Learning the Long-run Asset Pricing Model

Learning the Long-run Asset Pricing Model
Author: Francisco Vazquez-Grande
Publisher:
Total Pages: 83
Release: 2012
Genre:
ISBN: 9781267835536

I document business-cycle properties and a significant increase in the average level of risk-prices in the presence of learning in economies with homogeneous agents, and in the presence of agents with heterogeneous beliefs based on learning. I solve a model with long-run risk where both, the level and persistence of expected consumption growth are unobserved. I introduce a new methodology to quantify the effects of learning about parameter uncertainty and latent variables. The average historical maximum Sharpe ratios increases significantly in the learning economy when compared to the full-information case, and the difference between the subjective risk-prices of learning and non-learning agents is shown to be counter-cyclical. The agent facing parameter uncertainty choose state variables that are sufficient statistics of the learning problems and, conditional on her information set, forms posterior distributions of the states and future consumption growth. To reduce the complexity of optimization, I present a novel numerical approach that approximates the agent's continuation-value by nesting the solutions of problems with different information sets.

Asset Pricing

Asset Pricing
Author: John H. Cochrane
Publisher: Princeton University Press
Total Pages: 560
Release: 2009-04-11
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1400829135

Winner of the prestigious Paul A. Samuelson Award for scholarly writing on lifelong financial security, John Cochrane's Asset Pricing now appears in a revised edition that unifies and brings the science of asset pricing up to date for advanced students and professionals. Cochrane traces the pricing of all assets back to a single idea--price equals expected discounted payoff--that captures the macro-economic risks underlying each security's value. By using a single, stochastic discount factor rather than a separate set of tricks for each asset class, Cochrane builds a unified account of modern asset pricing. He presents applications to stocks, bonds, and options. Each model--consumption based, CAPM, multifactor, term structure, and option pricing--is derived as a different specification of the discounted factor. The discount factor framework also leads to a state-space geometry for mean-variance frontiers and asset pricing models. It puts payoffs in different states of nature on the axes rather than mean and variance of return, leading to a new and conveniently linear geometrical representation of asset pricing ideas. Cochrane approaches empirical work with the Generalized Method of Moments, which studies sample average prices and discounted payoffs to determine whether price does equal expected discounted payoff. He translates between the discount factor, GMM, and state-space language and the beta, mean-variance, and regression language common in empirical work and earlier theory. The book also includes a review of recent empirical work on return predictability, value and other puzzles in the cross section, and equity premium puzzles and their resolution. Written to be a summary for academics and professionals as well as a textbook, this book condenses and advances recent scholarship in financial economics.

Regime Learning and Asset Prices in a Long-Run Model

Regime Learning and Asset Prices in a Long-Run Model
Author: Binbin Deng
Publisher:
Total Pages: 31
Release: 2017
Genre:
ISBN:

This paper tries to draw on the relative merits of both the jump risk models and the long-run risk models with a linkage established by Bayesian learning, in an attempt to improve both asset pricing approaches in producing a better mechanism for understanding asset prices regularities.Rather than treating event risk as direct jumps in the level of aggregate income, we model it as changes in the underlying state of the world, the economic regimes, which affect aggregate consumption and dividend flows through their growth and volatility's dependence on the state.Realistically, information about the state transition is imperfect in this representative agent endowment economy and agents with recursive utility perform Bayesian learning to form and update beliefs about the conditional state arrival in order to make optimal long-run consumption investment decisions. This new learning component to the consumption-based paradigm will generate novel pricing implications through inducing extra covariance to be priced. Specifically, besides the aggregate uncertainty stemming from jump risk exposure, the presence of imperfect learning behavior also generates individual ambiguity. We shall see that such dual channels can help better explain some asset pricing regularities observed, e.g. the dual puzzles, predictability issues, time-varying conditional moments, etc., and shed some new light on the long-run cash flow news approach in asset pricing.

Empirical Asset Pricing

Empirical Asset Pricing
Author: Wayne Ferson
Publisher: MIT Press
Total Pages: 497
Release: 2019-03-12
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 0262039370

An introduction to the theory and methods of empirical asset pricing, integrating classical foundations with recent developments. This book offers a comprehensive advanced introduction to asset pricing, the study of models for the prices and returns of various securities. The focus is empirical, emphasizing how the models relate to the data. The book offers a uniquely integrated treatment, combining classical foundations with more recent developments in the literature and relating some of the material to applications in investment management. It covers the theory of empirical asset pricing, the main empirical methods, and a range of applied topics. The book introduces the theory of empirical asset pricing through three main paradigms: mean variance analysis, stochastic discount factors, and beta pricing models. It describes empirical methods, beginning with the generalized method of moments (GMM) and viewing other methods as special cases of GMM; offers a comprehensive review of fund performance evaluation; and presents selected applied topics, including a substantial chapter on predictability in asset markets that covers predicting the level of returns, volatility and higher moments, and predicting cross-sectional differences in returns. Other chapters cover production-based asset pricing, long-run risk models, the Campbell-Shiller approximation, the debate on covariance versus characteristics, and the relation of volatility to the cross-section of stock returns. An extensive reference section captures the current state of the field. The book is intended for use by graduate students in finance and economics; it can also serve as a reference for professionals.

