News Driven Business Cycles

News Driven Business Cycles
Author: Paul Beaudry
Publisher:
Total Pages: 101
Release: 2013
Genre: Business cycles
ISBN:

There is a widespread belief that changes in expectations may be an important independent driver of economic fluctuations. The news view of business cycles offers a formalization of this perspective. In this paper we discuss mechanisms by which changes in agents' information, due to the arrival of news, can cause business cycle fluctuations driven by expectational change, and we review the empirical evidence aimed at evaluating its relevance. In particular, we highlight how the literature on news and business cycles offers a coherent way of thinking about aggregate fluctuations, while at the same time we emphasize the many challenges that must be addressed before a proper assessment of its role in business cycles can be established.

Hysteresis and Business Cycles

Hysteresis and Business Cycles
Author: Ms.Valerie Cerra
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 50
Release: 2020-05-29
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1513536990

Traditionally, economic growth and business cycles have been treated independently. However, the dependence of GDP levels on its history of shocks, what economists refer to as “hysteresis,” argues for unifying the analysis of growth and cycles. In this paper, we review the recent empirical and theoretical literature that motivate this paradigm shift. The renewed interest in hysteresis has been sparked by the persistence of the Global Financial Crisis and fears of a slow recovery from the Covid-19 crisis. The findings of the recent literature have far-reaching conceptual and policy implications. In recessions, monetary and fiscal policies need to be more active to avoid the permanent scars of a downturn. And in good times, running a high-pressure economy could have permanent positive effects.

News-driven Business Cycles in SVARs

News-driven Business Cycles in SVARs
Author: Patrick Bunk
Publisher:
Total Pages:
Release: 2011
Genre:
ISBN:

Recent studies proposed news about future technology growth as the main driver of macroeconomic fluctuations. The identification of these news through stock prices in SVARs has been criticized in the past. Therefore, I propose a series of experiments to test that hypothesis by examining its implications. If business cycles are mainly driven by news then these shocks should be captured by other time series as well. I find that news shocks identified through S & P 500 prices exhibit the same dynamics as news identified through a broader stock price index, patent applications, the relative price of investment or shocks to the real interest rate. The common theme among these identifications is a technological change in productivity that demands time to build, economic activity and natural resources to come into effect. -- Business Cycles ; News Shocks ; Technological Progress

Can News about the Future Drive the Business Cycle?

Can News about the Future Drive the Business Cycle?
Author: Nir Jaimovich
Publisher:
Total Pages: 68
Release: 2006
Genre: Business cycles
ISBN:

Aggregate and sectoral comovement are central features of business cycle data. Therefore, the ability to generate comovement is a natural litmus test for macroeconomic models. But it is a test that most existing models fail. In this paper we propose a unified model that generates both aggregate and sectoral comovement in response to contemporaneous shocks and news shocks about fundamentals. The fundamentals that we consider are aggregate and sectoral TFP shocks as well as investment-specific technical change. The model has three key elements: variable capital utilization, adjustment costs to investment, and a new form of preferences that allow us to parameterize the strength of short-run wealth effects on the labor supply.

What's News in Business Cycles

What's News in Business Cycles
Author: Stephanie Schmitt-Grohe
Publisher:
Total Pages: 64
Release: 2009
Genre: Bayesian statistical decision theory
ISBN:

In this paper, we perform a structural Bayesian estimation of the contribution of anticipated shocks to business cycles in the postwar United States. Our theoretical framework is a real-business-cycle model augmented with four real rigidities: investment adjustment costs, variable capacity utilization, habit formation in consumption, and habit formation in leisure. Business cycles are assumed to be driven by permanent and stationary neutral productivity shocks, permanent investment-specific shocks, and government spending shocks. Each of these shocks is buffeted by four types of structural innovations: unanticipated innovations and innovations anticipated one, two, and three quarters in advance. We find that anticipated shocks account for more than two thirds of predicted aggregate fluctuations. This result is robust to estimating a variant of the model featuring a parametric wealth elasticity of labor supply.

Essays on Expectations-driven Business Cycles

Essays on Expectations-driven Business Cycles
Author: Oscar Pavlov
Publisher:
Total Pages: 164
Release: 2013
Genre: Business cycles
ISBN:

This thesis addresses the role of imperfect competition in business cycles driven by expectations and beliefs about the future state of the economy. It consists of three self-contained papers. The first paper examines the roles of composition of aggregate demand and taste for variety in a real business cycle model with endogenous entries and exits of monopolistically competitive firms. It finds that taste for variety can alone make the economy susceptible to endogenous (sunspot driven) business cycles. Importantly, in light of recent research suggesting that aggregate markups in the U.S. are procyclical, sunspot equilibria emerge with procyclical markups that are within empirically plausible ranges. The second paper considers aggregate markup variations in business cycles driven by news about future total factor productivity. It shows that the addition of endogenous countercyclical markups and investment adjustment costs allows the standard one-sector real business cycle model to generate empirically supported expectations driven fluctuations. The simulated model reproduces the regular features of U.S. aggregate fluctuations. The third paper investigates the role of product variety effects and variable markups in expectations-driven business cycles. It demonstrates that taste for variety and investment adjustment costs allow the otherwise canonical real business cycle model to display quantitatively realistic fluctuations in response to news about future total factor productivity. Moreover, the interaction between price-cost decisions and firm entry and exit allows such business cycles to occur for empirically plausible levels of procyclical markups and variety effects.

Business Cycles

Business Cycles
Author: Wesley Clair Mitchell
Publisher:
Total Pages: 642
Release: 1913
Genre: Business cycles
ISBN: