How much should I hold? Reserve Adequacy in Emerging Markets and Small Islands

How much should I hold? Reserve Adequacy in Emerging Markets and Small Islands
Author: MissNkunde Mwase
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 44
Release: 2012-08-01
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1475505558

This paper investigates the drivers of reserves in emerging markets (EMs) and small island (SIs) and develops an operational metric for estimating reserves in SIs taking into account their unique characteristics. It uses quantile regression techniques to allow the estimated factors driving reserves holdings to vary along the reserves’ holding distribution and tests for equality among the slope coefficients of the various quantile regressions and the overall models. F-tests comparing the inter-quantile differences could not reject the that the models for the different quantiles of SIs reserve distribution were similar but this was rejected for EMs distribution suggesting that models explaining drivers of reserve holdings should take into account the country’s reserve holdings. Empirical analysis suggests that the metric performs better than existing metrics in reducing crisis probabilities in SIs.

Guidance Note on the Assessment of Reserve Adequacy and Related Considerations

Guidance Note on the Assessment of Reserve Adequacy and Related Considerations
Author: International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, & Review Department
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 42
Release: 2016-03-06
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1498345646

operational guidance to staff on reserve adequacy discussions in the IMF’s bilateral and multilateral surveillance. It is based on the views presented in the policy paper Assessing Reserve Adequacy—Specific Proposals and the related Board discussion. The note addresses key issues related to Staff’s advice on the assessment of the adequacy of reserves and related items, including answering the following questions: What is the expected coverage of reserve issues at different stages of the bilateral surveillance process (Policy Note, mission, and Staff Report)? Which reserve adequacy tools best fit different economies based on their financial maturity, economic flexibility, and market access? What do possible reserve needs in mature markets relate to, and how can their adequacy be assessed? How can reserve adequacy discussions for emerging and deepening financial markets be tailored and applied to better evaluate reserve levels in: (i) commodity-intensive economies; (ii) countries with capital flow management measures (CFMs); and (iii) partially and fully dollarized economies? What reserve adequacy considerations hold for countries with limited access to capital markets? How can metrics for these economies be tailored to evaluate their reserve needs? How should potential drains on reserves be covered? What are the various measures of the cost of reserves for countries with and without market access?

2024 Staff Guidance Note On The IMF’s Engagement With Small Developing States

2024 Staff Guidance Note On The IMF’s Engagement With Small Developing States
Author: International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, & Review Department
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 68
Release: 2024-07-25
Genre:
ISBN:

This guidance note provides operational guidance on the Fund’s engagement with small developing states (SDS). It highlights the unique economic characteristics and constraints facing SDS, notably in a more shock-prone world. Building on advice that applies to the full membership, the note explains how the characteristics of SDS shape Fund surveillance, financial support and program design, capacity development (CD), and collaboration with other institutions and donors. The note updates the previous version that was published in December 2017.

Estimating the Demand for Reserve Assets Across Diverse Groups

Estimating the Demand for Reserve Assets Across Diverse Groups
Author: Ms.Rina Bhattacharya
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 47
Release: 2018-03-09
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1484346777

This paper takes a fresh look at the determinants of reserves holding with the aim of highlighting similarities and differences in the motives for holding reserves among emerging markets (EMs), advanced economies (AEs), and low-income countries (LICs). We apply two panel estimation techniques: fixed effects (FE) and common correlated effects pooled mean group (CCEPMG). FE regression results suggest that precautionary savings motives, both current account- and capital account-related, are generally the most important determinants of reserves holding across country groups and that their importance has increased for AEs and LICs since the global financial crisis while receding for EMs. Mercantilist motives matter mostly for EMs. Intertemporal motives have been gaining importance everywhere over time. The CCEPMG results confirm the importance of precautionary motives and suggest that current account motives matter only for EMs and LICs and capital account motives matter for all groups while being more important for EMs in both the shortand long runs. The CCEPMG results also point to the importance of taking into account unobserved common factors that affect coefficient estimates and the dynamic process through which reserves adjust to changes. At about 0.6, the speed of adjustment to the long-run equilibrium implies that more than half of the gap between actual and desired reserve holdings is closed within a year.

