Superforecasting

Superforecasting
Author: Philip E. Tetlock
Publisher: Crown
Total Pages: 331
Release: 2015-09-29
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 080413670X

NEW YORK TIMES BESTSELLER • NAMED ONE OF THE BEST BOOKS OF THE YEAR BY THE ECONOMIST “The most important book on decision making since Daniel Kahneman's Thinking, Fast and Slow.”—Jason Zweig, The Wall Street Journal Everyone would benefit from seeing further into the future, whether buying stocks, crafting policy, launching a new product, or simply planning the week’s meals. Unfortunately, people tend to be terrible forecasters. As Wharton professor Philip Tetlock showed in a landmark 2005 study, even experts’ predictions are only slightly better than chance. However, an important and underreported conclusion of that study was that some experts do have real foresight, and Tetlock has spent the past decade trying to figure out why. What makes some people so good? And can this talent be taught? In Superforecasting, Tetlock and coauthor Dan Gardner offer a masterwork on prediction, drawing on decades of research and the results of a massive, government-funded forecasting tournament. The Good Judgment Project involves tens of thousands of ordinary people—including a Brooklyn filmmaker, a retired pipe installer, and a former ballroom dancer—who set out to forecast global events. Some of the volunteers have turned out to be astonishingly good. They’ve beaten other benchmarks, competitors, and prediction markets. They’ve even beaten the collective judgment of intelligence analysts with access to classified information. They are "superforecasters." In this groundbreaking and accessible book, Tetlock and Gardner show us how we can learn from this elite group. Weaving together stories of forecasting successes (the raid on Osama bin Laden’s compound) and failures (the Bay of Pigs) and interviews with a range of high-level decision makers, from David Petraeus to Robert Rubin, they show that good forecasting doesn’t require powerful computers or arcane methods. It involves gathering evidence from a variety of sources, thinking probabilistically, working in teams, keeping score, and being willing to admit error and change course. Superforecasting offers the first demonstrably effective way to improve our ability to predict the future—whether in business, finance, politics, international affairs, or daily life—and is destined to become a modern classic.

The Age of Surveillance Capitalism

The Age of Surveillance Capitalism
Author: Shoshana Zuboff
Publisher: PublicAffairs
Total Pages: 683
Release: 2019-01-15
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1610395700

The challenges to humanity posed by the digital future, the first detailed examination of the unprecedented form of power called "surveillance capitalism," and the quest by powerful corporations to predict and control our behavior. In this masterwork of original thinking and research, Shoshana Zuboff provides startling insights into the phenomenon that she has named surveillance capitalism. The stakes could not be higher: a global architecture of behavior modification threatens human nature in the twenty-first century just as industrial capitalism disfigured the natural world in the twentieth. Zuboff vividly brings to life the consequences as surveillance capitalism advances from Silicon Valley into every economic sector. Vast wealth and power are accumulated in ominous new "behavioral futures markets," where predictions about our behavior are bought and sold, and the production of goods and services is subordinated to a new "means of behavioral modification." The threat has shifted from a totalitarian Big Brother state to a ubiquitous digital architecture: a "Big Other" operating in the interests of surveillance capital. Here is the crucible of an unprecedented form of power marked by extreme concentrations of knowledge and free from democratic oversight. Zuboff's comprehensive and moving analysis lays bare the threats to twenty-first century society: a controlled "hive" of total connection that seduces with promises of total certainty for maximum profit -- at the expense of democracy, freedom, and our human future. With little resistance from law or society, surveillance capitalism is on the verge of dominating the social order and shaping the digital future -- if we let it.

Possible Minds

Possible Minds
Author: John Brockman
Publisher: Penguin
Total Pages: 322
Release: 2019-02-19
Genre: Computers
ISBN: 0525558004

Science world luminary John Brockman assembles twenty-five of the most important scientific minds, people who have been thinking about the field artificial intelligence for most of their careers, for an unparalleled round-table examination about mind, thinking, intelligence and what it means to be human. "Artificial intelligence is today's story--the story behind all other stories. It is the Second Coming and the Apocalypse at the same time: Good AI versus evil AI." --John Brockman More than sixty years ago, mathematician-philosopher Norbert Wiener published a book on the place of machines in society that ended with a warning: "we shall never receive the right answers to our questions unless we ask the right questions.... The hour is very late, and the choice of good and evil knocks at our door." In the wake of advances in unsupervised, self-improving machine learning, a small but influential community of thinkers is considering Wiener's words again. In Possible Minds, John Brockman gathers their disparate visions of where AI might be taking us. The fruit of the long history of Brockman's profound engagement with the most important scientific minds who have been thinking about AI--from Alison Gopnik and David Deutsch to Frank Wilczek and Stephen Wolfram--Possible Minds is an ideal introduction to the landscape of crucial issues AI presents. The collision between opposing perspectives is salutary and exhilarating; some of these figures, such as computer scientist Stuart Russell, Skype co-founder Jaan Tallinn, and physicist Max Tegmark, are deeply concerned with the threat of AI, including the existential one, while others, notably robotics entrepreneur Rodney Brooks, philosopher Daniel Dennett, and bestselling author Steven Pinker, have a very different view. Serious, searching and authoritative, Possible Minds lays out the intellectual landscape of one of the most important topics of our time.

