Econometrics of Structural Change

Econometrics of Structural Change
Author: Walter Krämer
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Total Pages: 134
Release: 2012-12-06
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 3642484123

Econometric models are made up of assumptions which never exactly match reality. Among the most contested ones is the requirement that the coefficients of an econometric model remain stable over time. Recent years have therefore seen numerous attempts to test for it or to model possible structural change when it can no longer be ignored. This collection of papers from Empirical Economics mirrors part of this development. The point of departure of most studies in this volume is the standard linear regression model Yt = x;fJt + U (t = I, ... , 1), t where notation is obvious and where the index t emphasises the fact that structural change is mostly discussed and encountered in a time series context. It is much less of a problem for cross section data, although many tests apply there as well. The null hypothesis of most tests for structural change is that fJt = fJo for all t, i.e. that the same regression applies to all time periods in the sample and that the disturbances u are well behaved. The well known Chow test for instance assumes t that there is a single structural shift at a known point in time, i.e. that fJt = fJo (t

Time Series Econometrics

Time Series Econometrics
Author: Pierre Perron
Publisher:
Total Pages:
Release: 2018
Genre: Econometrics
ISBN: 9789813237896

Part I. Unit roots and trend breaks -- Part II. Structural change

Forecasting in the Presence of Structural Breaks and Model Uncertainty

Forecasting in the Presence of Structural Breaks and Model Uncertainty
Author: David E. Rapach
Publisher: Emerald Group Publishing
Total Pages: 691
Release: 2008-02-29
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 044452942X

Forecasting in the presence of structural breaks and model uncertainty are active areas of research with implications for practical problems in forecasting. This book addresses forecasting variables from both Macroeconomics and Finance, and considers various methods of dealing with model instability and model uncertainty when forming forecasts.

Economic and Business Forecasting

Economic and Business Forecasting
Author: John E. Silvia
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
Total Pages: 400
Release: 2014-03-10
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1118569547

Discover the secrets to applying simple econometric techniques to improve forecasting Equipping analysts, practitioners, and graduate students with a statistical framework to make effective decisions based on the application of simple economic and statistical methods, Economic and Business Forecasting offers a comprehensive and practical approach to quantifying and accurate forecasting of key variables. Using simple econometric techniques, author John E. Silvia focuses on a select set of major economic and financial variables, revealing how to optimally use statistical software as a template to apply to your own variables of interest. Presents the economic and financial variables that offer unique insights into economic performance Highlights the econometric techniques that can be used to characterize variables Explores the application of SAS software, complete with simple explanations of SAS-code and output Identifies key econometric issues with practical solutions to those problems Presenting the "ten commandments" for economic and business forecasting, this book provides you with a practical forecasting framework you can use for important everyday business applications.

Finite Sample Econometrics

Finite Sample Econometrics
Author: Aman Ullah
Publisher: Oxford University Press
Total Pages: 241
Release: 2004-05-20
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 0198774478

This text provides a comprehensive treatment of finite sample statistics and econometrics. Within this framework, the book discusses the basic analytical tools of finite sample econometrics and explores their applications to models covered in a first year graduate course in econometrics.

Forecasting: principles and practice

Forecasting: principles and practice
Author: Rob J Hyndman
Publisher: OTexts
Total Pages: 380
Release: 2018-05-08
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 0987507117

Forecasting is required in many situations. Stocking an inventory may require forecasts of demand months in advance. Telecommunication routing requires traffic forecasts a few minutes ahead. Whatever the circumstances or time horizons involved, forecasting is an important aid in effective and efficient planning. This textbook provides a comprehensive introduction to forecasting methods and presents enough information about each method for readers to use them sensibly.

The Oxford Handbook of Economic Forecasting

The Oxford Handbook of Economic Forecasting
Author: Michael P. Clements
Publisher: OUP USA
Total Pages: 732
Release: 2011-07-08
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 0195398645

Greater data availability has been coupled with developments in statistical theory and economic theory to allow more elaborate and complicated models to be entertained. These include factor models, DSGE models, restricted vector autoregressions, and non-linear models.

Forecasting Economic Time Series

Forecasting Economic Time Series
Author: Michael Clements
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Total Pages: 402
Release: 1998-10-08
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 9780521634809

This book provides a formal analysis of the models, procedures, and measures of economic forecasting with a view to improving forecasting practice. David Hendry and Michael Clements base the analyses on assumptions pertinent to the economies to be forecast, viz. a non-constant, evolving economic system, and econometric models whose form and structure are unknown a priori. The authors find that conclusions which can be established formally for constant-parameter stationary processes and correctly-specified models often do not hold when unrealistic assumptions are relaxed. Despite the difficulty of proceeding formally when models are mis-specified in unknown ways for non-stationary processes that are subject to structural breaks, Hendry and Clements show that significant insights can be gleaned. For example, a formal taxonomy of forecasting errors can be developed, the role of causal information clarified, intercept corrections re-established as a method for achieving robustness against forms of structural change, and measures of forecast accuracy re-interpreted.

SAS for Forecasting Time Series, Third Edition

SAS for Forecasting Time Series, Third Edition
Author: John C. Brocklebank, Ph.D.
Publisher: SAS Institute
Total Pages: 616
Release: 2018-03-14
Genre: Computers
ISBN: 1629605441

To use statistical methods and SAS applications to forecast the future values of data taken over time, you need only follow this thoroughly updated classic on the subject. With this third edition of SAS for Forecasting Time Series, intermediate-to-advanced SAS users—such as statisticians, economists, and data scientists—can now match the most sophisticated forecasting methods to the most current SAS applications. Starting with fundamentals, this new edition presents methods for modeling both univariate and multivariate data taken over time. From the well-known ARIMA models to unobserved components, methods that span the range from simple to complex are discussed and illustrated. Many of the newer methods are variations on the basic ARIMA structures. Completely updated, this new edition includes fresh, interesting business situations and data sets, and new sections on these up-to-date statistical methods: ARIMA models Vector autoregressive models Exponential smoothing models Unobserved component and state-space models Seasonal adjustment Spectral analysis Focusing on application, this guide teaches a wide range of forecasting techniques by example. The examples provide the statistical underpinnings necessary to put the methods into practice. The following up-to-date SAS applications are covered in this edition: The ARIMA procedure The AUTOREG procedure The VARMAX procedure The ESM procedure The UCM and SSM procedures The X13 procedure The SPECTRA procedure SAS Forecast Studio Each SAS application is presented with explanation of its strengths, weaknesses, and best uses. Even users of automated forecasting systems will benefit from this knowledge of what is done and why. Moreover, the accompanying examples can serve as templates that you easily adjust to fit your specific forecasting needs. This book is part of the SAS Press program.

Econometric Theory and Practice

Econometric Theory and Practice
Author: P. C. B. Phillips
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Total Pages: 390
Release: 2006-01-09
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 9780521807234

The essays in this book explore important theoretical and applied advances in econometrics.