Seychelles

Seychelles
Author: International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 83
Release: 2013-07-11
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1484394305

This staff report discusses Seychelles 2013 Article IV Consultation, Seventh Review Under the Extended Arrangement and Request for Modification of Performance Criterion. The repayment of domestic debt, a preference for foreign financing, and shallow domestic financial markets have resulted in significant structural rupee liquidity in the banking system. Tourism has been the main driver of growth, but there is a tension with the number of tourists the islands can absorb. Despite the challenging global environment, tourist arrivals have grown strongly, with diversification toward nontraditional markets more than offsetting stalling European arrivals. The Seychellois rupee is broadly in line with medium-term fundamentals, and tourism remains competitive among peers.

Suriname

Suriname
Author: International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 114
Release: 2016-06-07
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1484377176

This paper mainly discusses the IMF-supported program aimed at restoring macroeconomic stability and confidence in Suriname’s economy. The proposed 24-month Stand-By Arrangement (265 percent of quota, or SDR 342 million) aims to support Suriname’s adjustment to the fall in commodity export prices and restore external and fiscal sustainability. It foresees an improvement of the fiscal balance by 7.4 percent of GDP, which would reverse the rise in the government debt-to-GDP ratio; restore foreign reserves to adequate levels—four months of imports; and reflect a monetary policy stance calibrated to reduce inflation to single digits. It also strengthens the foundations for private-sector growth.

Guyana

Guyana
Author: International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 74
Release: 2014-09-25
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1498355005

The economy has experienced seven consecutive years of robust growth, buoyed by high commodity prices, foreign direct investment and expansion of private sector credit. As part of a strategy to sustain growth, reduce poverty and curtail dependence on imported oil, the authorities are pursuing the Amaila Falls Hydro-electric Project (AFHP), entailing investment of about 30 percent of GDP. However, steps by Parliament that delayed important approvals led the private sector partner to withdraw, which could delay the project while additional financing is sought. Meanwhile, public debt remains high—around 60 percent of GDP—limiting the room to finance inclusive growth.

Central African Economic and Monetary Community

Central African Economic and Monetary Community
Author: Mr.Mario Zamaróczy
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 73
Release: 2018-08-03
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1484372123

This paper discusses possible reserve management approaches in the Central African Economic and Monetary Community (CEMAC). The paper looks beyond the region’s current oil crisis and proposes a new approach to international reserve management in the medium term.

The Bahamas

The Bahamas
Author: International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 68
Release: 2018-05-15
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1484355121

This 2018 Article IV Consultation highlights that The Bahamas’ real GDP is estimated to have expanded by 1.3 percent in 2017. Economic activity has been supported by the completion of Baha Mar, new foreign direct investment-financed projects, and post-hurricane reconstruction activity. However, air tourist arrivals declined 4 percent in 2017, reflecting the impact of Hurricane Matthew on hotel infrastructure in the Grand Bahama Island. Real GDP growth is projected at 2.5 percent in 2018 and 2.25 percent in 2019 on the back of stronger growth in the United States; the phased opening of Baha Mar; and a pickup in foreign direct investment. Medium-term growth is projected to remain at 1.5 percent, reflecting significant structural impediments.

IMF Research Bulletin, December 2012

IMF Research Bulletin, December 2012
Author: International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 14
Release: 2012-12-14
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1475540868

The Research Summaries in the December 2012 IMF Research Bulletin look at "Market Failures and Macroprudential Policy" (Giovanni Favara and Lev Ratnovski) and "Measurement Matters for House Price Indices" (Mick Silver). The Q&A column looks at "Seven Questions on Turning Points of the Global Business Cycle." The Bulletin also includes a listing of recent IMF Working Papers and Staff Discussion Notes, as well as a list of the top-viewed articles for the first three issues of IMF Economic Review in 2012. Information is also included on a call for papers for the conference "Asia: Challenges of Stability and Growth" to be held in Seoul in 2013.