Multi-moment Asset Allocation and Pricing Models

Multi-moment Asset Allocation and Pricing Models
Author: Emmanuel Jurczenko
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
Total Pages: 258
Release: 2006-10-02
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 0470057998

While mainstream financial theories and applications assume that asset returns are normally distributed and individual preferences are quadratic, the overwhelming empirical evidence shows otherwise. Indeed, most of the asset returns exhibit “fat-tails” distributions and investors exhibit asymmetric preferences. These empirical findings lead to the development of a new area of research dedicated to the introduction of higher order moments in portfolio theory and asset pricing models. Multi-moment asset pricing is a revolutionary new way of modeling time series in finance which allows various degrees of long-term memory to be generated. It allows risk and prices of risk to vary through time enabling the accurate valuation of long-lived assets. This book presents the state-of-the art in multi-moment asset allocation and pricing models and provides many new developments in a single volume, collecting in a unified framework theoretical results and applications previously scattered throughout the financial literature. The topics covered in this comprehensive volume include: four-moment individual risk preferences, mathematics of the multi-moment efficient frontier, coherent asymmetric risks measures, hedge funds asset allocation under higher moments, time-varying specifications of (co)moments and multi-moment asset pricing models with homogeneous and heterogeneous agents. Written by leading academics, Multi-moment Asset Allocation and Pricing Models offers a unique opportunity to explore the latest findings in this new field of research.

The Fiscal Theory of the Price Level

The Fiscal Theory of the Price Level
Author: John H. Cochrane
Publisher: Princeton University Press
Total Pages: 585
Release: 2023-01-17
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 0691243247

A comprehensive account of how government deficits and debt drive inflation Where do inflation and deflation ultimately come from? The fiscal theory of the price level offers a simple answer: Prices adjust so that the real value of government debt equals the present value of taxes less spending. Inflation breaks out when people don’t expect the government to fully repay its debts. The fiscal theory is well suited to today’s economy: Financial innovation undermines money demand, and central banks don’t control the money supply or aggressively change interest rates, invalidating classic theories, while large debts and deficits threaten inflation and constrain monetary policy. This book presents a comprehensive account of this important theory from one of its leading developers and advocates. John Cochrane aims to make fiscal theory useful as a conceptual framework and modeling tool, and for analyzing history and policy. He merges fiscal theory with standard models in which central banks set interest rates, giving a novel account of monetary policy. He generalizes the theory to explain data and make realistic predictions. For example, inflation decreases in recessions despite deficits because discount rates fall, raising the value of debt; specifying that governments promise to partially repay debt avoids classic puzzles and allows the theory to apply at all times, not just during periods of high inflation. Cochrane offers an extensive rethinking of monetary doctrines and institutions through the eyes of fiscal theory, and analyzes the era of zero interest rates and post-pandemic inflation. Filled with research by Cochrane and others, The Fiscal Theory of the Price Level offers important new insights about fiscal and monetary policy.

Parameter Learning in General Equilibrium

Parameter Learning in General Equilibrium
Author: Pierre Collin-Dufresne
Publisher:
Total Pages: 0
Release: 2013
Genre: Economics
ISBN:

Parameter learning strongly amplifies the impact of macro shocks on marginal utility when the representative agent has a preference for early resolution of uncertainty. This occurs as rational belief updating generates subjective long-run consumption risks. We consider general equilibrium models with unknown parameters governing either long-run economic growth, the variance of shocks, rare events, or model selection. Overall, parameter learning generates long-lasting, quantitatively significant additional macro risks that help explain standard asset pricing puzzles.

Financial Markets and the Real Economy

Financial Markets and the Real Economy
Author: John H. Cochrane
Publisher: Now Publishers Inc
Total Pages: 117
Release: 2005
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1933019158

Financial Markets and the Real Economy reviews the current academic literature on the macroeconomics of finance.

Financial Asset Pricing Theory

Financial Asset Pricing Theory
Author: Claus Munk
Publisher: Oxford University Press, USA
Total Pages: 598
Release: 2013-04-18
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 0199585490

The book presents models for the pricing of financial assets such as stocks, bonds, and options. The models are formulated and analyzed using concepts and techniques from mathematics and probability theory. It presents important classic models and some recent 'state-of-the-art' models that outperform the classics.