How Promising Is South South Trade As A Contributor To Economic Development In Asia And South America Insights From Estimating Income Elasticities Of Import Demand
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| Author | : Thomas Bernhardt |
| Publisher | : |
| Total Pages | : 46 |
| Release | : 2014 |
| Genre | : |
| ISBN | : |
The recent global economic crisis which originated in the global North but quickly spread to the global South has raised questions about the desirability and viability of export regimes primarily orientated towards the markets of high-income countries. The experience of crisis and contagion made developing countries intensify their efforts to diversify sources of economic growth and their search for alternative models of economic development.Expanding South-South trade relationships increasingly became viewed as one such alternative. Yet how promising a strategy is this? In an attempt to provide an answer to this question, this paper first documents the dynamic evolution of South-South trade in past decades and puts forward some theoretical considerations. It then undertakes an econometric analysis to estimate income elasticities of import demand for bilateral trade relationships among a sample of developing Asian and South American countries and two key Northern markets, the Eurozone and the US. Applying an ARDL approach to estimation, our econometric analysis yields mixed results with regard to the question whether South-South trade is generally characterized by higher income elasticities of import demand than South-North trade. While this is largely true for trade involving developing Asian economies, the same does not hold for South American countries. Moreover, income elasticities for imports from the global South are comparatively high in the US (and actually higher than for South-South trade flows in many cases) but this does not equally apply for the Eurozone. Still, our findings show that South-South trade can be a promising alternative source of economic growth, especially if South-North income growth and import growth differentials in favor of the former continue to persist. These findings, thus, provide a rationale for policies aimed at facilitating trade among developing countries.
| Author | : Erhan Artuc |
| Publisher | : World Bank Publications |
| Total Pages | : 215 |
| Release | : 2019-02-25 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 1464812497 |
South Asia has grown rapidly with significant reductions in poverty, but it has not been able to match the fast-growing working age population, leading to lingering concerns about jobless growth and poor job quality. Could export growth in South Asia result in better labor market outcomes? The answer is yes, according to our study, which rigorously estimates—using a new methodology—the potential impact from higher South Asian exports per worker on wages and employment over a 10-year period. Our study shows the positive side of trade. It finds that increasing exports per worker would result in higher wages—mainly for better-off groups, like more educated workers, males, and more-experienced workers—although less-skilled workers would see the largest reduction in informality. How can the benefits be spread more widely? Our study suggests that scaling up exports in labor-intensive industries could significantly lower informality for groups like rural and less-educated workers in the region. Also, increasing skills, and participation of women and young workers in the labor force could make an even bigger dent in informal employment. The region could achieve these gains by: (i) boosting and connecting exports to people (e.g., removing trade barriers and investment in infrastructure); (ii) eliminating distortions in production (e.g., by more efficient allocation of inputs); and (iii) protecting workers (e.g., by investing in education and skills).
| Author | : Daniel Lederman |
| Publisher | : World Bank Publications |
| Total Pages | : 153 |
| Release | : 2012-06-18 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 0821384910 |
Does what economies export matter for development? If so, can industrial policies improve on the export basket generated by the market? This book approaches these questions from a variety of conceptual and policy viewpoints. Reviewing the theoretical arguments in favor of industrial policies, the authors first ask whether existing indicators allow policy makers to identify growth-promoting sectors with confidence. To this end, they assess, and ultimately cast doubt upon, the reliability of many popular indicators advocated by proponents of industrial policy. Second, and central to their critique, the authors document extraordinary differences in the performance of countries exporting seemingly identical products, be they natural resources or 'high-tech' goods. Further, they argue that globalization has so fragmented the production process that even talking about exported goods as opposed to tasks may be misleading. Reviewing evidence from history and from around the world, the authors conclude that policy makers should focus less on what is produced, and more on how it is produced. They analyze alternative approaches to picking winners but conclude by favoring 'horizontal-ish' policies--for instance, those that build human capital or foment innovation in existing and future products—that only incidentally favor some sectors over others.
| Author | : World Bank |
| Publisher | : World Bank Publications |
| Total Pages | : 511 |
| Release | : 2019-11-19 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 1464814953 |
Global value chains (GVCs) powered the surge of international trade after 1990 and now account for almost half of all trade. This shift enabled an unprecedented economic convergence: poor countries grew rapidly and began to catch up with richer countries. Since the 2008 global financial crisis, however, the growth of trade has been sluggish and the expansion of GVCs has stalled. Meanwhile, serious threats have emerged to the model of trade-led growth. New technologies could draw production closer to the consumer and reduce the demand for labor. And trade conflicts among large countries could lead to a retrenchment or a segmentation of GVCs. World Development Report 2020: Trading for Development in the Age of Global Value Chains examines whether there is still a path to development through GVCs and trade. It concludes that technological change is, at this stage, more a boon than a curse. GVCs can continue to boost growth, create better jobs, and reduce poverty provided that developing countries implement deeper reforms to promote GVC participation; industrial countries pursue open, predictable policies; and all countries revive multilateral cooperation.
