Managing Currency Crises in Emerging Markets

Managing Currency Crises in Emerging Markets
Author: Michael P. Dooley
Publisher: University of Chicago Press
Total Pages: 456
Release: 2007-11-01
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 0226155420

The management of financial crises in emerging markets is a vital and high-stakes challenge in an increasingly global economy. For this reason, it's also a highly contentious issue in today's public policy circles. In this book, leading economists-many of whom have also participated in policy debates on these issues-consider how best to reduce the frequency and cost of such crises. The contributions here explore the management process from the beginning of a crisis to the long-term effects of the techniques used to minimize it. The first three chapters focus on the earliest responses and the immediate defense of a currency under attack, exploring whether unnecessary damage to economies can be avoided by adopting the right response within the first few days of a financial crisis. Next, contributors examine the adjustment programs that follow, considering how to design these programs so that they shorten the recovery phase, encourage economic growth, and minimize the probability of future difficulties. Finally, the last four papers analyze the actual effects of adjustment programs, asking whether they accomplish what they are designed to do-and whether, as many critics assert, they impose disproportionate costs on the poorest members of society. Recent high-profile currency crises have proven not only how harmful they can be to neighboring economies and trading partners, but also how important policy responses can be in determining their duration and severity. Economists and policymakers will welcome the insightful evaluations in this important volume, and those of its companion, Sebastian Edwards and Jeffrey A. Frankel's Preventing Currency Crises in Emerging Markets.

Financial Crises Explanations, Types, and Implications

Financial Crises Explanations, Types, and Implications
Author: Mr.Stijn Claessens
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 66
Release: 2013-01-30
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1475561008

This paper reviews the literature on financial crises focusing on three specific aspects. First, what are the main factors explaining financial crises? Since many theories on the sources of financial crises highlight the importance of sharp fluctuations in asset and credit markets, the paper briefly reviews theoretical and empirical studies on developments in these markets around financial crises. Second, what are the major types of financial crises? The paper focuses on the main theoretical and empirical explanations of four types of financial crises—currency crises, sudden stops, debt crises, and banking crises—and presents a survey of the literature that attempts to identify these episodes. Third, what are the real and financial sector implications of crises? The paper briefly reviews the short- and medium-run implications of crises for the real economy and financial sector. It concludes with a summary of the main lessons from the literature and future research directions.

Preventing Currency Crises in Emerging Markets

Preventing Currency Crises in Emerging Markets
Author: Sebastian Edwards
Publisher: University of Chicago Press
Total Pages: 782
Release: 2002-11-15
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 9780226184944

Economists and policymakers are still trying to understand the lessons recent financial crises in Asia and other emerging market countries hold for the future of the global financial system. In this timely and important volume, distinguished academics, officials in multilateral organizations, and public and private sector economists explore the causes of and effective policy responses to international currency crises. Topics covered include exchange rate regimes, contagion (transmission of currency crises across countries), the current account of the balance of payments, the role of private sector investors and of speculators, the reaction of the official sector (including the multilaterals), capital controls, bank supervision and weaknesses, and the roles of cronyism, corruption, and large players (including hedge funds). Ably balancing detailed case studies, cross-country comparisons, and theoretical concerns, this book will make a major contribution to ongoing efforts to understand and prevent international currency crises.

Financial Crises

Financial Crises
Author: Mr.Stijn Claessens
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 754
Release: 2014-02-19
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1484355261

The lingering effects of the economic crisis are still visible—this shows a clear need to improve our understanding of financial crises. This book surveys a wide range of crises, including banking, balance of payments, and sovereign debt crises. It begins with an overview of the various types of crises and introduces a comprehensive database of crises. Broad lessons on crisis prevention and management, as well as the short-term economic effects of crises, recessions, and recoveries, are discussed.

International Capital Flows

International Capital Flows
Author: Martin Feldstein
Publisher: University of Chicago Press
Total Pages: 500
Release: 2007-12-01
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 0226241807

Recent changes in technology, along with the opening up of many regions previously closed to investment, have led to explosive growth in the international movement of capital. Flows from foreign direct investment and debt and equity financing can bring countries substantial gains by augmenting local savings and by improving technology and incentives. Investing companies acquire market access, lower cost inputs, and opportunities for profitable introductions of production methods in the countries where they invest. But, as was underscored recently by the economic and financial crises in several Asian countries, capital flows can also bring risks. Although there is no simple explanation of the currency crisis in Asia, it is clear that fixed exchange rates and chronic deficits increased the likelihood of a breakdown. Similarly, during the 1970s, the United States and other industrial countries loaned OPEC surpluses to borrowers in Latin America. But when the U.S. Federal Reserve raised interest rates to control soaring inflation, the result was a widespread debt moratorium in Latin America as many countries throughout the region struggled to pay the high interest on their foreign loans. International Capital Flows contains recent work by eminent scholars and practitioners on the experience of capital flows to Latin America, Asia, and eastern Europe. These papers discuss the role of banks, equity markets, and foreign direct investment in international capital flows, and the risks that investors and others face with these transactions. By focusing on capital flows' productivity and determinants, and the policy issues they raise, this collection is a valuable resource for economists, policymakers, and financial market participants.

