Nuclear Proliferation and the Future of Conflict

Nuclear Proliferation and the Future of Conflict
Author: Martin Van Creveld
Publisher:
Total Pages: 200
Release: 1993
Genre: History
ISBN:

Tools of mass destruction are in the hands of many third-world countries and feuding nationalities of the former Soviet Union and Eastern Europe. Now an internationally acclaimed military historian addresses our most pressing question: Will fear and respect for nuclear weapons be sufficient to prevent their use despite the implacable hatred that characterizes many ancient regional rivalries?

The Sword And The Olive

The Sword And The Olive
Author: Martin Van Creveld
Publisher: Hachette UK
Total Pages: 448
Release: 2008-08-06
Genre: History
ISBN: 078672546X

Combining razor-sharp analysis with dramatic narrative, vivid portraits of soldiers and commanders with illuminating discussions of battle tactics and covert actions, The Sword and the Olive traces the history of the IDF from its beginnings in Palestine to today. The book also goes beyond chronology to wrestle with the political and ethical struggles that have shaped the IDF and the country it serves—struggles that are manifesting themselves in the recent tragic escalation of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict. Often revisionist in attitude, surprising in many of its conclusions, this book casts new light on the struggle for peace in the Middle East.

Regional Nuclear Proliferation and Future Conflict: Implications for the Operational Commander

Regional Nuclear Proliferation and Future Conflict: Implications for the Operational Commander
Author:
Publisher:
Total Pages: 22
Release: 1995
Genre:
ISBN:

The end of the Cold War is thought to signal a watershed in American military thought, allowing the practical application of operational art in conventional conflict, unshackled by the doctrine of the "strategic defensive" imposed by the nuclear stalemate of a bipolar world. This thesis is "proven" by the success of the U.S.-led coalition in Operation DESERT STORM. But what if Iraq had had a deliverable nuclear capability? The operational impact of a nuclear-capable regional predator on U.S. power projection capabilities is examined in the context of three assumptions: (1) Nuclear proliferation into the ranks of the regional powers is inevitable, given the present dynamics of power, politics and economics. (2) Given the concomitant inevitability of United States engagement in future regional conflicts throughout the world, American forces (either unilaterally or as part of a coalition) will eventually have to confront a regional nuclear power. (3) For a variety of reasons, the United States will not elect a nuclear response to such a challenge. Given these assumptions, the impact of a credible, localized nuclear threat on the operational commander is examined, concentrating on the extent to which such a threat might constrain his free exercise of classical operational art. (MM).

Nuclear Strategy in the Modern Era

Nuclear Strategy in the Modern Era
Author: Vipin Narang
Publisher: Princeton University Press
Total Pages: 357
Release: 2014-05-25
Genre: Political Science
ISBN: 1400850401

The world is in a second nuclear age in which regional powers play an increasingly prominent role. These states have small nuclear arsenals, often face multiple active conflicts, and sometimes have weak institutions. How do these nuclear states—and potential future ones—manage their nuclear forces and influence international conflict? Examining the reasoning and deterrence consequences of regional power nuclear strategies, this book demonstrates that these strategies matter greatly to international stability and it provides new insights into conflict dynamics across important areas of the world such as the Middle East, East Asia, and South Asia. Vipin Narang identifies the diversity of regional power nuclear strategies and describes in detail the posture each regional power has adopted over time. Developing a theory for the sources of regional power nuclear strategies, he offers the first systematic explanation of why states choose the postures they do and under what conditions they might shift strategies. Narang then analyzes the effects of these choices on a state's ability to deter conflict. Using both quantitative and qualitative analysis, he shows that, contrary to a bedrock article of faith in the canon of nuclear deterrence, the acquisition of nuclear weapons does not produce a uniform deterrent effect against opponents. Rather, some postures deter conflict more successfully than others. Nuclear Strategy in the Modern Era considers the range of nuclear choices made by regional powers and the critical challenges they pose to modern international security.

Arms and Influence

Arms and Influence
Author: Thomas C. Schelling
Publisher: Yale University Press
Total Pages: 337
Release: 2020-03-17
Genre: Political Science
ISBN: 0300253486

“This is a brilliant and hardheaded book. It will frighten those who prefer not to dwell on the unthinkable and infuriate those who have taken refuge in stereotypes and moral attitudinizing.”—Gordon A. Craig, New York Times Book Review Originally published more than fifty years ago, this landmark book explores the ways in which military capabilities—real or imagined—are used, skillfully or clumsily, as bargaining power. Anne-Marie Slaughter’s new introduction to the work shows how Schelling’s framework—conceived of in a time of superpowers and mutually assured destruction—still applies to our multipolar world, where wars are fought as much online as on the ground.

