Presidential Upsets
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Author | : Douglas J. Clouatre |
Publisher | : Bloomsbury Publishing USA |
Total Pages | : 401 |
Release | : 2013-01-09 |
Genre | : Political Science |
ISBN | : 1440828679 |
This unique book examines election upsets in American presidential campaigns, offers in-depth analysis of several surprising election results, and explains why the front-running candidate lost. Controversial and unexpected presidential election results have occurred throughout American history. Presidential Upsets: Dark Horses, Underdogs, and Corrupt Bargains carefully examines eleven presidential upsets spread across two centuries of American history, ranking these election upsets by order of magnitude and allowing readers to compare the issues and processes of American elections. After an introductory chapter that establishes the factors that contribute to a presidential upset, such as the comparative advantages of candidates, the issues facing the candidates and electorate, and the political environment during the election, the book offers in-depth analysis of notable surprise election results and explains why the front-running candidate lost. Each major period of American history—such as the Jacksonian period, the Antebellum era, Reconstruction, World War I, the Cold War era, and the post-Cold War era—is covered. The author utilizes primary and secondary sources of material to provide contemporary and historical analysis of these elections, and bases his analysis upon criteria used by political scientists to predict presidential election results.
Author | : W. Joseph Campbell |
Publisher | : Univ of California Press |
Total Pages | : 365 |
Release | : 2020-08-25 |
Genre | : Political Science |
ISBN | : 0520972139 |
A sweeping look at the messy and contentious past of US presidential pre-election polls and why they aren’t as reliable as we think. Polls in U.S. presidential elections can and do get it wrong—as surprising outcomes in 2020, in 2016, in 2012, in 2004, in 2000 all remind us. Lost in a Gallup captures in lively and unprecedented fashion the stories of polling flops, epic upsets, unforeseen landslides, and exit poll fiascoes in presidential elections since 1936. Polling’s checkered record in elections has rarely been considered in detail and, until now, has never been addressed collectively. Polling embarrassments are not all alike. Pollsters have anticipated tight elections when landslides occurred; they have indicated the wrong winner in closer elections; state polls have confounded expected national outcomes. Exit polling has thrown Election Day into confusion. The work of venerable pollsters has been singularly and memorably in error. It is a rare presidential election not to be marred by polling controversies. Lost in a Gallup casts a critical eye on major figures in election polling such as George Gallup, a prickly founding father of public opinion research. The book also considers the polling innovations of Warren Mitofsky, whose admonition rings true across generations: “There’s a lot of room for humility in polling. Every time you get cocky, you lose.” Lost in a Gallup examines how polling failure often equates to journalistic failure. Historically, poll-bashing was quite pronounced among prominent journalists, including well-known newspaper columnists such as Mike Royko in Chicago and Jimmy Breslin in New York. They and other journalists challenged the presumption that polls could accurately measure or interpret what the public was thinking. Even so, polls drive news media narratives about presidential elections, shaping conventional wisdom about how competitive those races are. As Lost in a Gallup makes clear, polls are not always in error. But when they fail, they can fail in surprising ways.
Author | : Larry Sabato |
Publisher | : Rowman & Littlefield |
Total Pages | : 268 |
Release | : 2017-03-21 |
Genre | : Political Science |
ISBN | : 1442279400 |
In 2016, Donald Trump broke almost all the rules of politics to win the Republican nomination and, even more improbably, to edge out heavily favored Hillary Clinton in one of the great upsets in presidential campaign history. In Trumped: The 2016 Election That Broke All the Rules, Larry Sabato, Kyle Kondik, and Geoffrey Skelley, leading experts in American politics, bring together respected journalists, analysts, and scholars to examine every facet of the stunning 2016 election and what its improbable outcome will mean for the nation moving forward under a Trump administration. In frank, accessible prose, each author offers insight that goes beyond the headlines and dives into the underlying forces and shifts that drove the election from its earliest developments to its dramatic conclusion as one of the greatest upsets in presidential campaign history. Trumped will be an indispensable read for political junkies and all students of American politics. Contributions by Alan Abramowitz, Matt Barreto, David Byler, Anthony Cilluffo, Rhodes Cook, Robert Costa, Ariel Edwards-Levy, Natalie Jackson, Kyle Kondik, Susan MacManus, Diana Owen, Ron Rapoport, Larry Sabato, Greg Sargent, Tom Schaller, Gary Segura, Geoffrey Skelley, Walter Stone, Michael Toner, Karen Trainer, Sean Trende, and Janie Valencia.
Author | : Jeff Berman |
Publisher | : |
Total Pages | : 0 |
Release | : 2012-01-03 |
Genre | : Campaign management |
ISBN | : 9780984934010 |
This is the inside story of Barack Obama's historic quest for the 2008 presidential delegate majority from the unique vantage point of Jeff Berman, Obama's national delegate director. Called Obama's secret weapon, Berman led the effort to devise and execute the delegate plan that Obama used to capture the presidential nomination. Learn how the 2008 fight for delegates produced one of the greatest presidential upsets of all time.
Author | : Stefan Lorant |
Publisher | : Authors Edition Incorporated |
Total Pages | : 1114 |
Release | : 1976 |
Genre | : Biography & Autobiography |
ISBN | : |
Author | : Olin "Sam." McCulley |
Publisher | : |
Total Pages | : 424 |
Release | : 1951 |
Genre | : Presidents |
ISBN | : |
Author | : Harry S. Truman |
Publisher | : University of Missouri Press |
Total Pages | : 614 |
Release | : 1998 |
Genre | : Biography & Autobiography |
ISBN | : 9780826212030 |
This correspondence, which encompasses Truman's courtship of his wife, his service in the senate, his presidency, and after, reveals not only the character of Truman's mind but also a shrewd observer's view of American politics.
Author | : Paul F. Boller |
Publisher | : Oxford University Press, USA |
Total Pages | : 504 |
Release | : 2004 |
Genre | : Humor |
ISBN | : |
"Presidential Campaigns devotes a chapter to each of America's elections, from George Washington's in 1789 to George W. Bush's in 2000, dealing with the candidates, the conventions, the party platforms, the speeches, and the reasons for the victories and defeats on election day. The book contains campaign highlights, too, singling out for special attention the gaffes, surprises, dramatic events, and novel ways of vote-chasing that turned up in each campaign. With a postscript analyzing the major changes in the ways Americans have conducted their campaigns through the years, Presidential Campaigns shows that for all their shortcomings, America's quadrennial races represent a basic feature of the American system and, for better or worse, reveal a great deal about the nature of the American people and their culture."--Jacket.
Author | : Jeffrey Schultz |
Publisher | : |
Total Pages | : 512 |
Release | : 2000 |
Genre | : Biography & Autobiography |
ISBN | : |
This text offers a concise single-volume survey of presidential scandals in the United States that looks at the behaviour and public image of every president from George Washington to Bill Clinton. The scandals covered include Franklin Pierce's drunkenness and JFK's extra-marital affairs.
Author | : David J. Goldman |
Publisher | : Carolrhoda Books |
Total Pages | : 72 |
Release | : 2004-01-01 |
Genre | : History |
ISBN | : 9780822501008 |
Highlights the political careers of a variety of candidates who lost their elections to the nation's highest office, including three-time presidential loser Henry Clay and Al Gore, who was defeated in the 2000 election after winning the popular vote.