Multivariate Dependence Of Implied Volatilities From Equity Options As Measure Of Systemic Risk
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| Author | : Andreas (Andy) Jobst |
| Publisher | : |
| Total Pages | : 57 |
| Release | : 2013 |
| Genre | : |
| ISBN | : |
This paper presents a methodology to examine the multivariate tail dependence of the implied volatility of equity options as an early warning indicator of systemic risk within the financial sector. Using non-parametric methods of estimating changes in the dependence structure in response to common shocks affecting individual risk profiles, possible linkages during periods of stress are quantifiable while recognizing that large shocks are transmitted across financial markets differently than small shocks. Before and during the initial phase of the financial crisis, we find that systemic risk increased globally as early as February 2007- months before the unraveling of the U.S. subprime mortgage crisis and long before the collapse of Lehman Brothers. The average (multivariate) dependence among a global sample of banks and insurance companies increased by almost 30 percent while joint tail risk declined by about the same order of magnitude, indicating that co-movements of large changes in equity volatility were more likely to occur and responses to extreme shocks became more differentiated as distress escalated. The key policy consideration flowing from our analysis is that complementary measures of joint tail risk at high data frequency are essential to the robust measurement of systemic risk, which could enhance market-based early warning mechanisms as part of macroprudential surveillance.
| Author | : Mr.Andreas A. Jobst |
| Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
| Total Pages | : 93 |
| Release | : 2013-02-27 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 1475557531 |
The recent global financial crisis has forced a re-examination of risk transmission in the financial sector and how it affects financial stability. Current macroprudential policy and surveillance (MPS) efforts are aimed establishing a regulatory framework that helps mitigate the risk from systemic linkages with a view towards enhancing the resilience of the financial sector. This paper presents a forward-looking framework ("Systemic CCA") to measure systemic solvency risk based on market-implied expected losses of financial institutions with practical applications for the financial sector risk management and the system-wide capital assessment in top-down stress testing. The suggested approach uses advanced contingent claims analysis (CCA) to generate aggregate estimates of the joint default risk of multiple institutions as a conditional tail expectation using multivariate extreme value theory (EVT). In addition, the framework also helps quantify the individual contributions to systemic risk and contingent liabilities of the financial sector during times of stress.
| Author | : Andreas Jobst |
| Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
| Total Pages | : 70 |
| Release | : 2012-08-01 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 1475505590 |
Little progress has been made so far in addressing—in a comprehensive way—the externalities caused by impact of the interconnectedness within institutions and markets on funding and market liquidity risk within financial systems. The Systemic Risk-adjusted Liquidity (SRL) model combines option pricing with market information and balance sheet data to generate a probabilistic measure of the frequency and severity of multiple entities experiencing a joint liquidity event. It links a firm’s maturity mismatch between assets and liabilities impacting the stability of its funding with those characteristics of other firms, subject to individual changes in risk profiles and common changes in market conditions. This approach can then be used (i) to quantify an individual institution’s time-varying contribution to system-wide liquidity shortfalls and (ii) to price liquidity risk within a macroprudential framework that, if used to motivate a capital charge or insurance premia, provides incentives for liquidity managers to internalize the systemic risk of their decisions. The model can also accommodate a stress testing approach for institution-specific and/or general funding shocks that generate estimates of systemic liquidity risk (and associated charges) under adverse scenarios.
| Author | : Joseph G. Haubrich |
| Publisher | : University of Chicago Press |
| Total Pages | : 286 |
| Release | : 2013-01-24 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 0226319288 |
In the aftermath of the recent financial crisis, the federal government has pursued significant regulatory reforms, including proposals to measure and monitor systemic risk. However, there is much debate about how this might be accomplished quantitatively and objectively—or whether this is even possible. A key issue is determining the appropriate trade-offs between risk and reward from a policy and social welfare perspective given the potential negative impact of crises. One of the first books to address the challenges of measuring statistical risk from a system-wide persepective, Quantifying Systemic Risk looks at the means of measuring systemic risk and explores alternative approaches. Among the topics discussed are the challenges of tying regulations to specific quantitative measures, the effects of learning and adaptation on the evolution of the market, and the distinction between the shocks that start a crisis and the mechanisms that enable it to grow.
| Author | : Mr.Andreas A. Jobst |
| Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
| Total Pages | : 93 |
| Release | : 2013-02-27 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 1475572786 |
The recent global financial crisis has forced a re-examination of risk transmission in the financial sector and how it affects financial stability. Current macroprudential policy and surveillance (MPS) efforts are aimed establishing a regulatory framework that helps mitigate the risk from systemic linkages with a view towards enhancing the resilience of the financial sector. This paper presents a forward-looking framework ("Systemic CCA") to measure systemic solvency risk based on market-implied expected losses of financial institutions with practical applications for the financial sector risk management and the system-wide capital assessment in top-down stress testing. The suggested approach uses advanced contingent claims analysis (CCA) to generate aggregate estimates of the joint default risk of multiple institutions as a conditional tail expectation using multivariate extreme value theory (EVT). In addition, the framework also helps quantify the individual contributions to systemic risk and contingent liabilities of the financial sector during times of stress.
