Informality and Macroeconomic Policy in Emerging Markets

Informality and Macroeconomic Policy in Emerging Markets
Author: Livio Cuzzi Maya
Publisher:
Total Pages: 0
Release: 2021
Genre:
ISBN:

This doctoral thesis is a collection of three independent articles in the field of Macroeconomics written during my period as PhD student at Stanford University. They have the common characteristic of being motivated by questions that, in my view, pertain mostly to emerging market economies.The first two articles were written in close collaboration with my friend Gustavo Pereira, who is currently a fellow PhD student at Columbia University. These two chapters study different aspects of informal labor hiring, or informality, which is common and widespread in developing economies, but which also affects - perhaps in a distinct format - advanced economies. The third article, written entirely by myself, studies a medium-scale, New Keynesian model in the presence of fiscal dominance. The main goal is to study the properties of deficit financing in emerging markets. In particular, the extent to which news about public finances change the perceived value of public debt and, therefore, inflation.In the rest of this introduction, I present a more detailed summary of the questions, methods and results of each chapter.The first article (chapter 2) studies the effects of public policies designed to fight informal labor activity. We propose a general equilibrium model with heterogeneous agents in which the income process follows from a search model. We calibrate it to generate stylized income/informality facts from Brazilian household-level data. Firms opt between offering formal or informal contracts and have heterogeneous ability to operate informally. Such heterogeneity leads some productive firms to choose informal contracts. It allows the model to produce similar income averages among high-income workers in the formal and informal sector, a property we find in the data. We then use the model to simulate the economy's response to the repression of informal labor activity by the government. Our simulation suggests that short and long-run impacts differ. General equilibrium effects matter for both. In the long run, households' welfare and average firm productivity improve, and 1 unemployment decreases. However, in the short run, reduced aggregate savings leads to a 4% increase in interest rates and a 2.5% increase in the unemployment rate. We also show that if the government fails to transfer back to households the additional tax revenue, these effects hold in the long run as well. In addition, if the policy is anticipated by economic agents, then output declines and informality increases prior to implementation. In all cases, households with greater wealth experience larger welfare gains.The second article (chapter 3) focuses on the share on informality share, of the share of informal jobs among total jobs, which increases in downturns and decreases in booms. We provide a novel channel to explain this stylized fact. The key insight is that the breakdown of the workforce into formal and informal jobs over the business cycle behaves like the weights of an aggregate portfolio. Hiring a worker formally has advantages in terms of productivity, but is inherently risky due to severance payment requirements that prevent the termination of labor contracts that become unprofitable during recessions.

The Global Informal Workforce

The Global Informal Workforce
Author: International Monetary Fund
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 414
Release: 2021-07-23
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1513575910

The Global Informal Workforce is a fresh look at the informal economy around the world and its impact on the macroeconomy. The book covers interactions between the informal economy, labor and product markets, gender equality, fiscal institutions and outcomes, social protection, and financial inclusion. Informality is a widespread and persistent phenomenon that affects how fast economies can grow, develop, and provide decent economic opportunities for their populations. The COVID-19 pandemic has helped to uncover the vulnerabilities of the informal workforce.

Economic Informality

Economic Informality
Author: Ana Maria Oviedo
Publisher: World Bank Publications
Total Pages: 54
Release: 2009-06-01
Genre: Political Science
ISBN: 0821379976

This survey assembles recent theoretical and empirical advances in the literature on economic informality and analyzes the causes and costs of informality in developed and developing economies. Using recent evidence, the survey discusses the nature and roots of informal economic activity across countries, distinguishing between informality as the result of exclusion and exit. The survey provides an extensive review of recent international experience with policies aimed at reducing informality, in particular, policies that facilitate the formalization process, create a framework for the transition from informality to formality, lend support to newly created firms, reduce or eliminate inconsistencies across regulation and government agencies, increase information flows, and increase enforcement.

Informality, Development, and the Business Cycle in North Africa

Informality, Development, and the Business Cycle in North Africa
Author: Mr. Roberto Cardarelli
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 90
Release: 2022-06-09
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1513591770

North African economies are characterized by a significant share of informal activity and employment. About two-thirds of workers in North Africa operate without any formal arrangement and social protection, and about 30 percent of GDP is estimated to be produced by informal workers and firms. This paper finds that while a few key structural characteristics could explain “normal” informality in North Africa, policy distortions explain a large share of excess informality. Among the structural factors that can lead to high informality, the relatively lower level of human capital and younger population help explain the high informality in the region, as low-skilled and young people generally find it more difficult to operate in the formal sector. At the same time, gaps in a set of policy indicators also explain the relatively high informality in North Africa. In particular, this paper finds that gaps in the quality of governance explain about half of the excess informality experienced in North Africa compared with advanced economies. In this context, the expansion of the informal sector in Algeria and Tunisia from the mid-2000s partially reflects the deterioration in a few indicators of their governance and regulatory frameworks. In contrast, the decline in informality observed in Egypt, Mauritania, and Morocco over this period also reflects improved business regulations, governance, and tax systems, in addition to continued progress in economic development. While informality has traditionally buffered regional labor markets against the impact of recessions, the COVID-19 crisis has been different. North African economies have generally exhibited relatively stable unemployment rates, including during recessions, largely owing to their high levels of informality. However, informal employment has fallen significantly in North Africa during the pandemic, as lockdown measures have particularly affected high-informality service sectors. As the pandemic subsides and the lockdown measures are removed, the recovery of regional labor markets could exhibit a stronger-than-usual rebound of informal employment. Ensuring an inclusive recovery from the pandemic would call for renewed efforts to construct more modern (digitalized), more efficient, and fairer systems of social protection, building on the progress achieved in the region during the pandemic in extending safety nets to informal workers.

