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| Author | : David Stainforth |
| Publisher | : Oxford University Press |
| Total Pages | : 369 |
| Release | : 2023 |
| Genre | : Mathematics |
| ISBN | : 0198812930 |
A popular audience book that argues that todays climate change science undersells what we know with huge confidence and oversells what we know with little confidence, thereby misleading both the public and important international debates and negotiations
| Author | : R. Saravanan |
| Publisher | : Cambridge University Press |
| Total Pages | : 399 |
| Release | : 2021-10-21 |
| Genre | : Language Arts & Disciplines |
| ISBN | : 131651076X |
An introduction to the complex world of climate models that explains why we should trust their predictions despite the uncertainties.
| Author | : William Cheung |
| Publisher | : Elsevier |
| Total Pages | : 584 |
| Release | : 2019-08-17 |
| Genre | : Science |
| ISBN | : 0128179465 |
Predicting Future Oceans: Sustainability of Ocean and Human Systems Amidst Global Environmental Change provides a synthesis of our knowledge of the future state of the oceans. The editors undertake the challenge of integrating diverse perspectives—from oceanography to anthropology—to exhibit the changes in ecological conditions and their socioeconomic implications. Each contributing author provides a novel perspective, with the book as a whole collating scholarly understandings of future oceans and coastal communities across the world. The diverse perspectives, syntheses and state-of-the-art natural and social sciences contributions are led by past and current research fellows and principal investigators of the Nereus Program network. This includes members at 17 leading research institutes, addressing themes such as oceanography, biodiversity, fisheries, mariculture production, economics, pollution, public health and marine policy. This book is a comprehensive resource for senior undergraduate and postgraduate readers studying social and natural science, as well as practitioners working in the field of natural resources management and marine conservation. - Provides a synthesis of our knowledge on the future state of the oceans - Includes recommendations on how to move forwards - Highlights key social aspects linked to ocean ecosystems, including health, equity and sovereignty
| Author | : Matthias Heymann |
| Publisher | : Taylor & Francis |
| Total Pages | : 273 |
| Release | : 2017-06-26 |
| Genre | : Computers |
| ISBN | : 1315406292 |
In recent decades, science has experienced a revolutionary shift. The development and extensive application of computer modelling and simulation has transformed the knowledge‐making practices of scientific fields as diverse as astro‐physics, genetics, robotics and demography. This epistemic transformation has brought with it a simultaneous heightening of political relevance and a renewal of international policy agendas, raising crucial questions about the nature and application of simulation knowledges throughout public policy. Through a diverse range of case studies, spanning over a century of theoretical and practical developments in the atmospheric and environmental sciences, this book argues that computer modelling and simulation have substantially changed scientific and cultural practices and shaped the emergence of novel ‘cultures of prediction’. Making an innovative, interdisciplinary contribution to understanding the impact of computer modelling on research practice, institutional configurations and broader cultures, this volume will be essential reading for anyone interested in the past, present and future of climate change and the environmental sciences.
| Author | : National Research Council |
| Publisher | : National Academies Press |
| Total Pages | : 189 |
| Release | : 1999-05-27 |
| Genre | : Science |
| ISBN | : 030917340X |
El Nino has been with us for centuries, but now we can forcast it, and thus can prepare far in advance for the extreme climatic events it brings. The emerging ability to forecast climate may be of tremendous value to humanity if we learn how to use the information well. How does society cope with seasonal-to-interannual climatic variations? How have climate forecasts been usedâ€"and how useful have they been? What kinds of forecast information are needed? Who is likely to benefit from forecasting skill? What are the benefits of better forecasting? This book reviews what we know about these and other questions and identifies research directions toward more useful seasonal-to-interannual climate forecasts. In approaching their recommendations, the panel explores: Vulnerability of human activities to climate. State of the science of climate forecasting. How societies coevolved with their climates and cope with variations in climate. How climate information should be disseminated to achieve the best response. How we can use forecasting to better manage the human consequences of climate change.
| Author | : |
| Publisher | : |
| Total Pages | : 40 |
| Release | : 2003 |
| Genre | : Climatic changes |
| ISBN | : |
Issued for World Meteorological Day 2003, this brochure explains, in terms accessible to the general public, the climate system and the climate change processes, as well as model projections of our future climate with its far-reaching consequences to society. The brochure also explains why the unprecedented weather- and climate-related extreme events, such as floods, droughts and tropical cyclones in various parts of the world, are glimpses of what could be awaiting future generations if human-induced change to our climate is not brought under control.--Publisher's description.
