Labor Force Participation and Monetary Policy in the Wake of the Great Recession

Labor Force Participation and Monetary Policy in the Wake of the Great Recession
Author: Christopher J. Erceg
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 60
Release: 2013-12-16
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1484301455

In this paper, we provide compelling evidence that cyclical factors account for the bulk of the post-2007 decline in the U.S. labor force participation rate. We then proceed to formulate a stylized New Keynesian model in which labor force participation is essentially acyclical during “normal times” (that is, in response to small or transitory shocks) but drops markedly in the wake of a large and persistent aggregate demand shock. Finally, we show that these considerations can have potentially crucial implications for the design of monetary policy, especially under circumstances in which adjustments to the short-term interest rate are constrained by the zero lower bound.

Labor Force Participation and Monetary Policy in the Wake of the Great Recession

Labor Force Participation and Monetary Policy in the Wake of the Great Recession
Author: Christopher J. Erceg
Publisher:
Total Pages: 53
Release: 2013
Genre: Monetary policy
ISBN:

In this paper, we provide compelling evidence that cyclical factors account for the bulk of the post-2007 decline in the U.S. labor force participation rate. We then proceed to formulate a stylized New Keynesian model in which labor force participation is essentially acyclical during "normal times" (that is, in response to small or transitory shocks) but drops markedly in the wake of a large and persistent aggregate demand shock. Finally, we show that these considerations can have potentially crucial implications for the design of monetary policy, especially under circumstances in which adjustments to the short-term interest rate are constrained by the zero lower bound.

Labor Force Participation and Monetary Policy in the Wake of the Great Recession

Labor Force Participation and Monetary Policy in the Wake of the Great Recession
Author: Christopher J. Erceg
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 60
Release: 2013-12-16
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1484302605

In this paper, we provide compelling evidence that cyclical factors account for the bulk of the post-2007 decline in the U.S. labor force participation rate. We then proceed to formulate a stylized New Keynesian model in which labor force participation is essentially acyclical during “normal times” (that is, in response to small or transitory shocks) but drops markedly in the wake of a large and persistent aggregate demand shock. Finally, we show that these considerations can have potentially crucial implications for the design of monetary policy, especially under circumstances in which adjustments to the short-term interest rate are constrained by the zero lower bound.

Labor Force Participation

Labor Force Participation
Author: Federal Reserve Federal Reserve Board
Publisher: CreateSpace
Total Pages: 70
Release: 2015-01-15
Genre:
ISBN: 9781507564905

More than five years after the Great Recession ended, the labor market has, by many metrics, finally shown substantial improvement. The unemployment rate is now nearly 4 percentage points below the peak reached in late 2009, and the number of nonfarm payroll jobs has returned to pre-recession levels. However, one lingering concern is the ongoing decline in the labor force participation rate and the concomitant absence of a significant rise in the percentage of the working-age population who are employed. In particular, the labor force participation rate has fallen from about 66 percent of the population in 2007 to about 63 percent over the first half of 2014, while the employment-to-population ratio currently stands at 59 percent, only about ½ percentage point above its low point in the wake of the recession.

The Labor Force Participation Rate

The Labor Force Participation Rate
Author: Darrel Graves
Publisher:
Total Pages: 127
Release: 2014-01-01
Genre: BUSINESS & ECONOMICS
ISBN: 9781634634175

In 2008, the U.S. economy collided with two historic forces. The first force was the Great Recession, the most severe economic crisis in a generation. While the economy has recovered considerably over the last five years, there is little doubt that more work remains to address some of the challenges left in the wake of the Great Recession. This book analyzes the evolution of the labor force participation rate since late 2007 and attempts to quantify the effects of these various forces.

The Great Recession

The Great Recession
Author: David B. Grusky
Publisher: Russell Sage Foundation
Total Pages: 342
Release: 2011-10-01
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1610447506

