Public Debt Consolidation And Its Distributional Effects
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| Author | : Petros Varthalitis |
| Publisher | : |
| Total Pages | : |
| Release | : 2019 |
| Genre | : |
| ISBN | : |
We build a dynamic general equilibrium model with heterogeneous households, namely Rich and Poor, and capital skill complementarity structure in the production function, to study aggregate and distributional implications of fiscal consolidation policies when the government uses a rich set of spending and tax instruments. Fiscal policy is conducted through constrained optimized fiscal rules. Our results show that, in the long run, fiscal consolidation enhances both aggregate efficiency and equity; however, it may hurt Rich households depending on which fiscal instrument takes advantage of the fiscal space created. Along the transition, wage inequality significantly increases due to the capital skill complementarity structure of the production function. Specifically, this happens because debt consolidation crowds in capital and this favours Rich (skilled) households. On the other hand, the reduction in interest rates and government bonds lead to a decrease in Rich households income coming from capital and government bonds which eventually decrease income inequality. Finally, a rather novel finding is that the combination of asset and skill heterogeneity amplifies the increase in wage inequality in the early phase of fiscal consolidation.
| Author | : Laurence M. Ball |
| Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
| Total Pages | : 24 |
| Release | : 2013-06-21 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 1475551940 |
This paper examines the distributional effects of fiscal consolidation. Using episodes of fiscal consolidation for a sample of 17 OECD countries over the period 1978–2009, we find that fiscal consolidation has typically had significant distributional effects by raising inequality, decreasing wage income shares and increasing long-term unemployment. The evidence also suggests that spending-based adjustments have had, on average, larger distributional effects than tax-based adjustments.
| Author | : Svend E. Hougaard Jensen |
| Publisher | : |
| Total Pages | : 0 |
| Release | : 2003 |
| Genre | : |
| ISBN | : |
If public goods and transfers are relatively more valuable to the poor, the elderly poor stand to lose from public debt reduction achieved through spending cuts. When long-term surpluses produced by debt reduction are recycled into higher provision of public goods and transfers, future generations of poor could gain. If future surpluses are recycled through lower labour taxes, working households in the future would be positively affected. The impact of debt reduction on vertical equity is ambiguous, yet inter- rather than intragenerational equity is likely to pose the greatest obstacle to fiscal consolidation. Based on majority voting by self-interested households, debt reduction is unlikely to occur.
| Author | : Jaejoon Woo |
| Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
| Total Pages | : 37 |
| Release | : 2013-09-17 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 1484390911 |
The 2007-09 Great Recession has led to an unprecedented increase in public debt in many countries, triggering substantial fiscal adjustments. What are the distributional consequences of fiscal austerity measures? This is an important policy question. This paper analyzes the effects of fiscal policies on income inequality in a panel of advanced and emerging market economies over the last three decades, complemented by a case study of selected consolidation episodes. The paper shows that fiscal consolidations are likely to raise inequality through various channels including their effects on unemployment. Spending-based consolidations tend to worsen inequality more significantly, relative to tax-based consolidations. The composition of austerity measures also matters: progressive taxation and targeted social benefits and subsidies introduced in the context of a broader decline in spending can help offset some of the adverse distributional impact of consolidation. In addition, fiscal policy can favorably influence long-term trends in both inequality and growth by promoting education and training among low- and middle-income workers.
| Author | : Roberta Cardani |
| Publisher | : |
| Total Pages | : 26 |
| Release | : 2016 |
| Genre | : |
| ISBN | : |
In this paper, we adopt a Ramsey-optimal approach to the identification of debt reduction strategies, that is, the optimal policy mix for labor and capital income taxes, public expenditures and inflation designed to achieve an exogenous debt reduction path. Our model accounts for monopoly profits, limited asset market participation and asset holders' infrequent optimization of their portfolio composition between money holdings and other financial assets. The optimal policy envisages persistent reductions in public consumption and increases in taxes and inflation. Distributional conflicts arise between asset owners and the rest of the population. When asset holders interests are relatively less important in the planner's objective function, labor income taxes are drastically reduced whereas capital income taxes and inflation are increased. Just in this case the consolidation has short term expansionary effects.
| Author | : Laurence M. Ball |
| Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
| Total Pages | : 24 |
| Release | : 2013-06-21 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 1475567200 |
This paper examines the distributional effects of fiscal consolidation. Using episodes of fiscal consolidation for a sample of 17 OECD countries over the period 1978–2009, we find that fiscal consolidation has typically had significant distributional effects by raising inequality, decreasing wage income shares and increasing long-term unemployment. The evidence also suggests that spending-based adjustments have had, on average, larger distributional effects than tax-based adjustments.
| Author | : Mr.Barry J. Eichengreen |
| Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
| Total Pages | : 60 |
| Release | : 2019-01-15 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 1484392892 |
We consider public debt from a long-term historical perspective, showing how the purposes for which governments borrow have evolved over time. Periods when debt-to-GDP ratios rose explosively as a result of wars, depressions and financial crises also have a long history. Many of these episodes resulted in debt-management problems resolved through debasements and restructurings. Less widely appreciated are successful debt consolidation episodes, instances in which governments inheriting heavy debts ran primary surpluses for long periods in order to reduce those burdens to sustainable levels. We analyze the economic and political circumstances that made these successful debt consolidation episodes possible.
| Author | : M. Ayhan Kose |
| Publisher | : World Bank Publications |
| Total Pages | : 403 |
| Release | : 2021-03-03 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 1464815453 |
The global economy has experienced four waves of rapid debt accumulation over the past 50 years. The first three debt waves ended with financial crises in many emerging market and developing economies. During the current wave, which started in 2010, the increase in debt in these economies has already been larger, faster, and broader-based than in the previous three waves. Current low interest rates mitigate some of the risks associated with high debt. However, emerging market and developing economies are also confronted by weak growth prospects, mounting vulnerabilities, and elevated global risks. A menu of policy options is available to reduce the likelihood that the current debt wave will end in crisis and, if crises do take place, will alleviate their impact.
| Author | : International Monetary Fund |
| Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
| Total Pages | : 39 |
| Release | : 2003-09-12 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 149832892X |
| Author | : Davide Furceri |
| Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
| Total Pages | : 39 |
| Release | : 2018-03-14 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 1484347978 |
We construct unanticipated government spending shocks for 103 developing countries from 1990 to 2015 and study their effects on income distribution. We find that unanticipated fiscal consolidations lead to a long-lasting increase in income inequality, while fiscal expansions lower inequality. The results are robust to several measures of income distribution and size of the fiscal shocks, to an alternative identification strategy, across expansions and recessions and across country groups (low-income countries versus emerging markets). An additional contribution of the paper is the computation of the medium-term inequality multiplier. This is on average about 1 in our sample, meaning that a cumulative decrease in government spending of 1 percent of GDP over 5 years is associated with a cumulative increase in the Gini coefficient over the same period of about 1 percentage point. The multiplier is larger for total government expenditure than for public investment and consumption (with the former having larger effect), likely due to the redistributive role of transfers. Finally, we find that (unanticipated) fiscal consolidations lead to an increase in poverty.
