Identifying Money and Inflation Expectation Shocks on Real Oil Prices

Identifying Money and Inflation Expectation Shocks on Real Oil Prices
Author:
Publisher:
Total Pages: 0
Release: 2023
Genre:
ISBN: 9789523234420

The paper adds money supply and inflation expectations shocks to a well-known three-variable structural model that identifies oil price shocks through fundamentals affecting the oil market. Impulse responses show the significance of our two additional monetary shocks in impacting real oil prices. By subtracting from the money supply the temporary Federal Reserve swaps that were used to increase liquidity during the 2008 and 2020 bank crises, shocks upwards in both the adjusted M1 money supply and to inflation expectations significantly increase real oil prices; with the unadjusted M1 aggregate there is no signiÖcant effect of money supply shocks on real oil prices. Decomposition of historical oil price shocks shows a significant role played by inflation expectations and the money supply shocks during major oil shock episodes. These shocks partially replace roles previously attributed to the precautionary oil demand shock and the aggregate demand shock during the three major oil shock periods of the 1970s-1980s, post-2008 and during the 2020-2021 pandemic. The results show that both real oil price shocks and expected inflation shocks cause real GDP to fall.

Identifying Money and Inflation Expectation Shocks to Real Oil Prices

Identifying Money and Inflation Expectation Shocks to Real Oil Prices
Author: Szilard Benk
Publisher:
Total Pages: 0
Release: 2022
Genre:
ISBN:

The paper adds money supply and inflation expectations shocks to a well-known three-variable structural model that identifies oil price shocks through fundamentals affecting the oil market. Impulse responses show the significance of our two additional monetary shocks in impacting real oil prices. By subtracting from the money supply the temporary Federal Reserve swaps that were used to increase liquidity during the 2008 and 2020 bank crises, shocks upwards in both the adjusted M1 money supply and to inflation expectations significantly increase real oil prices; with the unadjusted M1 aggregate there is no significant effect of money supply shocks on real oil prices. Decomposition of historical oil price shocks shows a significant role played by inflation expectations and the money supply shocks during major oil shock episodes. These shocks partially replace roles previously attributed to the precautionary oil demand shock and the aggregate demand shock during the three major oil shock periods of the 1970s-1980s, post-2008 and during the 2020-2021 pandemic. The results show that both real oil price shocks and expected inflation shocks cause real GDP to fall.

International Dimensions of Monetary Policy

International Dimensions of Monetary Policy
Author: Jordi Galí
Publisher: University of Chicago Press
Total Pages: 663
Release: 2010-03-15
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 0226278875

United States monetary policy has traditionally been modeled under the assumption that the domestic economy is immune to international factors and exogenous shocks. Such an assumption is increasingly unrealistic in the age of integrated capital markets, tightened links between national economies, and reduced trading costs. International Dimensions of Monetary Policy brings together fresh research to address the repercussions of the continuing evolution toward globalization for the conduct of monetary policy. In this comprehensive book, the authors examine the real and potential effects of increased openness and exposure to international economic dynamics from a variety of perspectives. Their findings reveal that central banks continue to influence decisively domestic economic outcomes—even inflation—suggesting that international factors may have a limited role in national performance. International Dimensions of Monetary Policy will lead the way in analyzing monetary policy measures in complex economies.

Inflation Expectations

Inflation Expectations
Author: Peter J. N. Sinclair
Publisher: Routledge
Total Pages: 402
Release: 2009-12-16
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1135179778

Inflation is regarded by the many as a menace that damages business and can only make life worse for households. Keeping it low depends critically on ensuring that firms and workers expect it to be low. So expectations of inflation are a key influence on national economic welfare. This collection pulls together a galaxy of world experts (including Roy Batchelor, Richard Curtin and Staffan Linden) on inflation expectations to debate different aspects of the issues involved. The main focus of the volume is on likely inflation developments. A number of factors have led practitioners and academic observers of monetary policy to place increasing emphasis recently on inflation expectations. One is the spread of inflation targeting, invented in New Zealand over 15 years ago, but now encompassing many important economies including Brazil, Canada, Israel and Great Britain. Even more significantly, the European Central Bank, the Bank of Japan and the United States Federal Bank are the leading members of another group of monetary institutions all considering or implementing moves in the same direction. A second is the large reduction in actual inflation that has been observed in most countries over the past decade or so. These considerations underscore the critical – and largely underrecognized - importance of inflation expectations. They emphasize the importance of the issues, and the great need for a volume that offers a clear, systematic treatment of them. This book, under the steely editorship of Peter Sinclair, should prove very important for policy makers and monetary economists alike.

