High Resolution Coupling And Initialization To Improve Predictability And Predictions In Climate Models Workshop September 30 October 2 2015
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| Author | : National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine |
| Publisher | : National Academies Press |
| Total Pages | : 351 |
| Release | : 2016-08-22 |
| Genre | : Science |
| ISBN | : 0309388805 |
As the nation's economic activities, security concerns, and stewardship of natural resources become increasingly complex and globally interrelated, they become ever more sensitive to adverse impacts from weather, climate, and other natural phenomena. For several decades, forecasts with lead times of a few days for weather and other environmental phenomena have yielded valuable information to improve decision-making across all sectors of society. Developing the capability to forecast environmental conditions and disruptive events several weeks and months in advance could dramatically increase the value and benefit of environmental predictions, saving lives, protecting property, increasing economic vitality, protecting the environment, and informing policy choices. Over the past decade, the ability to forecast weather and climate conditions on subseasonal to seasonal (S2S) timescales, i.e., two to fifty-two weeks in advance, has improved substantially. Although significant progress has been made, much work remains to make S2S predictions skillful enough, as well as optimally tailored and communicated, to enable widespread use. Next Generation Earth System Predictions presents a ten-year U.S. research agenda that increases the nation's S2S research and modeling capability, advances S2S forecasting, and aids in decision making at medium and extended lead times.
| Author | : Andrew Robertson |
| Publisher | : Elsevier |
| Total Pages | : 588 |
| Release | : 2018-10-19 |
| Genre | : Science |
| ISBN | : 012811715X |
The Gap Between Weather and Climate Forecasting: Sub-seasonal to Seasonal Prediction is an ideal reference for researchers and practitioners across the range of disciplines involved in the science, modeling, forecasting and application of this new frontier in sub-seasonal to seasonal (S2S) prediction. It provides an accessible, yet rigorous, introduction to the scientific principles and sources of predictability through the unique challenges of numerical simulation and forecasting with state-of-science modeling codes and supercomputers. Additional coverage includes the prospects for developing applications to trigger early action decisions to lessen weather catastrophes, minimize costly damage, and optimize operator decisions. The book consists of a set of contributed chapters solicited from experts and leaders in the fields of S2S predictability science, numerical modeling, operational forecasting, and developing application sectors. The introduction and conclusion, written by the co-editors, provides historical perspective, unique synthesis and prospects, and emerging opportunities in this exciting, complex and interdisciplinary field. - Contains contributed chapters from leaders and experts in sub-seasonal to seasonal science, forecasting and applications - Provides a one-stop shop for graduate students, academic and applied researchers, and practitioners in an emerging and interdisciplinary field - Offers a synthesis of the state of S2S science through the use of concrete examples, enabling potential users of S2S forecasts to quickly grasp the potential for application in their own decision-making - Includes a broad set of topics, illustrated with graphic examples, that highlight interdisciplinary linkages
| Author | : National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine |
| Publisher | : National Academies Press |
| Total Pages | : 717 |
| Release | : 2019-01-20 |
| Genre | : Science |
| ISBN | : 0309467578 |
We live on a dynamic Earth shaped by both natural processes and the impacts of humans on their environment. It is in our collective interest to observe and understand our planet, and to predict future behavior to the extent possible, in order to effectively manage resources, successfully respond to threats from natural and human-induced environmental change, and capitalize on the opportunities â€" social, economic, security, and more â€" that such knowledge can bring. By continuously monitoring and exploring Earth, developing a deep understanding of its evolving behavior, and characterizing the processes that shape and reshape the environment in which we live, we not only advance knowledge and basic discovery about our planet, but we further develop the foundation upon which benefits to society are built. Thriving on Our Changing Planet presents prioritized science, applications, and observations, along with related strategic and programmatic guidance, to support the U.S. civil space Earth observation program over the coming decade.
| Author | : William Lahoz |
| Publisher | : Springer Science & Business Media |
| Total Pages | : 710 |
| Release | : 2010-07-23 |
| Genre | : Science |
| ISBN | : 3540747036 |
Data assimilation methods were largely developed for operational weather forecasting, but in recent years have been applied to an increasing range of earth science disciplines. This book will set out the theoretical basis of data assimilation with contributions by top international experts in the field. Various aspects of data assimilation are discussed including: theory; observations; models; numerical weather prediction; evaluation of observations and models; assessment of future satellite missions; application to components of the Earth System. References are made to recent developments in data assimilation theory (e.g. Ensemble Kalman filter), and to novel applications of the data assimilation method (e.g. ionosphere, Mars data assimilation).