| Author | : World Trade Organization |
| Publisher | : World Trade Organization |
| Total Pages | : 0 |
| Release | : 2017 |
| Genre | : Political Science |
| ISBN | : 9789287041258 |
This report is about a huge contribution to our deepening understanding of what the global economy really means and how it is changing. The report helpfully distinguishes elements of an economy that are tradable and the large set that are non-tradable. Clearly the tradables set is expanding with the support of enabling technology. The report argues that connectivity in the networks that define the evolving architecture of GVCs is important. This Global Value Chain Development Report is the result of intensive and detailed work in assembling and analyzing data on the structure of economies and on how they are linked. It creates a much clearer picture of evolving patterns of independence. It also presents a much clearer picture of comparative advantage. --Publisher description.
| Author | : Douglas H. Brooks |
| Publisher | : Edward Elgar Publishing |
| Total Pages | : 256 |
| Release | : 2009-01-30 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 1781953279 |
Much of the analysis of infrastructure's impact on trade costs focuses on conditions in developed countries. This book makes an invaluable contribution to our understanding by examining the situation in developing Asia, the world's most populous and fastest growing region. This study analyzes and draws policy implications from infrastructure's central role in lowering Asia's trade costs. Infrastructure is shown to be a cost-effective means of lowering trade costs and thereby promoting regional growth and integration. This book combines thematic and country studies, while breaking new ground in.
| Author | : Nagwa Riad |
| Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
| Total Pages | : 87 |
| Release | : 2012-01-15 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 1463973101 |
Changing Patterns of Global Trade outlines the factors underlying important shifts in global trade that have occurred in recent decades. The emergence of global supply chains and their increasing role in trade patterns allowed emerging market economies to boost their inputs in high-technology exports and is associated with increased trade interconnectedness.The analysis points to one important trend taking place over the last decade: the emergence of China as a major systemically important trading hub, reflecting not only the size of trade but also the increase in number of its significant trading partners.
| Author | : Olivier Cattaneo |
| Publisher | : World Bank Publications |
| Total Pages | : 420 |
| Release | : 2010 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 0821384996 |
The book looks to address the following questions in a post-crisis world: How have lead firms responded to the crisis? Have they changed their traditional supply chain strategy and relocated and/or outsourced part of their production? How will those changes affect developing countries? What should be the policy responses to these changes?
| Author | : Gladys Lopez-Acevedo |
| Publisher | : World Bank Publications |
| Total Pages | : 207 |
| Release | : 2016-03-28 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 1464808147 |
South Asia is in the midst of a demographic transition. For the next three decades, the growth of the region’s working age population will far outpace the growth of dependents. Close to one million individuals will enter the workforce every month. This large, economically active population can increase the region’s capacity to save and make crucial investments in physical capital, job training, and technological advancement. But for South Asia to realize these dividends, it must ensure that its working-age population is productively employed. As one of the most prominent labor-intensive industries in developing countries, apparel manufacturing is a prime contender. With around 4.7 million workers in the formal sector and another estimated 20.3 million informally employed (combined with textiles), apparel already constitutes close to 40 percent of manufacturing employment. And given that much of apparel production continues to be labor-intensive, the potential to create more and better jobs is immense. There is a huge window of opportunity now for South Asia, given that China, the dominant producer for the last ten years, has started to cede some ground due to higher wages. But the region faces strong competition from East Asia—with Cambodia, Indonesia, and Vietnam already pulling ahead. Plus the sector suffers from production inefficiencies and policy bottlenecks that have prevented it from achieving its potential. Against this backdrop, this report hopes to inform the debate by measuring the employment gains that the four most populous countries in South Asia—Bangladesh, India, Pakistan and Sri Lanka (hereafter `SAR countries’)—can expect in this new environment of increased competition and scrutiny. Its main message is that it is important for South Asian economies to remove existing impediments and facilitate growth in apparel to capture more production and create more employment as wages rise in China. The successful manufacturers will be those who can supply a wide range of quality products to buyers rapidly and reliably—not just offer low costs.
| Author | : World Bank |
| Publisher | : World Bank Publications |
| Total Pages | : 216 |
| Release | : 2006 |
| Genre | : Business |
| ISBN | : 0821367285 |
Over the next 25 years developing countries will move to center stage in the global economy. Global Economic Prospects 2007 analyzes the opportunities - and stresses - this will create. While rich and poor countries alike stand to benefit, the integration process will make more acute stresses already apparent today - in income inequality, in labor markets, and in the environment. Over the next 25 years, rapid technological progress, burgeoning trade in goods and services, and integration of financial markets create the opportunity for faster long-term growth. However, some regions, notably Africa, are at risk of being left behind. The coming globalization will also see intensified stresses on the "global commons." Addressing global warming, preserving marine fisheries, and containing infectious diseases will require effective multilateral collaboration to ensure that economic growth and poverty reduction proceed without causing irreparable harm to future generations."
