Polling Unpacked
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Author | : Mark Pack |
Publisher | : Reaktion Books |
Total Pages | : 353 |
Release | : 2022-05-13 |
Genre | : Political Science |
ISBN | : 1789145686 |
From a political-polling expert, an eye-opening—and hilarious—look at the origins of polls and how they have been used and abused ever since. Opinion polls dominate media coverage of politics, especially elections. But how do the polls work? How do we tell the good from the bad? And in light of recent polling disasters, can we trust them at all? Polling UnPacked gives us the full story, from the first rudimentary polls in the nineteenth century, through attempts by politicians to ban polling in the twentieth century, to the very latest techniques and controversies from the last few years. Equal parts enlightening and hilarious, the book requires no prior knowledge of polling or statistics to understand. But even hardened pollsters will find much to enjoy, from how polling has been used to help plan military invasions to why an exhausted interviewer was accidentally instrumental in inventing exit polls. Written by a former political pollster and the creator of Britain’s foremost polling-intention database, Polling UnPacked reveals which opinion polls to trust, which to ignore, and which, frankly, to laugh at. It will change the way we see political coverage forever.
Author | : Herbert B. Asher |
Publisher | : CQ-Roll Call Group Books |
Total Pages | : 198 |
Release | : 1992 |
Genre | : Political Science |
ISBN | : |
Author | : Kirby Goidel |
Publisher | : LSU Press |
Total Pages | : 183 |
Release | : 2011-05-02 |
Genre | : Political Science |
ISBN | : 080713953X |
The 2008 presidential election provided a "perfect storm" for pollsters. A significant portion of the population had exchanged their landlines for cellphones, which made them harder to survey. Additionally, a potential Bradley effect -- in which white voters misrepresent their intentions of voting for or against a black candidate -- skewed predictions, and aggressive voter registration and mobilization campaigns by Barack Obama combined to challenge conventional understandings about how to measure and report public preferences. In the wake of these significant changes, Political Polling in the Digital Age, edited by Kirby Goidel, offers timely and insightful interpretations of the impact these trends will have on polling. In this groundbreaking collection, contributors place recent developments in public-opinion polling into a broader historical context, examine how to construct accurate meanings from public-opinion surveys, and analyze the future of public-opinion polling. Notable contributors include Mark Blumenthal, editor and publisher of Pollster.com; Anna Greenberg, a leading Democratic pollster; and Scott Keeter, director of survey research for the Pew Research Center. In an era of increasingly personalized and interactive communications, accurate political polling is more difficult and also more important. Political Polling in the Digital Age presents fresh perspectives and relevant tactics that demystify the variable world of opinion taking.
Author | : Mark Pack |
Publisher | : Biteback Publishing |
Total Pages | : 316 |
Release | : 2021-07-08 |
Genre | : Political Science |
ISBN | : 1785901699 |
In politics there are no prizes For second place. Luckily, seasoned campaign professionals Mark Pack and Edward Maxfield have distilled successful electoral tactics from around the globe into 101 bite-sized lessons to help steer you on the course to power. Learn how to pass the three-seconds test, why you should actually embrace online trolls, and why you must never, ever, forget the law of the left nostril. Packed with advice and practical tips, this new, fully updated third edition of the classic political guide reveals the insider secrets and skills you need to make sure you're in pole position on election day.
Author | : W. Joseph Campbell |
Publisher | : Univ of California Press |
Total Pages | : 365 |
Release | : 2024-02-20 |
Genre | : History |
ISBN | : 0520397789 |
"Lost in a Gallup tells the story of polling flops and failures in presidential elections since 1936. Polls do go bad, as outcomes in 2020, 2016, 2012, 2004, and 2000 all remind us. This updated edition includes a new chapter and conclusion that address the 2020 polling surprise and considers whether polls will get it right in 2024."--Page 4 of cover.
Author | : Mark Pack |
Publisher | : Biteback Publishing |
Total Pages | : 178 |
Release | : 2020-03-12 |
Genre | : Social Science |
ISBN | : 1785905791 |
Bad News is a popular guide that helps you make sense of the news wherever it appears – print, broadcast or online. Peppered with examples from around the world, the book turns a serious subject into an enjoyable read. You will learn as you are entertained. Readers will discover all the tricks and techniques required to work out whether to trust a story based on an anonymous source, when big numbers are really small and when small numbers are really big, why you should ignore what appears behind someone on the TV and much more. You'll even learn why you should always read stories in the Daily Mail backwards and when correlation is causation. But readers will also learn how ill-suited the news is to understanding and interpreting the modern world, even when it comes from honest journalists working for reputable outlets. The news has a role, but readers will learn how to ensure they don't confuse that with understanding the world.