The Only Grammar Book You'll Ever Need

The Only Grammar Book You'll Ever Need
Author: Susan Thurman
Publisher: Adams Media
Total Pages: 192
Release: 2003-05-01
Genre: Language Arts & Disciplines
ISBN: 1580628559

Never stress over a comma, colon, or dash again! The Only Grammar Book You'll Ever Need is the ideal resource for everyone who wants to produce writing that is clear, concise, and grammatically excellent. Whether you're creating perfect professional documents, spectacular school papers, or effective personal letters, you'll find this handbook indispensable. From word choice to punctuation to organization, English teacher Susan Thurman guides you through getting your thoughts on paper with polish. Using dozens of examples, The Only Grammar Book You'll Ever Need provides guidelines for: –Understanding the parts of speech and elements of a sentence –Avoiding the most common grammar and punctuation mistakes –Using correct punctuating in every sentence –Writing clearly and directly –Approaching writing projects, whether big or small Easy to follow and authoritative, The Only Grammar Book You'll Ever Need provides all the necessary tools to make you successful with every type of written expression.

How to Stand Up to a Dictator

How to Stand Up to a Dictator
Author: Maria Ressa
Publisher: HarperCollins
Total Pages: 335
Release: 2022-11-29
Genre: Political Science
ISBN: 006325753X

Introduction by Amal Clooney From the recipient of the 2021 Nobel Peace Prize, an impassioned and inspiring memoir of a career spent holding power to account. Maria Ressa is one of the most renowned international journalists of our time. For decades, she challenged corruption and malfeasance in her native country, the Philippines, on its rocky path from an authoritarian state to a democracy. As a reporter from CNN, she transformed news coverage in her region, which led her in 2012 to create a new and innovative online news organization, Rappler. Harnessing the emerging power of social media, Rappler crowdsourced breaking news, found pivotal sources and tips, harnessed collective action for climate change, and helped increase voter knowledge and participation in elections. But by their fifth year of existence, Rappler had gone from being lauded for its ideas to being targeted by the new Philippine government, and made Ressa an enemy of her country’s most powerful man: President Duterte. Still, she did not let up, tracking government seeded disinformation networks which spread lies to its own citizens laced with anger and hate. Hounded by the state and its allies using the legal system to silence her, accused of numerous crimes, and charged with cyberlibel for which she was found guilty, Ressa faces years in prison and thousands in fines. There is another adversary Ressa is battling. How to Stand Up to a Dictator is also the story of how the creep towards authoritarianism, in the Philippines and around the world, has been aided and abetted by the social media companies. Ressa exposes how they have allowed their platforms to spread a virus of lies that infect each of us, pitting us against one another, igniting, even creating, our fears, anger, and hate, and how this has accelerated the rise of authoritarians and dictators around the world. She maps a network of disinformation—a heinous web of cause and effect—that has netted the globe: from Duterte’s drug wars to America's Capitol Hill; Britain’s Brexit to Russian and Chinese cyber-warfare; Facebook and Silicon Valley to our own clicks and votes. Democracy is fragile. How to Stand Up to a Dictator is an urgent cry for Western readers to recognize and understand the dangers to our freedoms before it is too late. It is a book for anyone who might take democracy for granted, written by someone who never would. And in telling her dramatic and turbulent and courageous story, Ressa forces readers to ask themselves the same question she and her colleagues ask every day: What are you willing to sacrifice for the truth?

