions were more prominent in staff reports covering advanced and emerging market economies, possibly reflecting their role as sources of global spillovers. The coverage of spillovers was higher in the context of the real, financial, and external sectors. Also, countries with larger economies, higher trade and capital account openess and lower inflation are more likely to discuss spillovers in their Article IV staff reports.

Productivity, Innovation and Economic Performance

Productivity, Innovation and Economic Performance
Author: Ray Barrell
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Total Pages: 316
Release: 2000-06-15
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 9780521780315

The book compares and explains differences in levels of incomes among industrialised countries.

Financial and Macroeconomic Connectedness

Financial and Macroeconomic Connectedness
Author: Francis X. Diebold
Publisher: Oxford University Press
Total Pages: 285
Release: 2015-02-03
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 0199338310

Connections among different assets, asset classes, portfolios, and the stocks of individual institutions are critical in examining financial markets. Interest in financial markets implies interest in underlying macroeconomic fundamentals. In Financial and Macroeconomic Connectedness, Frank Diebold and Kamil Yilmaz propose a simple framework for defining, measuring, and monitoring connectedness, which is central to finance and macroeconomics. These measures of connectedness are theoretically rigorous yet empirically relevant. The approach to connectedness proposed by the authors is intimately related to the familiar econometric notion of variance decomposition. The full set of variance decompositions from vector auto-regressions produces the core of the 'connectedness table.' The connectedness table makes clear how one can begin with the most disaggregated pair-wise directional connectedness measures and aggregate them in various ways to obtain total connectedness measures. The authors also show that variance decompositions define weighted, directed networks, so that these proposed connectedness measures are intimately related to key measures of connectedness used in the network literature. After describing their methods in the first part of the book, the authors proceed to characterize daily return and volatility connectedness across major asset (stock, bond, foreign exchange and commodity) markets as well as the financial institutions within the U.S. and across countries since late 1990s. These specific measures of volatility connectedness show that stock markets played a critical role in spreading the volatility shocks from the U.S. to other countries. Furthermore, while the return connectedness across stock markets increased gradually over time the volatility connectedness measures were subject to significant jumps during major crisis events. This book examines not only financial connectedness, but also real fundamental connectedness. In particular, the authors show that global business cycle connectedness is economically significant and time-varying, that the U.S. has disproportionately high connectedness to others, and that pairwise country connectedness is inversely related to bilateral trade surpluses.

Making Foreign Direct Investment Work for Sub-Saharan Africa

Making Foreign Direct Investment Work for Sub-Saharan Africa
Author: Thomas Farole
Publisher: World Bank Publications
Total Pages: 302
Release: 2014-01-13
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1464801266

This book presents the results of a groundbreaking study on ‘spillovers’ of knowledge and technology from global value-chain oriented foreign direct investment (FDI) in Sub-Saharan Africa, and discusses implications for policymakers hoping to harness the power of FDI for economic development.

Real Sectoral Spillovers: A Dynamic Factor Analysis of the Great Recession

Real Sectoral Spillovers: A Dynamic Factor Analysis of the Great Recession
Author: MissNan Li
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 52
Release: 2018-05-09
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1484354583

This paper studies changes in the transmission of common versus sectoral idiosyncratic shocks across different U.S. nonfarm business sectors during the Great Recession, and evaluates the cross-sectoral spillovers. Shocks are identified by dynamic factor methods. We find that the Great Recession is largely a time of heightened impact of common shocks— which accounts for 3/4 of aggregate volatility—and large spillovers of negative financerelated shocks. Moreover, in contrast with the earlier literature that failed to find a significant role of sectoral shocks (propagated through the input-output linkages across sectors) in driving variability in aggregate industry output, this study allows spillovers of shocks to operate through other mechanisms intertemporally. We find that prior to the recession the majority of aggregate fluctuations is explained by sector-specific shocks.

Sectoral Shocks and Spillovers: An Application to COVID-19

Sectoral Shocks and Spillovers: An Application to COVID-19
Author: Mr. Sonali Das
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 26
Release: 2021-07-30
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1513587390

This paper examines the role of sectoral spillovers in propagating sectoral shocks in the broader economy, both in the past and during the COVID-19 pandemic. In particular, we study how shocks that occur within a sector itself and spillovers from shocks to other sectors affect sectoral activity, for a large sample of countries from 1995 to 2014. We find that both supply and demand shocks—measured as changes in, respectively, productivity and government purchases at the sector level—have large spillover effects on sector-level gross value added and on a sector’s share of the economy. We then use these historical estimates, together with the network structure of global production, to quantify the spillovers from the economic shock associated with the pandemic. We find spillover effects to be sizeable, making up a significant fraction of the overall decline in activity in 2020.Our results have implications for the design of policies with a sectoral dimension.

Knowledge Spillovers From Superstar Tech-Firms: The Case of Nokia

Knowledge Spillovers From Superstar Tech-Firms: The Case of Nokia
Author: Jyrki Ali-Yrkkö
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 30
Release: 2021-10-29
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1589065298

Do workers hired from superstar tech-firms contribute to better firm performance? To address this question, we analyze the effects of tacit knowledge spillovers from Nokia in the context of a quasi-natural experiment in Finland, the closure of Nokia’s mobile device division in 2014 and the massive labor movement it implied. We apply a two-stage difference-in-differences approach with heterogeneous treatment to estimate the causal effects of hiring former Nokia employees. Our results provide new evidence supporting the positive causal role of former Nokia workers on firm performance. The evidence of the positive spillovers on firms is particularly strong in terms of employment and value added.

Endogenous Innovations and Knowledge Spillovers

Endogenous Innovations and Knowledge Spillovers
Author: Werner Smolny
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Total Pages: 283
Release: 2012-12-06
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 3642576966

The recent development of endogenous growth theories has renewed the in terest into the sources of productivity growth of the advanced industrialized economies. The basic advance of these models is that the evolution of tech nological progress is explained endogeneously within the economic model. The most important concept is the idea of endogenous, market-driven inno vations which are seen as the basic source of technological advances. Firms develop sophisticated production techniques and new products in order to reduce costs or to stimulate demand. Equally important is the concept of knowledge spillovers from innovation activities and scale economies associ ated with them. External effects drive a wedge between private and social re turns of innovation activities, and scale economies affect the market structure. In addition, each year's productivity increases exhibit an enormous social value. Therefore, the analysis of endogenous innovations, scale economies, and knowledge spillovers has important implications for economic policy which enhances the interest into empirical investigations of these issues. This book is a collection of theoretical and empirical work on this subject. It combines micro economic and macroeconomic issues; a special emphasis is placed on empirical applications. Much work has been devoted to the search and the preparation of appropriate data, and all models are estimated with panel data. The first two chapters take an aggregate view at the growth process.