| Author | : Andreas Jobst |
| Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
| Total Pages | : 70 |
| Release | : 2012-08-01 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 1475548427 |
Little progress has been made so far in addressing—in a comprehensive way—the externalities caused by impact of the interconnectedness within institutions and markets on funding and market liquidity risk within financial systems. The Systemic Risk-adjusted Liquidity (SRL) model combines option pricing with market information and balance sheet data to generate a probabilistic measure of the frequency and severity of multiple entities experiencing a joint liquidity event. It links a firm’s maturity mismatch between assets and liabilities impacting the stability of its funding with those characteristics of other firms, subject to individual changes in risk profiles and common changes in market conditions. This approach can then be used (i) to quantify an individual institution’s time-varying contribution to system-wide liquidity shortfalls and (ii) to price liquidity risk within a macroprudential framework that, if used to motivate a capital charge or insurance premia, provides incentives for liquidity managers to internalize the systemic risk of their decisions. The model can also accommodate a stress testing approach for institution-specific and/or general funding shocks that generate estimates of systemic liquidity risk (and associated charges) under adverse scenarios.
| Author | : John Raymond LaBrosse |
| Publisher | : Edward Elgar Publishing |
| Total Pages | : 529 |
| Release | : 2011-01-01 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 0857933825 |
Incisive, authoritative and thoughtful, this important and timely collection of papers exploring the unresolved issues left by the recent global financial turmoil, will undoubtedly shape the policy responses to come. Interdisciplinary in approach and wide-ranging in jurisdictional scope, it draws together influential commentators, practitioners and regulators, to create a new milestone in the search for the fundamentals of a more stable global financial system.? - Eva Lomnicka, King?s College London, UK ?This book contains a large number of chapters, nearly 30 in all, by acknowledged experts on various aspects of the recent financial crisis. Whichever aspect of this crisis that may interest you, such as bank taxes, deposit insurance, TBTF and how to respond, cross-border issues, and many, many others, you will find chapters that are both authoritative and stimulating in this collection. The editors are to be congratulated not only in their selection of authors but also in the speed with which they have taken them from conference presentation to book chapter.? - Charles Goodhart, London School of Economics, UK Managing Risk in the Financial System makes important and timely contributions to our knowledge and understanding of banking law, financial institution restructuring and related considerations, through the production of an innovative, international and interdisciplinary set of contributions which link law and policy issues surrounding systemic risk and crisis management. The recent financial crisis has exposed both the banking industry and financial system safety net players in many countries to a considerable level of distress as well as economic and reputational damage. These circumstances have heightened the need for policymakers to consider remedial measures under a broad umbrella that encompass inter alia prompt corrective actions, early closure of distressed entities, deposit insurance, bail-outs, state-aid, bank resolution and restructuring techniques. These essays provide an important contribution to research in this area, at a crucial time in the debate around the future financial industry. Contributors
| Author | : Ms.Li L Ong |
| Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
| Total Pages | : 610 |
| Release | : 2014-12-23 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 1484368584 |
The IMF has had extensive involvement in the stress testing of financial systems in its member countries. This book presents the methods and models that have been developed by IMF staff over the years and that can be applied to the gamut of financial systems. An added resource for readers is the companion CD-Rom, which makes available the toolkit with some of the models presented in the book (also located at elibrary.imf.org/page/stress-test-toolkit).
| Author | : Christophe Courbage |
| Publisher | : Springer |
| Total Pages | : 290 |
| Release | : 2016-04-29 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 1137574798 |
In January 1976, Raymond Barre, the first President of The Geneva Association, and Orio Giarini, its first Secretary General, founded The Geneva Papers on Risk and Insurance with the main goal of supporting and encouraging research in the economics of risk and insurance. At that time, research in the field of insurance was still embryonic and insurance was regarded as peripheral social activity. When sustained economic growth gained traction, the function of insurance gradually emerged as a key contributor to economic development. By integrating uncertainty into economic theory and benefiting from the progress of both financial economics and decision theory, research developed further in the field of insurance economics and risk management, and is now prolific. The Geneva Papers on Risk and Insurance undeniably contributed to this evolution and its impact on research in insurance has largely exceeded what its two founding members could have expected. This volume is a special collection of papers celebrating 40 Years of The Geneva Papers on Risk and Insurance. The collection looks back at the storied history of The Geneva Papers on Risk and Insurance and features papers from some of the esteemed authors who have contributed to the journal in its lifetime. This collection of papers highlights just a few of the many themes addressed in the papers published by the journal since it was created. Nevertheless, the selection exemplifies the richness and variety of topics the field of insurance covers.
| Author | : International Monetary Fund |
| Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
| Total Pages | : 33 |
| Release | : 2011-09-16 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 146390357X |
This paper describes the application of contingent claims analysis (CCA) and systemic CCA to the top four commercial banks in Sweden. The balance sheet stress tests for four major banks were complemented with tests based on the CCA framework, a risk-adjusted balance sheet relating bank asset values to equity value, default risk, and bank funding costs. Even though the results show that banks are found to be resilient to shocks, more work on systemic risk models could help analyze systemic risk under stress scenarios.
