Leading Indicators Of Currency Crises
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| Author | : Graciela Laura Kaminsky |
| Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
| Total Pages | : 44 |
| Release | : 1997-07-01 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 1451955863 |
This paper examines the empirical evidence on currency crises and proposes a specific early warning system. This system involves monitoring the evolution of several indicators that tend to exhibit an unusual behavior in the periods preceding a crisis. When an indicator exceeds a certain threshold value, this is interpreted as a warning “signal” that a currency crisis may take place within the following 24 months. The variables that have the best track record within this approach include exports, deviations of the real exchange rate from trend, the ratio of broad money to gross international reserves, output, and equity prices.
| Author | : Müge Ant |
| Publisher | : World Bank Publications |
| Total Pages | : 48 |
| Release | : 2002 |
| Genre | : |
| ISBN | : |
| Author | : Mr.Stijn Claessens |
| Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
| Total Pages | : 66 |
| Release | : 2013-01-30 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 1475561008 |
This paper reviews the literature on financial crises focusing on three specific aspects. First, what are the main factors explaining financial crises? Since many theories on the sources of financial crises highlight the importance of sharp fluctuations in asset and credit markets, the paper briefly reviews theoretical and empirical studies on developments in these markets around financial crises. Second, what are the major types of financial crises? The paper focuses on the main theoretical and empirical explanations of four types of financial crises—currency crises, sudden stops, debt crises, and banking crises—and presents a survey of the literature that attempts to identify these episodes. Third, what are the real and financial sector implications of crises? The paper briefly reviews the short- and medium-run implications of crises for the real economy and financial sector. It concludes with a summary of the main lessons from the literature and future research directions.
| Author | : M. Ayhan Kose |
| Publisher | : World Bank Publications |
| Total Pages | : 403 |
| Release | : 2021-03-03 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 1464815453 |
The global economy has experienced four waves of rapid debt accumulation over the past 50 years. The first three debt waves ended with financial crises in many emerging market and developing economies. During the current wave, which started in 2010, the increase in debt in these economies has already been larger, faster, and broader-based than in the previous three waves. Current low interest rates mitigate some of the risks associated with high debt. However, emerging market and developing economies are also confronted by weak growth prospects, mounting vulnerabilities, and elevated global risks. A menu of policy options is available to reduce the likelihood that the current debt wave will end in crisis and, if crises do take place, will alleviate their impact.
| Author | : Morris Goldstein |
| Publisher | : Peterson Institute |
| Total Pages | : 166 |
| Release | : 2000 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 9780881322378 |
This study reviews the literature on the origins of currency and banking crises. It presents empirical tests on the performance of alternative early-warning indicators for emerging-market economies. The book also identifies crisis-threshold values for early-warning indicators.
| Author | : Ms. Sally Chen |
| Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
| Total Pages | : 79 |
| Release | : 2021-04-29 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 1513582305 |
Can the upturns and downturns in financial variables serve as early warning indicators of banking crises? Using data from 59 advanced and emerging economies, we show that financial overheating can be detected in real time. Equity prices and output gap are the best leading indicators in advanced markets; in emerging markets, these are equity and property prices and credit gap. Moreover, aggregating this information flags financial crisis many years before the crisis. Lastly, we find that the length of financial cycles is of medium-term frequency, calling into question the longer frequency widely used in the estimation of countercyclical capital buffers.
| Author | : Mr.Gian Milesi-Ferretti |
| Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
| Total Pages | : 45 |
| Release | : 1998-06-01 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 1451952422 |
This paper studies large reductions in current account deficits and exchange rate depreciations in low- and middle-income countries. It examines which factors help predict the occurrence of a reversal or a currency crisis, and how these events affect macroeconomic performance. Both domestic factors, such as the low reserves, and external factors, such as unfavorable terms of trade, are found to trigger reversals and currency crises. The two types of events are, however, distinct; an exchange rate crash is associated with a fall in output growth and a recovery thereafter, while for reversals there is no systematic evidence of a growth slowdown.
| Author | : Graciela Kaminsky |
| Publisher | : |
| Total Pages | : 43 |
| Release | : 2006 |
| Genre | : |
| ISBN | : |
This paper examines the empirical evidence on currency crises and proposes a specific early warning system. This system involves monitoring the evolution of several indicators that tend to exhibit an unusual behavior in the periods preceding a crisis. When an indicator exceeds a certain threshold value, this is interpreted as a warning quot;signalquot; that a currency crisis may take place within the following 24 months. The variables that have the best track record within this approach include exports, deviations of the real exchange rate from trend, the ratio of broad money to gross international reserves, output, and equity prices.
| Author | : Carmen M. Reinhart |
| Publisher | : Princeton University Press |
| Total Pages | : 513 |
| Release | : 2011-08-07 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 0691152640 |
An empirical investigation of financial crises during the last 800 years.
| Author | : Mr.Stijn Claessens |
| Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
| Total Pages | : 754 |
| Release | : 2014-02-19 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 1484355261 |
The lingering effects of the economic crisis are still visible—this shows a clear need to improve our understanding of financial crises. This book surveys a wide range of crises, including banking, balance of payments, and sovereign debt crises. It begins with an overview of the various types of crises and introduces a comprehensive database of crises. Broad lessons on crisis prevention and management, as well as the short-term economic effects of crises, recessions, and recoveries, are discussed.