The Distributional Implications of the Impact of Fuel Price Increases on Inflation

The Distributional Implications of the Impact of Fuel Price Increases on Inflation
Author: Mr. Kangni R Kpodar
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 34
Release: 2021-11-12
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1616356154

This paper investigates the response of consumer price inflation to changes in domestic fuel prices, looking at the different categories of the overall consumer price index (CPI). We then combine household survey data with the CPI components to construct a CPI index for the poorest and richest income quintiles with the view to assess the distributional impact of the pass-through. To undertake this analysis, the paper provides an update to the Global Monthly Retail Fuel Price Database, expanding the product coverage to premium and regular fuels, the time dimension to December 2020, and the sample to 190 countries. Three key findings stand out. First, the response of inflation to gasoline price shocks is smaller, but more persistent and broad-based in developing economies than in advanced economies. Second, we show that past studies using crude oil prices instead of retail fuel prices to estimate the pass-through to inflation significantly underestimate it. Third, while the purchasing power of all households declines as fuel prices increase, the distributional impact is progressive. But the progressivity phases out within 6 months after the shock in advanced economies, whereas it persists beyond a year in developing countries.

Oil Prices and Inflation Dynamics: Evidence from Advanced and Developing Economies

Oil Prices and Inflation Dynamics: Evidence from Advanced and Developing Economies
Author: Sangyup Choi
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 55
Release: 2017-09-05
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1484318439

We study the impact of fluctuations in global oil prices on domestic inflation using an unbalanced panel of 72 advanced and developing economies over the period from 1970 to 2015. We find that a 10 percent increase in global oil inflation increases, on average, domestic inflation by about 0.4 percentage point on impact, with the effect vanishing after two years and being similar between advanced and developing economies. We also find that the effect is asymmetric, with positive oil price shocks having a larger effect than negative ones. The impact of oil price shocks, however, has declined over time due in large part to a better conduct of monetary policy. We further examine the transmission channels of oil price shocks on domestic inflation during the recent decades, by making use of a monthly dataset from 2000 to 2015. The results suggest that the share of transport in the CPI basket and energy subsidies are the most robust factors in explaining cross-country variations in the effects of oil price shocks during the this period.

Second-Round Effects of Oil Price Shocks -- Implications for Europe’s Inflation Outlook

Second-Round Effects of Oil Price Shocks -- Implications for Europe’s Inflation Outlook
Author: Chikako Baba
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 40
Release: 2022-09-09
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN:

The pass-through effects of oil price shocks on wage and consumer price inflation vary with the states or structural characteristics of an economy. The effects have declined over time in Europe and been higher in emerging European economies than in advanced economies. The pass-through to wages is found to have been higher when the prevailing level of inflation was higher or when the degrees of unionization and centralized bargaining were higher, while lower under a higher credibility of monetary policy. The effects of oil price shocks on core inflation and inflation expectations are consistent with their effects on wages.

Oil Shocks and the Zero Bound on Nominal Interest Rates

Oil Shocks and the Zero Bound on Nominal Interest Rates
Author: Martin Bodenstein
Publisher: DIANE Publishing
Total Pages: 47
Release: 2011-04
Genre: Reference
ISBN: 1437980503

Beginning in 2009, in many advanced economies, policy rates reached their zero lower bound (ZLB). Almost at the same time, oil prices started rising again. The authors analyze how the ZLB affects the propagation of oil shocks. As these shocks move inflation and output in opposite directions, their effects on economic activity are cushioned when monetary policy is constrained. The burst of inflation from an oil price increase lowers real interest rates at the ZLB and stimulates theinterest-sensitive component of GDP, offsetting the usual contractionary effects. In fact, if the increase in oil prices is gradual, the persistent rise in inflation can cause a GDP expansion. Illus. This is a print on demand report.

Measuring Oil-Price Shocks Using Market-Based Information

Measuring Oil-Price Shocks Using Market-Based Information
Author: Tao Wu
Publisher: DIANE Publishing
Total Pages: 41
Release: 2010-10
Genre: Technology & Engineering
ISBN: 1437935583

The authors study the effects of oil-price shocks on the U.S economy combining narrative and quantitative approaches. After examining daily oil-related events since 1984, they classify them into various event types. They then develop measures of exogenous shocks that avoid endogeneity and predictability concerns. Estimation results indicate that oil-price shocks have had substantial and statistically significant effects during the last 25 years. In contrast, traditional vector auto-regression (VAR) approaches imply much weaker and insignificant effects for the same period. This discrepancy stems from the inability of VARs to separate exogenous oil-supply shocks from endogenous oil-price fluctuations driven by changes in oil demand. Illustrations.

Granger Predictability of Oil Prices After the Great Recession

Granger Predictability of Oil Prices After the Great Recession
Author: Szilard Benk
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 18
Release: 2019-11-01
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1513519727

Real oil prices surged from 2009 through 2014, comparable to the 1970’s oil shock period. Standard explanations based on monopoly markup fall short since inflation remained low after 2009. This paper contributes strong evidence of Granger (1969) predictability of nominal factors to oil prices, using one adjustment to monetary aggregates. This adjustment is the subtraction from the monetary aggregates of the 2008-2009 Federal Reserve borrowing of reserves from other Central Banks (Swaps), made after US reserves turned negative. This adjustment is key in that Granger predictability from standard monetary aggregates is found only with the Swaps subtracted.