| Author | : Michael J. McPhaden |
| Publisher | : John Wiley & Sons |
| Total Pages | : 528 |
| Release | : 2020-11-24 |
| Genre | : Science |
| ISBN | : 1119548128 |
Comprehensive and up-to-date information on Earth’s most dominant year-to-year climate variation The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in the Pacific Ocean has major worldwide social and economic consequences through its global scale effects on atmospheric and oceanic circulation, marine and terrestrial ecosystems, and other natural systems. Ongoing climate change is projected to significantly alter ENSO's dynamics and impacts. El Niño Southern Oscillation in a Changing Climate presents the latest theories, models, and observations, and explores the challenges of forecasting ENSO as the climate continues to change. Volume highlights include: Historical background on ENSO and its societal consequences Review of key El Niño (ENSO warm phase) and La Niña (ENSO cold phase) characteristics Mathematical description of the underlying physical processes that generate ENSO variations Conceptual framework for understanding ENSO changes on decadal and longer time scales, including the response to greenhouse gas forcing ENSO impacts on extreme ocean, weather, and climate events, including tropical cyclones, and how ENSO affects fisheries and the global carbon cycle Advances in modeling, paleo-reconstructions, and operational climate forecasting Future projections of ENSO and its impacts Factors influencing ENSO events, such as inter-basin climate interactions and volcanic eruptions The American Geophysical Union promotes discovery in Earth and space science for the benefit of humanity. Its publications disseminate scientific knowledge and provide resources for researchers, students, and professionals. Find out more about this book from this Q&A with the editors.
| Author | : Daniel R. Sarewitz |
| Publisher | : |
| Total Pages | : 434 |
| Release | : 2000-04 |
| Genre | : Education |
| ISBN | : |
Based upon ten case studies, Prediction explores how science-based predictions guide policy making and what this means in terms of global warming, biogenetically modifying organisms and polluting the environment with chemicals.
| Author | : Andrew Gettelman |
| Publisher | : Springer |
| Total Pages | : 282 |
| Release | : 2016-04-09 |
| Genre | : Technology & Engineering |
| ISBN | : 3662489597 |
This book demystifies the models we use to simulate present and future climates, allowing readers to better understand how to use climate model results. In order to predict the future trajectory of the Earth’s climate, climate-system simulation models are necessary. When and how do we trust climate model predictions? The book offers a framework for answering this question. It provides readers with a basic primer on climate and climate change, and offers non-technical explanations for how climate models are constructed, why they are uncertain, and what level of confidence we should place in them. It presents current results and the key uncertainties concerning them. Uncertainty is not a weakness but understanding uncertainty is a strength and a key part of using any model, including climate models. Case studies of how climate model output has been used and how it might be used in the future are provided. The ultimate goal of this book is to promote a better understanding of the structure and uncertainties of climate models among users, including scientists, engineers and policymakers.
| Author | : Nicholas Rescher |
| Publisher | : SUNY Press |
| Total Pages | : 334 |
| Release | : 1998-01-01 |
| Genre | : Social Science |
| ISBN | : 9780791435533 |
The future obviously matters to us. It is, after all, where we'll be spending the rest of our lives. We need some degree of foresight if we are to make effective plans for managing our affairs. Much that we would like to know in advance cannot be predicted. But a vast amount of successful prediction is nonetheless possible, especially in the context of applied sciences such as medicine, meteorology, and engineering. This book examines our prospects for finding out about the future in advance. It addresses questions such as why prediction is possible in some areas and not others; what sorts of methods and resources make successful prediction possible; and what obstacles limit the predictive venture. Nicholas Rescher develops a general theory of prediction that encompasses its fundamental principles, methodology, and practice and gives an overview of its promises and problems. Predicting the Future considers the anthropological and historical background of the predictive enterprise. It also examines the conceptual, epistemic, and ontological principles that set the stage for predictive efforts. In short, Rescher explores the basic features of the predictive situation and considers their broader implications in science, in philosophy, and in the management of our daily affairs.
