Macroeconomic Developments and Prospects in Low-Income Developing Countries - 2016

Macroeconomic Developments and Prospects in Low-Income Developing Countries - 2016
Author: International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, & Review Department
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 81
Release: 2016-11-23
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1498345018

This paper is the third in a series assessing macroeconomic developments and prospects in low-income developing countries (LIDCs). The first of these papers (IMF, 2014a) examined trends during 2000–2014, a period of sustained strong growth across most LIDCs. The second paper (IMF, 2015a) focused on the impact of the drop in global commodity prices since mid-2014 on LIDCs—a story with losers (countries dependent on commodity exports, notably fuel) and winners (countries with a more diverse export base, where growth remained robust). The overarching theme in this paper’s assessment of the macroeconomic conjuncture among LIDCs is that of incomplete adjustment to the new world of “lower for long” commodity prices, with many commodity exporters still far from a sustainable macroeconomic trajectory (Chapter 1). The analysis of risks and vulnerabilities focuses on financial sector stresses and medium-term fiscal risks, pointing to the actions, including capacity building, needed to manage and contain these challenges over time (Chapter 2). With 2016 the first year of the march towards the 2030 development goals, the paper also looks at how infrastructure investment can be accelerated in LIDCs, given that weaknesses in public infrastructure (such as energy, transportation systems) in LIDCs are widely seen as a key constraint on medium-term growth potential (Chapter 3). With the sharp adjustment in commodity prices now into its third year, some of the key messages of the paper are familiar: a) many commodity exporters, notably fuel producers, remain under significant economic stress, with sluggish growth, large fiscal imbalances, and weakened foreign reserve positions; b) countries with a more diversified export base are generally doing well, although several have been hit by declines in remittances, conflict/natural disasters, and the contractionary impact of macroeconomic stabilization programs; c) widening fiscal imbalances, in both commodity and diversified exporters, have resulted in rising debt levels, with severe financing stress emerging in some cases; and d) financial sector stresses have emerged in many LIDCs, with expectations that these strains will increase in many commodity exporters over the next 12–18 months. Key messages on financial sector oversight, on medium-term fiscal risks, and on tackling infrastructure gaps are flagged below. Read Executive Summary in: Arabic; Chinese; French; Spanish

Macroeconomic Developments in Low-Income Developing Countries

Macroeconomic Developments in Low-Income Developing Countries
Author: International Monetary Fund
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 70
Release: 2014-09-18
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1498342752

This report examines macroeconomic developments and related vulnerabilities in low-income developing countries (LIDCs)—a group of 60 countries that have markedly different economic features to higher income countries and are eligible for concessional financing from both the IMF and the World Bank. Collectively, they account for about one-fifth of the world’s Population.

World Economic Outlook, April 2016

World Economic Outlook, April 2016
Author: International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 230
Release: 2016-04-12
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1498398588

Major macroeconomic realignments are affecting prospects differentially across the world’s countries and regions. The April 2016 WEO examines the causes and implications of these realignments—including the slowdown and rebalancing in China, a further decline in commodity prices, a related slowdown in investment and trade, and declining capital flows to emerging market and developing economies—which are generating substantial uncertainty and affecting the outlook for the global economy. Additionally, analytical chapters examine the slowdown in capital flows to emerging market economies since their 2010 peak—its main characteristics, how it compares with past slowdowns, the factors that are driving it, and whether exchange rate flexibility has changed the dynamics of the capital inflow cycle—and assess whether product and labor market reforms can improve the economic outlook in advanced economies, looking at the recent evolution and scope for further reform, the channels through which reforms affect economic activity under strong versus weak economic conditions, reforms’ short- to medium-term macroeconomic effects, and sequencing of reforms and coordination with other policies to maximize their potential quantitative economic benefits. A special feature analyzes in depth the energy transition in an era of low fossil fuel prices.

In Search of Information: Use of Google Trends’ Data to Narrow Information Gaps for Low-income Developing Countries

In Search of Information: Use of Google Trends’ Data to Narrow Information Gaps for Low-income Developing Countries
Author: Mr.Futoshi Narita
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 51
Release: 2018-12-14
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1484390172

Timely data availability is a long-standing challenge in policy-making and analysis for low-income developing countries. This paper explores the use of Google Trends’ data to narrow such information gaps and finds that online search frequencies about a country significantly correlate with macroeconomic variables (e.g., real GDP, inflation, capital flows), conditional on other covariates. The correlation with real GDP is stronger than that of nighttime lights, whereas the opposite is found for emerging market economies. The search frequencies also improve out-of-sample forecasting performance albeit slightly, demonstrating their potential to facilitate timely assessments of economic conditions in low-income developing countries.