Officially over in 2009, the Great Recession is now generally acknowledged to be the most devastating global economic crisis since the Great Depression. As a result of the crisis, the United States lost more than 7.5 million jobs, and the unemployment rate doubled—peaking at more than 10 percent. The collapse of the housing market and subsequent equity market fluctuations delivered a one-two punch that destroyed trillions of dollars in personal wealth and made many Americans far less financially secure. Still reeling from these early shocks, the U.S. economy will undoubtedly take years to recover. Less clear, however, are the social effects of such economic hardship on a U.S. population accustomed to long periods of prosperity. How are Americans responding to these hard times? The Great Recession is the first authoritative assessment of how the aftershocks of the recession are affecting individuals and families, jobs, earnings and poverty, political and social attitudes, lifestyle and consumption practices, and charitable giving. Focused on individual-level effects rather than institutional causes, The Great Recession turns to leading experts to examine whether the economic aftermath caused by the recession is transforming how Americans live their lives, what they believe in, and the institutions they rely on. Contributors Michael Hout, Asaf Levanon, and Erin Cumberworth show how job loss during the recession—the worst since the 1980s—hit less-educated workers, men, immigrants, and factory and construction workers the hardest. Millions of lost industrial jobs are likely never to be recovered and where new jobs are appearing, they tend to be either high-skill positions or low-wage employment—offering few opportunities for the middle-class. Edward Wolff, Lindsay Owens, and Esra Burak examine the effects of the recession on housing and wealth for the very poor and the very rich. They find that while the richest Americans experienced the greatest absolute wealth loss, their resources enabled them to weather the crisis better than the young families, African Americans, and the middle class, who experienced the most disproportionate loss—including mortgage delinquencies, home foreclosures, and personal bankruptcies. Lane Kenworthy and Lindsay Owens ask whether this recession is producing enduring shifts in public opinion akin to those that followed the Great Depression. Surprisingly, they find no evidence of recession-induced attitude changes toward corporations, the government, perceptions of social justice, or policies aimed at aiding the poor. Similarly, Philip Morgan, Erin Cumberworth, and Christopher Wimer find no major recession effects on marriage, divorce, or cohabitation rates. They do find a decline in fertility rates, as well as increasing numbers of adult children returning home to the family nest—evidence that suggests deep pessimism about recovery. This protracted slump—marked by steep unemployment, profound destruction of wealth, and sluggish consumer activity—will likely continue for years to come, and more pronounced effects may surface down the road. The contributors note that, to date, this crisis has not yet generated broad shifts in lifestyle and attitudes. But by clarifying how the recession’s early impacts have—and have not—influenced our current economic and social landscape, The Great Recession establishes an important benchmark against which to measure future change.

The Financial Crisis Inquiry Report

The Financial Crisis Inquiry Report
Author: Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission
Publisher: Cosimo, Inc.
Total Pages: 692
Release: 2011-05-01
Genre: Political Science
ISBN: 1616405414

The Financial Crisis Inquiry Report, published by the U.S. Government and the Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission in early 2011, is the official government report on the United States financial collapse and the review of major financial institutions that bankrupted and failed, or would have without help from the government. The commission and the report were implemented after Congress passed an act in 2009 to review and prevent fraudulent activity. The report details, among other things, the periods before, during, and after the crisis, what led up to it, and analyses of subprime mortgage lending, credit expansion and banking policies, the collapse of companies like Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, and the federal bailouts of Lehman and AIG. It also discusses the aftermath of the fallout and our current state. This report should be of interest to anyone concerned about the financial situation in the U.S. and around the world.THE FINANCIAL CRISIS INQUIRY COMMISSION is an independent, bi-partisan, government-appointed panel of 10 people that was created to "examine the causes, domestic and global, of the current financial and economic crisis in the United States." It was established as part of the Fraud Enforcement and Recovery Act of 2009. The commission consisted of private citizens with expertise in economics and finance, banking, housing, market regulation, and consumer protection. They examined and reported on "the collapse of major financial institutions that failed or would have failed if not for exceptional assistance from the government."News Dissector DANNY SCHECHTER is a journalist, blogger and filmmaker. He has been reporting on economic crises since the 1980's when he was with ABC News. His film In Debt We Trust warned of the economic meltdown in 2006. He has since written three books on the subject including Plunder: Investigating Our Economic Calamity (Cosimo Books, 2008), and The Crime Of Our Time: Why Wall Street Is Not Too Big to Jail (Disinfo Books, 2011), a companion to his latest film Plunder The Crime Of Our Time. He can be reached online at www.newsdissector.com.

Permanently Displaced? Increasingly Disconnected? Labor Force Participation in U.S. States and Metropolitan Areas

Permanently Displaced? Increasingly Disconnected? Labor Force Participation in U.S. States and Metropolitan Areas
Author: Benjamin Hilgenstock
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 26
Release: 2018-05-21
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1484354850

The United States stands out among advanced economies with marked declines in labor force participation. National averages furthermore conceal considerable within-country heterogeneity. This paper explores regional differences to shed light on drivers of participation rates at the state and metropolitan area levels. It documents a broad-based decline, especially pronounced outside metropolitan areas. Using novel measures of local vulnerability to trade and technology it finds that metropolitan areas with higher exposures to routinization and offshoring experienced larger drops in participation in 2000-2016. Thus, areas with different occupational mixes can experience divergent labor market trajectories as a result of trade and technology.