Mismeasured Personal Saving And The Permanent Income Hypothesis
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Dissecting Saving Dynamics
Author | : Mr.Christopher Carroll |
Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
Total Pages | : 47 |
Release | : 2012-09-01 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 1475505698 |
We argue that the U.S. personal saving rate’s long stability (from the 1960s through the early 1980s), subsequent steady decline (1980s - 2007), and recent substantial increase (2008 - 2011) can all be interpreted using a parsimonious ‘buffer stock’ model of optimal consumption in the presence of labor income uncertainty and credit constraints. Saving in the model is affected by the gap between ‘target’ and actual wealth, with the target wealth determined by credit conditions and uncertainty. An estimated structural version of the model suggests that increased credit availability accounts for most of the saving rate’s long-term decline, while fluctuations in net wealth and uncertainty capture the bulk of the business-cycle variation.
The Oxford Handbook of Economic Forecasting
Author | : Michael P. Clements |
Publisher | : Oxford University Press |
Total Pages | : 732 |
Release | : 2011-06-29 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 0199875510 |
This Handbook provides up-to-date coverage of both new and well-established fields in the sphere of economic forecasting. The chapters are written by world experts in their respective fields, and provide authoritative yet accessible accounts of the key concepts, subject matter, and techniques in a number of diverse but related areas. It covers the ways in which the availability of ever more plentiful data and computational power have been used in forecasting, in terms of the frequency of observations, the number of variables, and the use of multiple data vintages. Greater data availability has been coupled with developments in statistical theory and economic analysis to allow more elaborate and complicated models to be entertained; the volume provides explanations and critiques of these developments. These include factor models, DSGE models, restricted vector autoregressions, and non-linear models, as well as models for handling data observed at mixed frequencies, high-frequency data, multiple data vintages, methods for forecasting when there are structural breaks, and how breaks might be forecast. Also covered are areas which are less commonly associated with economic forecasting, such as climate change, health economics, long-horizon growth forecasting, and political elections. Econometric forecasting has important contributions to make in these areas along with how their developments inform the mainstream.
National Saving and Economic Performance
Author | : B. Douglas Bernheim |
Publisher | : University of Chicago Press |
Total Pages | : 408 |
Release | : 1991-05 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 9780226044040 |
"... Papers presented at a conference held at the Stouffer Wailea Hotel, Maui, Hawaii, January 6-7, 1989. ... part of the Research on Taxation program of the National Bureau of Economic Research." -- p. ix.
Understanding Consumption
Author | : Angus Deaton |
Publisher | : Oxford University Press |
Total Pages | : 260 |
Release | : 1992 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 9780198288244 |
An overview of the saving and consumption patterns of households
The Economics of Saving and Growth
Author | : Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel |
Publisher | : Cambridge University Press |
Total Pages | : 213 |
Release | : 1999-05-13 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 0521632951 |
A look at major research and policy issues surrounding saving across the world, first published in 1999.