The Long Shadow of Informality

The Long Shadow of Informality
Author: Franziska Ohnsorge
Publisher: World Bank Publications
Total Pages: 397
Release: 2022-02-09
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1464817545

A large percentage of workers and firms operate in the informal economy, outside the line of sight of governments in emerging market and developing economies. This may hold back the recovery in these economies from the deep recessions caused by the COVID-19 pandemic--unless governments adopt a broad set of policies to address the challenges of widespread informality. This study is the first comprehensive analysis of the extent of informality and its implications for a durable economic recovery and for long-term development. It finds that pervasive informality is associated with significantly weaker economic outcomes--including lower government resources to combat recessions, lower per capita incomes, greater poverty, less financial development, and weaker investment and productivity.

Informal Labour and Credit Markets

Informal Labour and Credit Markets
Author: Nicoletta Batini
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 43
Release: 2010-02-01
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1451962967

This paper reviews the literature on the informal economy, focusing first on empirical findings and then on existing approaches to modeling informality within both partial and general equilibrium environments. We concentrate on labour and credit markets, since these tend to be most affected by informality. The phenomenon is particularly important in emerging and other developing economies, given their high degrees of informal labour and financial services and the implications these have for the effectiveness of macroeconomic policy. We emphasize the need for dynamic general equilibrium (DGE) and ultimately dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models for a full understanding of the costs, benefits and policy implications of informality. The survey shows that the literature on informality is quite patchy, and that there are several unexplored areas left for research.

Monetary Policy Transmission in an Emerging Market Setting

Monetary Policy Transmission in an Emerging Market Setting
Author: Ila Patnaik
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 27
Release: 2011-01-01
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1455211834

Some emerging economies have a relatively ineffective monetary policy transmission owing to weaknesses in the domestic financial system and the presence of a large and segmented informal sector. At the same time, small open economies can have a substantial monetary policy transmission through the exchange rate channel. In order to understand this setting, we explore a unified treatment of monetary policy transmission and exchangerate pass-through. The results for an emerging market, India, suggest that the most effective mechanism through which monetary policy impacts inflation runs through the exchange rate.

Linking the Formal and Informal Economy

Linking the Formal and Informal Economy
Author: Basudeb Guha-Khasnobis
Publisher: OUP Oxford
Total Pages: 316
Release: 2006-09-21
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 0191525480

The concepts of formal and informal remain central to the theory and practice of development more than half a century after they were introduced into the debate. They help structure the way that statistical services collect data on the economies of developing countries, the development of theoretical and empirical analysis, and, most important, the formulation and implementation of policy. This volume brings together a significant new collection of studies on formality and informality in developing countries. The volume is multidisciplinary in nature, with contributions from anthropologists, economists, sociologists, and political scientists. It contains contributions from among the very best analysts in development studies. Between them the chapters argue for moving beyond the formal-informal dichotomy. Useful as it has proven to be, a more nuanced approach is needed in light of conceptual and empirical advances, and in light of the policy failures brought about by a characterization of the 'informal' as 'disorganized'. The wealth of empirical information in these studies, and in the literature more widely, can be used to develop guiding principles for intervention that are based on ground level reality.

Informal Employment in Emerging and Transition Economies

Informal Employment in Emerging and Transition Economies
Author: Solomon W. Polachek
Publisher: Emerald Group Publishing
Total Pages: 307
Release: 2012-04-17
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 178052787X

Informality and informal employment are wide-spread and growing phenomena in all regions of the world, particularly in low and middle income economies. This volume sheds light on the incidence and persistence of informality and the role of institutions and government regulations, and offers insights into issues such as how labor and tax regulations

The Informal Economy in Developing Countries

The Informal Economy in Developing Countries
Author: Jean-Pierre Cling
Publisher: Routledge
Total Pages: 390
Release: 2014-08-21
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1317912225

Informality is ubiquitous in most developing countries. Understanding the informal economy is therefore of utmost importance from a political, economic and social point of view. Paradoxically, despite its economic importance, knowledge is extremely limited regarding the informal economy. It remains largely unrecognized by researchers, is neglected by politicians, and is even negatively perceived as it is meant to disappear with development. This book aims to amend this situation by presenting recent high level research which studies the informal sector and informal employment. Fresh research into this subject is presented through empirical analysis which covers Asia, Africa and Latin America. Each chapter relies on data and a detailed knowledge of the context of the countries studied in order to question the dominant schools of thought on the origins and causes of informality. The results provide interesting insights into the constraints faced by informal workers, the dynamics of the informal economy and its link with poverty issues. On the basis of the evidences provided by results adequate policies could be defined to address informality issues. The principal characteristics of the informal sector testify to some profound similarities between developing countries: low qualifications and the precariousness of jobs, mediocre incomes and working conditions, atomization of production units and lack of articulation with the formal economy, etc. This general statement does not contradict the observation that there is a high level of heterogeneity in the sector and in informal employment within each country, confirmed by several chapters in this work. In the absence of a sufficient number of job creations, the informal sector essentially constitutes a refuge for workers seeking and is here to stay in the short and medium term, even in emerging countries.