| Author | : Douw G. Steyn |
| Publisher | : Springer |
| Total Pages | : 640 |
| Release | : 2016-02-10 |
| Genre | : Science |
| ISBN | : 3319244787 |
Current developments in air pollution modelling are explored as a series of contributions from researchers at the forefront of their field. This newest contribution on air pollution modelling and its application is focused on local, urban, regional and intercontinental modelling; data assimilation and air quality forecasting; model assessment and evaluation; aerosol transformation. Additionally, this work also examines the relationship between air quality and human health and the effects of climate change on air quality. The work is comprised of selected papers presented at the 34th International Technical Meeting on Air Pollution Modelling and its Application held in Montpellier, France in 2015. The book is intended as reference material for students and professors interested in air pollution modelling at the graduate level as well as researchers and professionals involved in developing and utilizing air pollution models.
| Author | : National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine |
| Publisher | : National Academies Press |
| Total Pages | : 187 |
| Release | : 2016-07-28 |
| Genre | : Science |
| ISBN | : 0309380979 |
As climate has warmed over recent years, a new pattern of more frequent and more intense weather events has unfolded across the globe. Climate models simulate such changes in extreme events, and some of the reasons for the changes are well understood. Warming increases the likelihood of extremely hot days and nights, favors increased atmospheric moisture that may result in more frequent heavy rainfall and snowfall, and leads to evaporation that can exacerbate droughts. Even with evidence of these broad trends, scientists cautioned in the past that individual weather events couldn't be attributed to climate change. Now, with advances in understanding the climate science behind extreme events and the science of extreme event attribution, such blanket statements may not be accurate. The relatively young science of extreme event attribution seeks to tease out the influence of human-cause climate change from other factors, such as natural sources of variability like El Niño, as contributors to individual extreme events. Event attribution can answer questions about how much climate change influenced the probability or intensity of a specific type of weather event. As event attribution capabilities improve, they could help inform choices about assessing and managing risk, and in guiding climate adaptation strategies. This report examines the current state of science of extreme weather attribution, and identifies ways to move the science forward to improve attribution capabilities.
| Author | : National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine |
| Publisher | : National Academies Press |
| Total Pages | : 83 |
| Release | : 2017-04-24 |
| Genre | : Science |
| ISBN | : 0309456002 |
The sea ice surrounding Antarctica has increased in extent and concentration from the late 1970s, when satellite-based measurements began, until 2015. Although this increasing trend is modest, it is surprising given the overall warming of the global climate and the region. Indeed, climate models, which incorporate our best understanding of the processes affecting the region, generally simulate a decrease in sea ice. Moreover, sea ice in the Arctic has exhibited pronounced declines over the same period, consistent with global climate model simulations. For these reasons, the behavior of Antarctic sea ice has presented a conundrum for global climate change science. The National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine held a workshop in January 2016, to bring together scientists with different sets of expertise and perspectives to further explore potential mechanisms driving the evolution of recent Antarctic sea ice variability and to discuss ways to advance understanding of Antarctic sea ice and its relationship to the broader ocean-climate system. This publication summarizes the presentations and discussions from the workshop.
| Author | : Gilbert Brunet |
| Publisher | : |
| Total Pages | : 471 |
| Release | : 2015 |
| Genre | : Climatic changes |
| ISBN | : 9789263111562 |
"This book collects together White Papers that have been written to describe the state of the science and to discuss the major challenges for making further advances. The authors of each chapter have attempted to draw together key aspects of the science that was presented at WWOSC-2014. The overarching theme of this book and of WWOSC-2014 is 'Seamless Prediction of the Earth System: from minutes to months'. The book is structured with chapters that address topics regarding: Observations and Data Assimilation; Predictability and Processes; Numerical Prediction of the Earth System; Weather-related Hazards and Impacts. This book marks a point in time and the knowledge that has been accumulating on weather science. It aims to point the way to future developments"--Preface.
| Author | : Ian T. Jolliffe |
| Publisher | : John Wiley & Sons |
| Total Pages | : 257 |
| Release | : 2003-08-01 |
| Genre | : Science |
| ISBN | : 0470864419 |
This handy reference introduces the subject of forecastverification and provides a review of the basic concepts,discussing different types of data that may be forecast. Each chapter covers a different type of predicted quantity(predictand), then looks at some of the relationships betweeneconomic value and skill scores, before moving on to review the keyconcepts and summarise aspects of forecast verification thatreceive the most attention in other disciplines. The book concludes with a discussion on the most importanttopics in the field that are the subject of current research orthat would benefit from future research. An easy to read guide of current techniques with real life casestudies An up-to-date and practical introduction to the differenttechniques and an examination of their strengths andweaknesses Practical advice given by some of the world?s leadingforecasting experts Case studies and illustrations of actual verification and itsinterpretation Comprehensive glossary and consistent statistical andmathematical definition of commonly used terms
| Author | : Eugenia Kalnay |
| Publisher | : Cambridge University Press |
| Total Pages | : 368 |
| Release | : 2003 |
| Genre | : Mathematics |
| ISBN | : 9780521796293 |
This book, first published in 2002, is a graduate-level text on numerical weather prediction, including atmospheric modeling, data assimilation and predictability.
