Navigating External Shocks In Southeast Asias Emerging Markets
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| Author | : Ms. Corinne C Delechat |
| Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
| Total Pages | : 44 |
| Release | : 2024-09-23 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : |
As relatively small open economies, South-East Asian emerging markets (Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines and Thailand or ASEAN-4) are highly susceptible to external shocks—both financial and real—that could induce large capital flows and exchange rate volatility that could lead to foreign exchange market dysfunction. With the exception of Bank Negara Malaysia, ASEAN-4 central banks mostly have flexible inflation-targeting frameworks for monetary policy implementation. Their main policy objectives include medium-term price stability, sustainable economic growth, and financial stability. Central Banks in ASEAN-4 economies have been early pilots in the operationalization of the IMF’s Integrated Policy Framework (IPF) in 2022-23, given their experience in using multiple policy tools besides the monetary policy rate, including macroprudential measures, foreign exchange intervention (FXI), and capital flow management measures, to achieve their multiple objectives. They have welcomed the IPF as a systematic, frictions-based approach to analyze the use of these multiple tools to manage trade-offs across policy objectives. This paper takes stock of the experience from these pilots, both from the perspective of country authorities and of IMF country teams. It aims at distilling key lessons, which could be used to inform broader IPF operationalization. The IPF conceptual framework and a related quantitative model were used to assess policy trade-offs in ASEAN-4 in the event of adverse external shocks. These applications reaffirmed the importance of using monetary policy to address persistent inflationary pressures stemming from real shocks and allowing the exchange rate to act as a shock absorber. However, a complementary use of FXI could improve trade-offs between price, financial, and output stability when economies are faced with large and financial shocks that result in abrupt spikes in uncovered interest rate parity premia resulting in inefficiently tight financial conditions that could hurt growth or risking to de-anchor inflation expectations. The IPF pilots also highlighted some challenges faced when operationalizing IPF principles, notably regarding the assessment of frictions and shocks that might justify the use of FXI. In particular, country teams at times lacked sufficient information to adequately assess the extent of frictions. Moreover, the time-varying nature of IPF frictions and the non-linear effects of shocks make it difficult to assess situations when benefits of a complementary use of FXI would overweigh its costs.
| Author | : Carol Wise |
| Publisher | : Brookings Institution Press |
| Total Pages | : 258 |
| Release | : 2015-03-10 |
| Genre | : Political Science |
| ISBN | : 0815724772 |
This volume documents and explains the remarkable resilience of emerging market nations in East Asia and Latin America when faced with the global financial crisis in 2008-2009. Their quick bounceback from the crisis marked a radical departure from the past, such as when the 1982 debt shocks produced a decade-long recession in Latin America or when the Asian financial crisis dramatically slowed those economies in the late 1990s. Why? This volume suggests that these countries' resistance to the initial financial contagion is a tribute to financial-sector reforms undertaken over the past two decades. The rebound itself was a trade-led phenomenon, favoring the countries that had gone the farthest with macroeconomic restructuring and trade reform. Old labels used to describe "neoliberal versus developmentalist" strategies do not accurately capture the foundations of this recovery. These authors argue that policy learning and institutional reforms adopted in response to previous crises prompted policymakers to combine state and market approaches in effectively coping with the global financial crisis. The nations studied include Korea, China, India, Mexico, Argentina, and Brazil, accompanied by Latin American and Asian regional analyses that bring other emerging markets such as Chile and Peru into the picture. The substantial differences among the nations make their shared success even more remarkable and worthy of investigation. And although 2012 saw slowed growth in some emerging market nations, the authors argue this selective slowing suggests the need for deeper structural reforms in some countries, China and India in particular.
| Author | : Hal Hill |
| Publisher | : Edward Elgar Publishing |
| Total Pages | : 449 |
| Release | : 2013-01-01 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 1781007985 |
'This book provides a coherent and current account of how India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, the Philippines and the People's Republic of China coped with the Asian financial crisis of the 1990s and the recent global economic recession, and how they may address future challenges in maintaining growth in difficult times. It features a valuable overview of issues from a regional perspective, five chapters on general elements and obstacles in development, and individual chapters on the experience of each of the six countries. Every chapter is replete with relevant institutional and statistical data. The volume fills a void in the literature and is highly recommended for graduate students and for economists concerned with contemporary Asia.' – Peter Drake, The University of New England and Australian Catholic University, Australia 'To understand what makes Asia tick in the face of continuing global uncertainty and instability one has to go beyond numbers into the region's psyche and idiosyncrasies. This volume provides an interestingly intrusive and refreshingly insightful analysis of a highly complex phenomenon that defies generalizations as shown by the diversity of individual country experiences.' – Mohamed Ariff, International Centre for Education in Islamic Finance (INCEIF), Malaysia The center of global economic activity is shifting rapidly towards Asia, driven by a combination of the economic dynamism of the People's Republic of China, India, and other middle-income Asian countries, and sluggish growth in the OECD economies. The rapid growth and rising global prominence have raised a range of major challenges for Asia and for the rest of the world. This comprehensive, forward-looking book examines these issues through in-depth studies of major Asian economies and an analysis of the key development policy options. The contributors, leading international authorities in their field, explore cross-cutting thematic issues with special reference to developing Asia. They address a broad range of subjects including: investment and productivity, savings and the savings–investment relationship, financial development, the provision of infrastructure, and governance and institutions. Detailed country studies focusing on the People's Republic of China, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, and Thailand not only provide an analytical narrative for each case study, but also draw attention to the similarities and diversity within the region. This challenging and thought-provoking book will prove an important point of reference for scholars, researchers, and students in the fields of economics, development economics, and Asian studies.
