How Predictable Are Precious Metal Returns
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Author | : Andrew Urquhart |
Publisher | : |
Total Pages | : 28 |
Release | : 2016 |
Genre | : |
ISBN | : |
This paper provides strong evidence of time-varying return predictability of three precious metals from January 1987 to September 2014. We use three variations of the variance ratio test, the nonlinear BDS test as well as the Hurst exponent to evaluate the time-varying return predictability of precious metals to reduce the risk of spurious results. We show that even when the full sample period indicates no significant predictability, each market goes through periods of significant predictability as well as periods of unpredictability, according to all of the testing procedures used in this study. Our findings suggest that return predictability in precious metals does vary over time and that market efficiency is not an all-or-nothing condition, which is consistent with the Adaptive Market Hypothesis. We also show that platinum is the most predictable of the three precious metals and silver the least predictable, which may be of great to investors who include precious metals in their investment portfolios.
Author | : Ben Jacobsen |
Publisher | : |
Total Pages | : 50 |
Release | : 2016 |
Genre | : |
ISBN | : |
Price movements in industrial metals such as copper and aluminum predict stock returns. Increasing industrial metal prices are good news for equity markets in recessions and bad news in expansions. A one standard deviation increase in industrial metal returns predicts a price drop of one and a half percent in monthly stock market returns in expansions and an increase of around a half percent during recessions. The predictability is distinct to and compares favorably with that from more established predictors, with monthly out-of-sample R2's of 3% to 8%.
Author | : Alan Northcott |
Publisher | : Atlantic Publishing Company |
Total Pages | : 267 |
Release | : 2011 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 1601382928 |
As the U.S. economy struggles to recover from the worst economic crisis since the Great Depression, citizens across the country are searching for alternative investment vehicles. Many are finding solace in a precious metal that has been a universal measure of wealth since early civilization: gold. Investment brokers and novices alike are reaping the benefits that come with diversifying their investments. Goldâe(tm)s value is determined by a number of factors including the volume of the metal held by prosperous countries, the rarity of the metal as it is refined, and current market trends, such as inflation and the movement of the investment market. In 1910, gold was worth $20 an ounce; a century later, in 2010, the value of gold reached nearly $1,120 an ounce. This book discusses where the value of these metals first originated and how they have evolved over the course of human history. You will learn how practical uses of precious metals have directly affected their value over time and how metals like gold and silver are direct indicators of the current state of the economy. Most importantly, you will learn to recognize market trends that pinpoint the risk of inflation and the exodus from stock to precious metals that will often occur as a result. You will learn how to use mutual funds and futures to diversify your portfolio without spreading yourself too thin. With advice from dozens of financial experts and commodities traders, you will learn how to maximize your return and minimize your risk. If you are looking to diversify your portfolio and protect your investments, The Complete Guide to Investing in Gold and Precious Metals is your handbook for making the most from your investment. Atlantic Publishing is a small, independent publishing company based in Ocala, Florida. Founded over twenty years ago in the company presidentâe(tm)s garage, Atlantic Publishing has grown to become a renowned resource for non-fiction books. Today, over 450 titles are in print covering subjects such as small business, healthy living, management, finance, careers, and real estate. Atlantic Publishing prides itself on producing award winning, high-quality manuals that give readers up-to-date, pertinent information, real-world examples, and case studies with expert advice. Every book has resources, contact information, and web sites of the products or companies discussed.
Author | : Murray Frank |
Publisher | : |
Total Pages | : 26 |
Release | : 1990 |
Genre | : |
ISBN | : |
Author | : Vito Bobek |
Publisher | : BoD – Books on Demand |
Total Pages | : 226 |
Release | : 2021-07-07 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 1839684348 |
The rapid growth and development of emerging economies offer both opportunities and threats for international businesses. Understanding the economic development of emerging markets, combined with a knowledge of the increasingly complex international business market, enables better exploitation of opportunities in increasingly competitive world markets. The BRIC countries, the most prominent emerging markets, have long been discovered by foreign firms due to their enormous potential for investment opportunities. This book offers a comprehensive look at emerging markets, especially as they integrate with the global economy. It offers a conceptual framework to analyze emerging markets from multiple perspectives, including those of indigenous entrepreneurs struggling to overcome constraints to build world-class businesses, multinationals from developed countries tapping into emerging markets for their next growth spurt, and domestic and foreign investors seeking to profit from investment opportunities in emerging markets.