Global Economic Prospects, June 2015

Global Economic Prospects, June 2015
Author: The World Bank
Publisher: World Bank Publications
Total Pages: 199
Release: 2015-06-22
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1464804850

Global growth is expected to be 2.8 percent in 2015, but is expected to pick up to 3.2 percent in 2016-17. Growth in developing countries and some high-income countries is set to disappoint again this year. The prospect of rising borrowing costs will compound the challenges many developing countries are facing as they adapt to an era of low commodity prices. Risks to this outlook remain tilted to the downside. This edition of Global Economic Prospects includes two Special Features that analyze the policy challenges raised by the two transitions in developing countries: the risks associated with the first U.S. central bank interest rate increase since 2006 and the implications of persistently low commodity prices for low-income countries. Global Economic Prospects is a World Bank Group Flagship Report that examines global economic developments and prospects, with a special focus on developing countries, on a semiannual basis (in January and June). The January edition includes in-depth analyses of topical policy challenges faced by developing countries while the June edition contains shorter analytical pieces.

Global Economic Prospects, January 2016

Global Economic Prospects, January 2016
Author: World Bank
Publisher:
Total Pages: 0
Release: 2016
Genre: Developing countries
ISBN: 9781464806759

"Global growth disappointed once again in 2015. A further deceleration of activity in key emerging and developing economies overshadowed a modest recovery in major high-income countries, amid weakening commodity prices, global trade, and capital flows. Going forward, global growth should pick up at an appreciably slower pace than previously projected. Risks to the outlook remain markedly tilted to the downside. In addition to discussing global and regional economic developments and prospects, this edition of Global Economic Prospects includes a comprehensive analysis of spillovers from a slowdown in major emerging markets to other developing economies, as well as two essays on key topical issues: the potential macroeconomic implications of the Trans-Pacific Partnership and the links between exchange rate regimes and capital controls in developing countries. It also includes a special focus on mounting vulnerabilities in low-income countries before major resource discoveries come into production. Global Economic Prospects is a World Bank Group Flagship Report that examines global economic developments and prospects, with a special focus on emerging markets and developing countries, on a semiannual basis (in January and June). The January edition includes in-depth analyses of topical policy challenges faced by developing countries while the June edition contains shorter analytical pieces."--Back cover.

Global Economic Prospects, June 2015

Global Economic Prospects, June 2015
Author: The World Bank
Publisher: World Bank Publications
Total Pages: 194
Release: 2015-06-22
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 9781464804854

Global growth is expected to be 2.8 percent in 2015, but is expected to pick up to 3.2 percent in 2016-17. Growth in developing countries and some high-income countries is set to disappoint again this year. The prospect of rising borrowing costs will compound the challenges many developing countries are facing as they adapt to an era of low commodity prices. Risks to this outlook remain tilted to the downside. This edition of Global Economic Prospects includes two Special Features that analyze the policy challenges raised by the two transitions in developing countries: the risks associated with the first U.S. central bank interest rate increase since 2006 and the implications of persistently low commodity prices for low-income countries. Global Economic Prospects is a World Bank Group Flagship Report that examines global economic developments and prospects, with a special focus on developing countries, on a semiannual basis (in January and June). The January edition includes in-depth analyses of topical policy challenges faced by developing countries while the June edition contains shorter analytical pieces.

Macroeconomic Developments and Prospects in Low-Income Developing Countries

Macroeconomic Developments and Prospects in Low-Income Developing Countries
Author: International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, & Review Department
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 76
Release: 2018-03-22
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1498307299

"This paper is the fourth in a series that examines macroeconomic developments and prospects in Low Income Developing Countries (LIDCs). LIDCs are Fund member countries where gross national income (GNI) per capita lies below a threshold level and where external financial linkages and socioeconomic indicators have not lifted them into emerging market status. There are 59 countries in the LIDC grouping, accounting for about one-fifth of the world’s population and 4 percent of global output. The paper examines macroeconomic trends across LIDCs in recent years, contrasting key features of the current situation with the period prior to the 2014 decline in commodity prices. Particular attention is given to the evolution of fiscal positions and public debt levels, including detailed analysis of the drivers of debt accumulation and the current severity of debt vulnerabilities. The analysis is grounded in, and draws on, the analysis and databases used to compile the World Economic Outlook: this report drills down into the WEO database to look in detail at the experience of LIDCs."

Macroeconomic Developments and Prospects in Low-Income Developing Countries—2019

Macroeconomic Developments and Prospects in Low-Income Developing Countries—2019
Author: International Monetary Fund
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 72
Release: 2019-12-13
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1513522744

This paper is the fifth in a series that examines macroeconomic developments and prospects in low-income developing countries (LIDCs). LIDCs are a group of 59 IMF member countries primarily defined by income per capita below a threshold level. LIDCs contain one fifth of the world’s population—1.5 billion people—but account for only 4 percent of global output. The first chapter of the paper discusses recent macroeconomic developments and trends across LIDCs and, using growth decompositions, explores the key drivers of growth performance in LIDCs. A second chapter examines the challenges faced by LIDCs in implementing a value-added tax system, generally seen as a key component of a strong national tax system. The third chapter discusses how financial safety nets can be appropriately tailored to the specific needs of LIDCs, recognizing that an effective safety net is important for ensuring financial stability and underpinning public confidence in the financial system, thereby promoting financial intermediation.