Is There a Bias in Sovereign Ratings Due to Financial Reasons?

Is There a Bias in Sovereign Ratings Due to Financial Reasons?
Author: Hasan Doluca
Publisher:
Total Pages: 11
Release: 2014
Genre:
ISBN:

There exist different kinds of biases in sovereign ratings. In this paper we analyze one of the possible rating biases, i.e. we examine if rating agencies may have the incentive to rate countries where they earn more money better compared to countries where they earn less (profit maximizing bias). This paper finds no empirical evidence of profit maximizing bias on the level of sovereign ratings: In the rating process for countries the reputational concerns seem to dominate over financial interests. To our knowledge, this paper is the first analysis examining the issue of profit maximizing bias on the sovereign level.

Empirical Evidence of Bias in Sovereign Ratings

Empirical Evidence of Bias in Sovereign Ratings
Author: Hasan Doluca
Publisher:
Total Pages: 59
Release: 2014
Genre:
ISBN:

This paper analyzes if and what kind of sovereign rating bias exists. We analyze three possible biases. Firstly, rating agencies may have the incentive to rate countries where they earn more money better compared to countries where they earn less (profit maximizing bias). Secondly, different information asymmetry levels between the rated sovereigns and the rating agencies could lead to a bias (information asymmetry bias). A third bias could be due to the fact that a rating agency applies higher ratings to a country with which the country where the rating agency is located has stronger relations (home country bias). For the analysis of a potential home country preference we use a novel approach to the existing financial literature on rating bias: in particular, we use variables proxying the interconnection between the country in which the rating agency is headquartered and the rated country. This paper finds no empirical evidence of profit maximizing bias on the level of sovereign ratings but a significant bias in sovereign ratings caused by information asymmetry. The results of the analysis of home country bias are ambiguous. The interconnection of the US with the rated country proxied by the trade channel does not imply any home country bias; nevertheless, when a different proxy -- based on the interconnection between US-financial institutions and the respective countries -- is used, at first glance the results indicate a bias with respect to the ratings from Moody's only. However, this finding turns out not to be robust.

Sovereign Rating News and Financial Markets Spillovers

Sovereign Rating News and Financial Markets Spillovers
Author: Bertrand Candelon
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 30
Release: 2011-03-01
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1455225061

This paper examines the spillover effects of sovereign rating news on European financial markets during the period 2007-2010. Our main finding is that sovereign rating downgrades have statistically and economically significant spillover effects both across countries and financial markets. The sign and magnitude of the spillover effects depend both on the type of announcements, the source country experiencing the downgrade and the rating agency from which the announcements originates. However, we also find evidence that downgrades to near speculative grade ratings for relatively large economies such as Greece have a systematic spillover effects across Euro zone countries. Rating-based triggers used in banking regulation, CDS contracts, and investment mandates may help explain these results.

Sovereign Debt and Rating Agency Bias

Sovereign Debt and Rating Agency Bias
Author: D. Tennant
Publisher: Springer
Total Pages: 136
Release: 2017-08-15
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1137391502

Sovereign Debt and Credit Rating Bias rejects the notion that credit rating agencies' rigorous and transparent determination of ratings leaves no room for bias, and debunks the myth that the value CRAs place on their reputational capital precludes prolonged biases. To determine the extent of CRAs' biased actions, Tennant and Tracey apply a rigorous methodology to a well-established economic model of the determinants of sovereign debt quality. They present strong evidence of bias against poor countries and demonstrate how biased rating changes could disadvantage such countries and the companies operating therein as they seek access to international capital markets. They discuss plausible explanations for the bias and suggest remedial measures that would help ensure balance in credit rating changes. This book fills an important gap by rigorously examining a long-standing but often ignored concern about the rating practices of credit rating agencies.

Are Rating Agencies Powerful? An Investigation Into the Impact and Accuracy of Sovereign Ratings

Are Rating Agencies Powerful? An Investigation Into the Impact and Accuracy of Sovereign Ratings
Author: Mr.John Kiff
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 35
Release: 2012-01-01
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1463998724

We find that Credit Rating Agencies (CRA)'s opinions have an impact in the cost of funding of sovereign issuers and consequently ratings are a concern for financial stability. While ratings produced by the major CRAs perform reasonably well when it comes to rank ordering default risk among sovereigns, there is evidence of rating stability failure during the recent global financial crisis. These failures suggest that ratings should incorporate the obligor's resilience to stress scenarios. The empirical evidence also supports: (i) reform initiatives to reduce the impact of CRAs' certification services; (ii) more stringent validation requirements for ratings if they are to be used in capital regulations; and (iii) more transparency with regard to the quantitative parameters used in the rating process.

Managing the Sovereign-Bank Nexus

Managing the Sovereign-Bank Nexus
Author: Mr.Giovanni Dell'Ariccia
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 54
Release: 2018-09-07
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1484359623

This paper reviews empirical and theoretical work on the links between banks and their governments (the bank-sovereign nexus). How significant is this nexus? What do we know about it? To what extent is it a source of concern? What is the role of policy intervention? The paper concludes with a review of recent policy proposals.

Home Country Bias in Sovereign Ratings?

Home Country Bias in Sovereign Ratings?
Author: Hasan Doluca
Publisher:
Total Pages: 23
Release: 2014
Genre:
ISBN:

This paper analyzes if the so called home country bias exists in sovereign ratings: Home country bias could be due to the fact that a rating agency applies higher ratings to a country with which the country where the rating agency is located has stronger relations. For the analysis of a potential home country preference we use a novel approach to the existing financial literature on rating bias: in particular, we use variables proxying the interconnection between the country in which the rating agency is headquartered and the rated country. The results of the analysis of home country bias are ambiguous. The interconnection of the US with the rated country proxied by the trade channel does not imply any home country bias; nevertheless, when a different proxy - based on the interconnection between US financial institutions and the respective countries - is used, at first glance the results indicate a bias with respect to the ratings from Moody's only. However, this finding could not be verified by the robustness check. Thus, the ambiguous results show the need for further research on this issue.

Seller Reputation

Seller Reputation
Author: Heski Bar-Isaac
Publisher: Now Publishers Inc
Total Pages: 96
Release: 2008
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1601981589

Seller Reputation introduces a unifying framework that embeds a number of different approaches to seller reputation, incorporating both hidden information and hidden action. This framework is used to stress that the way in which consumers learn affects both behavior and outcomes. In particular, the extent to which information is generated and socially aggregated determines the efficiency of markets. After reviewing these theoretical building blocks, Seller Reputation examines several applications and empirical concerns. It highlights that the environment in which a transaction is embedded helps determine whether the transaction will occur and how parties will behave. Institutions, ranging from the design of online markets to norms in a community, can be understood as ensuring that concerns for reputation lead to more efficient outcomes. Similarly, the desire to affect consumer beliefs regarding the firm's incentives can help us understand strategic firm decisions that seem unrelated to the particular transactions they wish to promote. Seller Reputation concludes by considering slightly different models of reputation that lie beyond the scope of this framework, briefly reviewing the somewhat sparse empirical literature and suggesting future directions for research.