Author | : Philip Gotthelf |
Publisher | : John Wiley & Sons |
Total Pages | : 350 |
Release | : 2005-05-06 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 0471747440 |
A detailed look at how to profit in the precious metals market Today, gold, silver, platinum, and palladium offer a new and different profit potential for those who understand the impact of new technologies, new economic forces, and new demographics. Updated to reflect changes in this market since the mid-1990s, The Precious Metals Trader focuses on new developments that could translate into serious profit-making trends-from electrically-generated automobiles that could substantially increase demand for platinum to the increased use of composites in dentistry, which could negatively impact the use of both silver and gold. The Precious Metals Trader also explains the supply/demand fundamentals of the four precious metals-gold, silver, platinum, and palladium-and provides projections about long-term trends and profit opportunities that will coincide with them. Filled with fresh insights from Philip Gotthelf-one of the top experts in this field-The Precious Metals Trader offers readers the guidance they need to trade profitably within this dynamic market. Philip Gotthelf (Closter, NJ) publishes the Commodex System-the oldest daily futures trading system published in the world-and the Commodity Futures Forecast Service. He is also President of Equidex Incorporated and Equidex Brokerage Group Inc.
Author | : Amélie Charles |
Publisher | : |
Total Pages | : 25 |
Release | : 2014 |
Genre | : |
ISBN | : |
Precious metals (gold, silver, and platinum) have become an important part of investment portfolios for individuals as well as for institutions. A key question is whether investors should actively trade these metals to time the market or whether they should take a buy-and-hold strategy. This paper examines the weak-form efficiency of precious metals markets with this question in mind, using the automatic portmanteau and variance ratio tests. It is found that return predictability of these markets has been changing over time, depending on prevailing economic and political conditions. The return predictability of gold and silver markets have been showing a downward trend, implying that the degree of the weak-form efficiency of these markets have been gradually improving. In particular, the gold market has been highly efficient recently, showing the highest degree of market efficiency among the three precious metals markets. The overall evidence suggest an buy-and-hold strategy, but profit opportunities may arise from time to time depending on prevailing economic or political conditions.
Author | : Vladik Kreinovich |
Publisher | : Springer |
Total Pages | : 788 |
Release | : 2017-11-30 |
Genre | : Technology & Engineering |
ISBN | : 3319709429 |
This book presents recent research on predictive econometrics and big data. Gathering edited papers presented at the 11th International Conference of the Thailand Econometric Society (TES2018), held in Chiang Mai, Thailand, on January 10-12, 2018, its main focus is on predictive techniques – which directly aim at predicting economic phenomena; and big data techniques – which enable us to handle the enormous amounts of data generated by modern computers in a reasonable time. The book also discusses the applications of more traditional statistical techniques to econometric problems. Econometrics is a branch of economics that employs mathematical (especially statistical) methods to analyze economic systems, to forecast economic and financial dynamics, and to develop strategies for achieving desirable economic performance. It is therefore important to develop data processing techniques that explicitly focus on prediction. The more data we have, the better our predictions will be. As such, these techniques are essential to our ability to process huge amounts of available data.
Author | : Michael Maloney |
Publisher | : Business Plus |
Total Pages | : 179 |
Release | : 2008-08-28 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 0446544647 |
"Throughout the ages, many things have been used as currency: livestock, grains, spices, shells, beads, and now paper. But only two things have ever been money: gold and silver. When paper money becomes too abundant, and thus loses its value, man always turns back to precious metals. During these times there is always an enormous wealth transfer, and it is within your power to transfer that wealth away from you or toward you." --Michael Maloney, precious metals investment expert and historian; founder and principal, Gold & Silver, Inc. The Advanced Guide to Investing Gold and Silver tells readers: The essential history of economic cycles that make gold and silver the ultimate monetary standard. How the U.S. government is driving inflation by diluting our money supply and weakening our purchasing power Why precious metals are one of the most profitable, easiest, and safest investments you can make Where, when, and how to invest your money and realize maximum returns, no matter what the economy's state Essential advice on avoiding the middleman and taking control of your financial destiny by making your investments directly.
Author | : Gerald Appel |
Publisher | : FT Press |
Total Pages | : 375 |
Release | : 2006 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 0131721291 |
Appel shows readers which investments provide the best returns in varying economic climates, how to recognize investment opportunities overseas, and other strategies for bringing in high and steady levels of income.