Author | : G. Elliott Morris |
Publisher | : W. W. Norton & Company |
Total Pages | : 178 |
Release | : 2022-07-12 |
Genre | : Political Science |
ISBN | : 039386698X |
An insightful exploration of political polling and a bold defense of its crucial role in a modern democracy. Public opinion polling is the ultimate democratic process; it gives every person an equal voice in letting elected leaders know what they need and want. But in the eyes of the public, polls today are tarnished. Recent election forecasts have routinely missed the mark and media coverage of polls has focused solely on their ability to predict winners and losers. Polls deserve better. In Strength in Numbers, data journalist G. Elliott Morris argues that the larger purpose of political polls is to improve democracy, not just predict elections. Whether used by interest groups, the press, or politicians, polling serves as a pipeline from the governed to the government, giving citizens influence they would otherwise lack. No one who believes in democracy can afford to give up on polls; they should commit, instead, to understanding them better. In a vibrant history of polling, Morris takes readers from the first semblance of data-gathering in the ancient world through to the development of modern-day scientific polling. He explains how the internet and “big data” have solved many challenges in polling—and created others. He covers the rise of polling aggregation and methods of election forecasting, reveals how data can be distorted and misrepresented, and demystifies the real uncertainty of polling. Candidly acknowledging where polls have gone wrong in the past, Morris charts a path for the industry’s future where it can truly work for the people. Persuasively argued and deeply researched, Strength in Numbers is an essential guide to understanding and embracing one of the most important and overlooked democratic institutions in the United States.
Author | : Ann Malaspina |
Publisher | : Albert Whitman & Company |
Total Pages | : 35 |
Release | : 2012-07-01 |
Genre | : Juvenile Nonfiction |
ISBN | : 0807531898 |
Top 10 on the 2013 Amelia Bloomer list A nonfiction story about suffragist Susan B. Anthony's first trip to the ballot box. On November 5, 1872, Susan B. Anthony made history--and broke the law--when she voted in the US presidential election, a privilege that had been reserved for men. She was arrested, tried, and found guilty: "The greatest outrage History every witnessed," she wrote in her journal. It wasn't until 1920 that women were granted the right to vote, but the civil rights victory would not have been possible without Susan B. Anthony's leadership and passion to stand up for what was right.
Author | : David William Moore |
Publisher | : Beacon Press |
Total Pages | : 228 |
Release | : 2008 |
Genre | : Language Arts & Disciplines |
ISBN | : 9780807042328 |
On January 8, 2008, the date of the New Hampshire primary, media pollsters made their biggest prediction gaffe since dubbing Thomas Dewey a shoo-in to beat incumbent president Harry S. Truman. Eleven different polls forecast a solid win by Barack Obama; instead, Hillary Clinton took New Hampshire and recharged her candidacy. The months that followed only brought more dismal performances and contradictory results--undeniable evidence that something is terribly wrong with the polling industry today. It's easy to spot the election polls that get it wrong. Equally misleading and often far more disastrous are polls misrepresenting public opinion on government policy. For instance, in the period leading up to the U.S. invasion of Iraq, every major media poll showed substantial public support for a preemptive strike. In truth, there was no majority of Americans calling for war. For the first time, David W. Moore--praised as a "scholarly crusader" by the New York Times--reveals that pollsters don't report public opinion, they manufacture it. And they do so at the peril of our democratic process. While critics cry foul over partisan favoritism in the mainstream media, what's really at work is a power bias that polls legitimate by providing the stamp of public approval. Drawing on over a decade's experience at the Gallup Poll and a distinguished academic career in survey research, Moore describes the questionable tactics pollsters use to create poll-driven news stories--including force-feeding respondents, slanting question wording, and ignoring public ignorance on even the most arcane issues. More than proof that the numbers do lie,The Opinion Makersclearly and convincingly spells out how urgent it is that we make polls deliver on their promise to monitor, not manipulate, the pulse of democracy.
Author | : Robert Wuthnow |
Publisher | : Oxford University Press, USA |
Total Pages | : 257 |
Release | : 2015 |
Genre | : History |
ISBN | : 019025890X |
Inventing American Religion traces the history of polling, examining its powerful rise in supplying information about the nation's faith, chronicling its current weaknesses, and tackling the difficult questions of how we should think about polls and surveys in American religion today.