The Nuclear Future

The Nuclear Future
Author: Michael Mandelbaum
Publisher: Cornell University Press
Total Pages: 135
Release: 2019-05-15
Genre: History
ISBN: 150174528X

While specifically defining many of the technical terms that have made this subject so inaccessible, Michael Mandelbaum discusses the weapons systems and nuclear doctrine of both the United States and the Soviet Union along with their predicted impact on the future of the arms race.

On Limited Nuclear War in the 21st Century

On Limited Nuclear War in the 21st Century
Author: Jeffrey A Larsen
Publisher: Stanford University Press
Total Pages: 309
Release: 2014-04-02
Genre: Political Science
ISBN: 0804790914

These essays by nuclear policy experts provide “a speculative but serious and well-informed journey through a variety of scenarios and contingencies” (Foreign Affairs). Recent decades have seen a slow but steady increase in nuclear armed states, and in the seemingly less constrained policy goals of some of the newer “rogue” states in the international system. The authors of On Limited Nuclear War in the 21st Century argue that a time may come when one of these states makes the conscious decision that using a nuclear weapon against the United States, its allies, or forward deployed forces in the context of a crisis or a regional conventional conflict may be in its interests. They assert that we are unprepared for these types of limited nuclear wars and that it is urgent we rethink the theory, policy, and implementation of force related to our approaches to this type of engagement. Together they critique Cold War doctrine on limited nuclear war and consider a number of the key concepts that should govern our approach to limited nuclear conflict in the future. These include identifying the factors likely to lead to limited nuclear war; examining the geopolitics of future conflict scenarios that might lead to small-scale nuclear use; and assessing strategies for crisis management and escalation control. Finally, they consider a range of strategies and operational concepts for countering, controlling, or containing limited nuclear war. “A series of trenchant essays that deconstruct a critical national security challenge that most of us wish did not exist. Assembling a star-studded cast of scholars, analysts, and policy practitioners, Larsen and Kartchner have produced some of the most important new thinking on an old topic.” —H-Diplo

Delaying Doomsday

Delaying Doomsday
Author: Rupal N. Mehta
Publisher: Oxford University Press
Total Pages: 288
Release: 2019-12-31
Genre: Political Science
ISBN: 0190077980

In 1960, President Kennedy warned of a dangerous future, rife with nuclear-armed states and a widespread penchant for conflict by the end of the century. Thankfully, his prediction failed to pass; in fact, roughly three times as many countries have since opted to give up their nuclear pursuit or relinquish existing weapons than have maintained their arsenals. Nevertheless, clandestine acquisition of nuclear materials and technology by states such as Iraq, Syria, and Iran, and a nuclear North Korea, has reaffirmed the need for United States' commitment to pursuing aggressive counterproliferation strategies, particularly with rogue states. This book looks at the experiences of countries that ventured down the path of nuclear proliferation but were stopped short, and examines how the international community bargains with proliferators to encourage nuclear reversal. It asks why so many states have relented to pressure to abandon their nuclear weapons programs, and which counterproliferation policies have been successful. Rupal N. Mehta argues that the international community can persuade countries to reverse their weapons programs with rewards and sanctions especially when the threat to use military force remains "on the table". Specifically, nuclear reversal is most likely when states are threatened with sanctions and offered face-saving rewards that help them withstand domestic political opposition. Historically, the United States has relied on a variety of policy levers--including economic and civilian nuclear assistance and, sometimes, security guarantees, as well as economic sanctions--to achieve nuclear reversal. Underlying these negotiations is the possibility of military intervention, which incentivizes states to accept the agreement (often spearheaded by the United States) and end their nuclear pursuit. The book draws on interviews with current and former policymakers, as well as in-depth case studies of India, Iran, and North Korea, to provide policy recommendations on how best to manage nuclear proliferation challenges from rogue states. It also outlines the proliferation horizon, or the set of state and non-state actors that are likely to have interest in acquiring nuclear technology for civilian, military, or unknown purposes. The book concludes with implications and recommendations for U.S. and global nuclear counterproliferation policy.

The Future of U.S. Nuclear Weapons Policy

The Future of U.S. Nuclear Weapons Policy
Author: Committee on International Security and Arms Control
Publisher: National Academies Press
Total Pages: 119
Release: 1997-07-01
Genre: Technology & Engineering
ISBN: 0309518377

The debate about appropriate purposes and policies for U.S. nuclear weapons has been under way since the beginning of the nuclear age. With the end of the Cold War, the debate has entered a new phase, propelled by the post-Cold War transformations of the international political landscape. This volume--based on an exhaustive reexamination of issues addressed in The Future of the U.S.-Soviet Nuclear Relationship (NRC, 1991)--describes the state to which U.S. and Russian nuclear forces and policies have evolved since the Cold War ended. The book evaluates a regime of progressive constraints for future U.S. nuclear weapons policy that includes further reductions in nuclear forces, changes in nuclear operations to preserve deterrence but enhance operational safety, and measures to help prevent proliferation of nuclear weapons. In addition, it examines the conditions and means by which comprehensive nuclear disarmament could become feasible and desirable.