Output Response to Currency Crises

Output Response to Currency Crises
Author: Deepak Mishra
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 38
Release: 2003-11-01
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1451875525

This paper analyzes the behavior of output during currency crises using a sample of 195 crisis episodes in 91 developing countries during 1970-98. It finds that more than two-fifths of the crises in the sample were expansionary, and that output contraction was greater in large and more developed economies than in small and less developed economies. Currency crises have not been any more contractionary in the 1990s than in the previous two decades. Countries that traded less with the rest of the world, that had a relatively open capital account, and where crises were preceded by large capital inflows were more likely to be associated with contraction during crises. The contraction was more pronounced if trade competitors devalued, oil prices rose during the crisis, and postcrisis period was marked by tight monetary policy and expansionary fiscal policy.

Global Waves of Debt

Global Waves of Debt
Author: M. Ayhan Kose
Publisher: World Bank Publications
Total Pages: 403
Release: 2021-03-03
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1464815453

The global economy has experienced four waves of rapid debt accumulation over the past 50 years. The first three debt waves ended with financial crises in many emerging market and developing economies. During the current wave, which started in 2010, the increase in debt in these economies has already been larger, faster, and broader-based than in the previous three waves. Current low interest rates mitigate some of the risks associated with high debt. However, emerging market and developing economies are also confronted by weak growth prospects, mounting vulnerabilities, and elevated global risks. A menu of policy options is available to reduce the likelihood that the current debt wave will end in crisis and, if crises do take place, will alleviate their impact.

Quantitative Analyses of Crises

Quantitative Analyses of Crises
Author: Yoshiharu Ishihara
Publisher: World Bank Publications
Total Pages: 26
Release: 2005
Genre: Financial crises
ISBN:

Studies use different conceptual and operational definitions of crises. The different crisis identifications can lead to inconsistent conclusions and policy formulation even if the same analytical framework is applied. Also, most studies focus on only a few types of crises. This narrow focus on crises may not capture the multidimensionality of crises. Seven crisis types are analyzed, namely (1) liquidity type banking crises, (2) solvency type banking crises, (3) balance of payments crises, (4) currency crises, (5) debt crises, (6) growth rate crises, and (7) financial crises. Crisis data were collected from 15 emerging economies in 1980-2002 on a quarterly basis. The crisis identification exercise finds that multidimensionality in which different crisis types occur in short periods is one of the most important characteristics of recent crises. Further, the Granger causality tests in five Asian economies (Indonesia, the Republic of Korea, Malaysia, the Philippines, and Thailand) find that currency crises tend to trigger other types of crises, and therefore exchange rate management is essential.

Current Account Reversals and Currency Crises

Current Account Reversals and Currency Crises
Author: Mr.Gian Milesi-Ferretti
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 45
Release: 1998-06-01
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1451952422

This paper studies large reductions in current account deficits and exchange rate depreciations in low- and middle-income countries. It examines which factors help predict the occurrence of a reversal or a currency crisis, and how these events affect macroeconomic performance. Both domestic factors, such as the low reserves, and external factors, such as unfavorable terms of trade, are found to trigger reversals and currency crises. The two types of events are, however, distinct; an exchange rate crash is associated with a fall in output growth and a recovery thereafter, while for reversals there is no systematic evidence of a growth slowdown.

Speculative Attacks and Currency Crises

Speculative Attacks and Currency Crises
Author: Ms.Inci Ötker
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 38
Release: 1995-11-01
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1451853548

This paper estimates a speculative attack model of currency crises in order to identify the role of economic fundamentals and any early warning signals of a potential currency crisis. The data from the Mexican economy was used to illustrate the model. Based on the results, a deterioration in fundamentals appears to have generated high one-step-ahead probabilities for the regime changes during the sample period 1982-1994. Particularly, increases in inflation differentials, appreciations of the real exchange rate, foreign reserve losses, expansionary monetary and fiscal policies, and increases in the share of short-term foreign currency debt appear to have contributed to the market pressures and regime changes in that period.