Digital Work and Personal Data Protection

Digital Work and Personal Data Protection
Author: Lourdes Mella Méndez
Publisher: Cambridge Scholars Publishing
Total Pages: 555
Release: 2018-12-21
Genre: Law
ISBN: 1527523977

This book gathers contributions related to the most pressing problems and challenges that new information and communications technologies (ICT) and digital platforms introduce into the labour market, and the impact they have on the way that people work, their rights and even their health and dignity. In addition, there are also chapters studying personal data protection, which is currently a topic of maximum interest due to the New European Regulation about it. The contributors here are drawn from around the world, with several countries represented, such as Portugal, Spain, Italy, Brazil, Australia and Venezuela. The book will appeal lawyers, legal and human resources experts, economists, judges, academics and staff from trade unions, and employers’ representation. The volume features insights and contributions in different languages, with chapters in Spanish (12), English (6) and Portuguese (4).

Enhancing Synergies in a Collaborative Environment

Enhancing Synergies in a Collaborative Environment
Author: Pablo Cortés
Publisher: Springer
Total Pages: 370
Release: 2015-02-04
Genre: Technology & Engineering
ISBN: 3319140787

This volume contains a selection of the best papers presented at the 8th International Conference on Industrial Engineering and Industrial Management, XX International Conference on Industrial Engineering and Operations Management, and International IIE Conference 2014, hosted by ADINGOR, ABEPRO and the IIE, whose mission is to promote links between researchers and practitioners from different branches, to enhance an interdisciplinary perspective of industrial engineering and management. The conference topics covered: operations research, modelling and simulation, computer and information systems, operations research, scheduling and sequencing, logistics, production and information systems, supply chain and logistics, transportation, lean management, production planning and control, production system design, reliability and maintenance, quality management, sustainability and eco-efficiency, marketing and consumer behavior, business administration and strategic management, economic and financial management, technological and organizational innovation, strategy and entrepreneurship, economics engineering, enterprise engineering, global operations and cultural factors, operations strategy and performance, management social responsibility, environment and sustainability. This book will be of interest to researchers and practitioners working in any of the fields mentioned above.

Southeastern Geographer

Southeastern Geographer
Author: David M. Cochran Jr.
Publisher: UNC Press Books
Total Pages: 106
Release: 2012-10-01
Genre: Social Science
ISBN: 0807872601

Table of Contents for Volume 52, Number 3 (Fall 2012) Cover Art Co-producing Space Along the Sweetgrass Basket Makers' Highway in Mount Pleasant, South Carolina Brian Grabbatin Introduction David M. Cochran, Jr. and Carl A. Reese Part I: Papers Pet Ownership and the Spatial and Temporal Dimensions of Evacuation Decisions Courtney N. Thompson, David M. Brommer, and Kathleen Sherman-Morris Salinity Assessment in Northeast Florida Bay Using Landsat TM Data Caiyun Zhang, Zhixiao Xie, Charles Roberts, Leonard Berry, and Ge Chen An Assessment of Human Vulnerability to Hazards in the US Coastal Northeast and mid-Atlantic Shivangi Prasad Black, White or Green?: The Confederate Battle Emblem and the 2001 Mississippi State Flag Referendum Jonathan I. Leib and Gerald R. Webster The Role of Landscape in the Distribution of Deer-Vehicle Collisions in South Mississippi Jacob J. McKee and David M. Cochran, Jr. Part II: Geographical Notes Dr. John J. Winberry, Jr. (1945–2012) Gregory J. Carbone Part III: Reviews Removing Mountains: Extracting Nature and Identity in the Appalachian Coalfields Rebecca R. Scott Reviewed by Sarah A. Watson Mobile Urbanism: Cities and Policymaking in the Global Age Eugene McCann and Kevin Ward, eds. Reviewed by Brian K. Blickenstaff

Niñ@s hiper

Niñ@s hiper
Author: José Ramón Ubieto Pardo
Publisher: NED Ediciones
Total Pages: 131
Release: 2018-03
Genre: Psychology
ISBN: 8416737371

Los adultos estamos colonizando la infancia de manera acelerada por la vía de lo híper: infancias hiperactivas, hipersexualizadas, hiperconectadas... Queremos que sean como nosotros: emprendedores, con una identidad sexual clara, dominadores de varios idiomas y creativos. Idolatramos la autoestima, elogiándolos indiscriminadamente como si ya fueran geniales por el simple hecho de ser niños, a menudo origen de egos inflados de narcisismo. Y, al mismo tiempo, los queremos controlados y evaluables en sus resultados. ¿No estaremos privándoles del tiempo propio de la infancia, aquel que Freud reservaba para comprender qué significa hacerse mayor? ¿O de los entornos facilitadores de desarrollo a los que aludía Skinner? ¿Cómo seguir siendo interlocutores válidos para esta infancia del siglo XXI? Este libro está dirigido a un amplio público de madres y padres, docentes y profesionales.