| Author | : Ms.Ana Corbacho |
| Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
| Total Pages | : 311 |
| Release | : 2018-10-02 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 1513558900 |
The first part of the book examines the evolution of monetary policy and prudential frameworks of the ASEAN5, with particular focus on changes since the Asian financial crisis and the more recent period of unconventional monetary policy in advanced economies. The second part of the book looks at policy responses to global financial spillovers. The third and last part of the book elaborates on the challenges ahead for monetary policy, financial stability frameworks, and the deepening of financial markets.
| Author | : World Bank |
| Publisher | : World Bank Publications |
| Total Pages | : 339 |
| Release | : 2021-08-03 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 1464816662 |
The world economy is experiencing a very strong but uneven recovery, with many emerging market and developing economies facing obstacles to vaccination. The global outlook remains uncertain, with major risks around the path of the pandemic and the possibility of financial stress amid large debt loads. Policy makers face a difficult balancing act as they seek to nurture the recovery while safeguarding price stability and fiscal sustainability. A comprehensive set of policies will be required to promote a strong recovery that mitigates inequality and enhances environmental sustainability, ultimately putting economies on a path of green, resilient, and inclusive development. Prominent among the necessary policies are efforts to lower trade costs so that trade can once again become a robust engine of growth. This year marks the 30th anniversary of the Global Economic Prospects. The Global Economic Prospects is a World Bank Group Flagship Report that examines global economic developments and prospects, with a special focus on emerging market and developing economies, on a semiannual basis (in January and June). Each edition includes analytical pieces on topical policy challenges faced by these economies.
| Author | : Bambang Susantono |
| Publisher | : Asian Development Bank |
| Total Pages | : 324 |
| Release | : 2020-09-01 |
| Genre | : Medical |
| ISBN | : 9292623567 |
Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) has unleashed unparalleled challenges. At the same time, it offers a window to rethink Asia’s most fundamental development policies and strategies to address inequality, socioeconomic vulnerability, and environmental challenges. This publication gathers blogs and short policy pieces contributed by ADB staff and experts in an attempt to tackle immediate challenges and prepare for what may lie beyond the horizon. It covers a broad range of development challenges and highlights the crucial role of rapid adoption of digital technologies, adequate supply of quality infrastructure, disaster risk management, and strengthening regional cooperation for a resilient and sustainable future by shaping post-pandemic conditions.
| Author | : M. Ayhan Kose |
| Publisher | : World Bank Publications |
| Total Pages | : 403 |
| Release | : 2021-03-03 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 1464815453 |
The global economy has experienced four waves of rapid debt accumulation over the past 50 years. The first three debt waves ended with financial crises in many emerging market and developing economies. During the current wave, which started in 2010, the increase in debt in these economies has already been larger, faster, and broader-based than in the previous three waves. Current low interest rates mitigate some of the risks associated with high debt. However, emerging market and developing economies are also confronted by weak growth prospects, mounting vulnerabilities, and elevated global risks. A menu of policy options is available to reduce the likelihood that the current debt wave will end in crisis and, if crises do take place, will alleviate their impact.
| Author | : Mr. Dimitri G Demekas |
| Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
| Total Pages | : 45 |
| Release | : 2021-12-17 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 1616356529 |
There are demands on central banks and financial regulators to take on new responsibilities for supporting the transition to a low-carbon economy. Regulators can indeed facilitate the reorientation of financial flows necessary for the transition. But their powers should not be overestimated. Their diagnostic and policy toolkits are still in their infancy. They cannot (and should not) expand their mandate unilaterally. Taking on these new responsibilities can also have potential pitfalls and unintended consequences. Ultimately, financial regulators cannot deliver a low-carbon economy by themselves and should not risk being caught again in the role of ‘the only game in town.’
| Author | : Peter A. Petri |
| Publisher | : |
| Total Pages | : 75 |
| Release | : 2014-02-21 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 9780866382465 |
The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) is strategically significant because of its size, dynamism, and role in the Asian economic and security architectures. This paper examines how ASEAN seeks to strengthen these assets through "centrality" in intraregional and external policy decisions. It recommends a two-speed approach toward centrality in order to maximize regional incomes and benefit all member economies: first, selective engagement by ASEAN members in productive external partnerships and, second, vigorous policies to share gains across the region. This strategy has solid underpinnings in the Kemp-Wan theorem on trade agreements. It would warrant, for example, a Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) agreement with incomplete ASEAN membership, complemented with policies to extend gains across the region. The United States could support this framework by pursuing deep relations with some ASEAN members, while broadly assisting the region's development.
| Author | : Antoinette R. Raquiza |
| Publisher | : Routledge |
| Total Pages | : 226 |
| Release | : 2013-06-17 |
| Genre | : Political Science |
| ISBN | : 1136505024 |
Why do some small, developing countries industrialize and others don’t? What factors account for different economic performance among states that are vulnerable to external shocks, crony capitalism, and political instability? This book argues that the answer lies in the structuring of state power, specifically the way different sets of governing elites – political leaders and economic technocrats – are embedded in political organisations and state institutions, and the way these elites relate to each other in the economic development policy process. Conducting a comparative historical analysis of Thailand and the Philippines, the book argues that the institutional settings of governing elites influence economic outcomes. In Thailand, political power traditionally connects to state institutions in ways that has limited the impact of political turnovers and global downturns - conducive to long-term industrial activities. In contrast, Philippine state power derives from family networks that merge social and political power, suited to fast-moving, short-term commercial interests. In focusing on this political and institutional story, the author analyses the current development dilemmas of countries, weighed down by historical legacies of unstable regimes, dependency, and social conflict, and how they are likely to develop in the future.
