Output Drops And The Shocks That Matter
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Author | : Torbjörn Becker |
Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
Total Pages | : 48 |
Release | : 2006-07 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : |
Output drops are usually associated with major disruption for the residents of affected countries, both directly and often through ensuing, prolonged growth slowdowns. Using a century of data, we document that output drops are more frequent in countries at a lower stage of economic development. We then turn to a more in-depth analysis of the post-1970 era, examining output drops in a large panel of countries, and systematically relating them to a variety of shocks. We compute the expected cost of each type of shock as a function of the shock's frequency, the likelihood that the shock will be associated with a drop in output, and the size of the output drop. The largest costs are associated with external financial shocks (notably, sudden stops in financial flows) for emerging markets, and with real external shocks (in particular, terms-of-trade shocks) for developing countries.
Author | : Mr.Abdul Abiad |
Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
Total Pages | : 46 |
Release | : 2012-12-20 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 1475518706 |
Economic performance in many emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs) improved substantially over the past twenty years. The past decade was particularly good—for the first time EMDEs spent more time in expansion and had smaller downturns thanadvanced economies. In this paper we document the history of EMDEs’ resilience over the past sixty years, and investigate what factors have been associated with it. We find that their improved performance in recent years is accounted for by both good policies and a lowerincidence of external and domestic shocks—better policies account for about three-fifths of their improved resilience, while less frequent shocks account for the remainder.
Author | : Ms.Era Dabla-Norris |
Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
Total Pages | : 42 |
Release | : 2012-11-02 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 1475548834 |
This paper develops a new index which provides early warning signals of a growth crisis in the event of large external shocks in low-income countries. Multivariate regression analysis and a univariate signaling approach are used to map information from a parsimonious set of underlying policy, structural, and institutional indicators into a composite vulnerability index. The results show that vulnerabilities to a growth crisis in low-income countries declined significantly from their peaks in the early 1990s, but have risen in recent years as fiscal policy buffers were expended in the wake of the global financial crisis.
Author | : Alistair Dieppe |
Publisher | : World Bank Publications |
Total Pages | : 552 |
Release | : 2021-06-09 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 1464816093 |
The COVID-19 pandemic struck the global economy after a decade that featured a broad-based slowdown in productivity growth. Global Productivity: Trends, Drivers, and Policies presents the first comprehensive analysis of the evolution and drivers of productivity growth, examines the effects of COVID-19 on productivity, and discusses a wide range of policies needed to rekindle productivity growth. The book also provides a far-reaching data set of multiple measures of productivity for up to 164 advanced economies and emerging market and developing economies, and it introduces a new sectoral database of productivity. The World Bank has created an extraordinary book on productivity, covering a large group of countries and using a wide variety of data sources. There is an emphasis on emerging and developing economies, whereas the prior literature has concentrated on developed economies. The book seeks to understand growth patterns and quantify the role of (among other things) the reallocation of factors, technological change, and the impact of natural disasters, including the COVID-19 pandemic. This book is must-reading for specialists in emerging economies but also provides deep insights for anyone interested in economic growth and productivity. Martin Neil Baily Senior Fellow, The Brookings Institution Former Chair, U.S. President’s Council of Economic Advisers This is an important book at a critical time. As the book notes, global productivity growth had already been slowing prior to the COVID-19 pandemic and collapses with the pandemic. If we want an effective recovery, we have to understand what was driving these long-run trends. The book presents a novel global approach to examining the levels, growth rates, and drivers of productivity growth. For anyone wanting to understand or influence productivity growth, this is an essential read. Nicholas Bloom William D. Eberle Professor of Economics, Stanford University The COVID-19 pandemic hit a global economy that was already struggling with an adverse pre-existing condition—slow productivity growth. This extraordinarily valuable and timely book brings considerable new evidence that shows the broad-based, long-standing nature of the slowdown. It is comprehensive, with an exceptional focus on emerging market and developing economies. Importantly, it shows how severe disasters (of which COVID-19 is just the latest) typically harm productivity. There are no silver bullets, but the book suggests sensible strategies to improve growth prospects. John Fernald Schroders Chaired Professor of European Competitiveness and Reform and Professor of Economics, INSEAD
Author | : Barbara Casu |
Publisher | : Routledge |
Total Pages | : 153 |
Release | : 2018-03-08 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 1315529831 |
The aim of this book is to bring academic work on contemporary issues in financial institutions and markets. The general theme is designed to allow for a wide range of topics covering the diverse nature of academic research in banking and finance. As a consequence the contributions cover a wide range of issues across a broad spectrum, including: bank business models, bank competition and stability, credit card pricing and risk; bank supervision; and international investments. This book was originally published as a special issue of The European Journal of Finance.
Author | : International Monetary Fund. Legal Dept. |
Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
Total Pages | : 45 |
Release | : 2006-10-10 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 1498332137 |
The paper finds that simple econometric specifications yield surprising rich and complex dynamics -- relative prices respond to the nominal exchange rate and pass-through effects, import and export volumes respond to relative price changes, and the trade balance responds to changes in import and export values.
Author | : Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations |
Publisher | : Food & Agriculture Org. |
Total Pages | : 98 |
Release | : 2018-11-08 |
Genre | : Political Science |
ISBN | : 9251099693 |
Commodity prices are projected to increase marginally until 2030. The challenge for developing countries is to foster an environment that combines fiscal, sectoral and social policies to prevent price volatility from impacting national economies.
Author | : Mr. Anil Ari |
Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
Total Pages | : 40 |
Release | : 2022-07 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : |
We use a decomposition methodology to analyze the factors underlying the differentiated output losses of European countries in 2020. Our findings are fourfold: First, 2020 growth outcomes can be explained by differences in mobility, underlying growth trends, and pre-pandemic country fundamentals. Second, fiscal and monetary policies helped alleviate output losses during the pandemic in all European countries but to a varying extent. Third, shallower recessions in emerging market economies in Europe can be attributed to higher underlying growth and younger populations. Fourth, fiscal multipliers were higher in countries where above-the-line measures accounted for a larger share of the total fiscal package, the size of the total fiscal package was smaller, and inequality and informality were greater, as well as in countries with IMF-supported program during the pandemic.
Author | : Douglas Darrell Evanoff |
Publisher | : World Scientific |
Total Pages | : 455 |
Release | : 2009 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 9812833382 |
The impact of globalization of financial markets is a highly debated topic, particularly in recent months when the issue of globalization and contagion of financial distress has become a focus of intense policy debate. The papers in this volume provide an up-to-date overview of the key issues in this debate. While most of the contributions were prepared after the initial outbreak of the current global turmoil and financial crisis, they identify the relative strengths of the risk diversification and risk transmission processes and examine the empirical evidence to date. The book considers the relative roles of banks, nonbank financial institutions and capital markets in both risk diversification and risk transmission. It then evaluates the current status of crisis resolution in a global context, and speculates where to go from here in terms of understanding, resolution, prevention and public policy.
Author | : Mr.Kangni Kpodar |
Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
Total Pages | : 37 |
Release | : 2015-07-28 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 1513560956 |
This paper assesses how regional trade agreements (RTAs) impact growth volatility on a worldwide sample of 170 countries with data spanning the period 1978-2012. Notwithstanding concerns that trade openness through RTAs can heighten exposure to shocks, in particular when it leads to increased product specialization, RTAs through enhanced policy credibility, improved policy coordination, and reduced risk of conflicts can ease growth volatility. Empirical estimations suggest the benefits outweigh the costs as RTAs are consistently associated with lower growth volatility, after controlling for trade openness and other determinants of growth volatility. Furthermore, regression results also suggest that countries that are more prone to shocks are more likely to join a RTA, in particular with countries with relatively less volatile growth, additionally enhancing the stabilization effect.